the last couple games could have a huge swing
If Lovie beats Iowa, If Fleck does not win the West
This is exactly what I was thinking when I posted this. These last two (or possibly three in some cases) games could swing this in a big way. My thoughts on each of the plausible contenders:
P.J. Fleck, Minnesota: Games remaining, @NU, vsUW:
IMHO, if the Gophers beat Wisconsin to get to the B1GCG, this award will go to Fleck. Even if they lose the Wisconsin game, he'll have a case depending on how the others finish up.
Lovie Smith, Illinois: Games remaining, @IA, vsNU:
Smith's Illinois team already has one BIG scalp with the UW win and if they take down Iowa as well, that will make a very strong case for COTY.
Tom Allen, Indiana: Games remaining, vsM, @PU:
Tom Allen's Hoosiers achieved bowl eligibility in October which is a minor miracle in Bloomington. The major weakness in Allen's case as compared to Fleck and Smith is that the Hoosiers lack a signature win. Fleck/MN have PSU, Smith/IL have UW, Allen/IU have . . . a 4-6 Nebraska team? I think that for Allen to be a serious contender the Hoosiers are going to have to beat the Wolverines this weekend.
Paul Chryst, Wisconsin: Games remaining, vs PU, @MN:
Chryst is hurt by the fact that Wisconsin has generally higher expectations that MN/IL/IU so finishing even with them isn't enough. Chryst has to exceed their achievements significantly and I'm not honestly sure that is possible at this point but if IL loses to Iowa, IU loses to M, and the Badgers win out there would be at least a decent case for Chryst.
James Franklin, Penn State: Games remaining, @tOSU, vs RU:
Franklin has the same problem that Chryst has. Expectations in Happy Valley are pretty high and the Nittany Lions already lost a game. A win over Ohio State would help a lot but I don't know that it would be enough to surpass Smith, Allen, and the Chryst/Fleck winner.