2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[Brutus Buckeye]

Th John's Hopkins cancellation blows my mind. My old HS can draw a bigger basketball crowd than the four local D3s combined.

[MaximumSam]

Wow.  Ivy doesn't lose a ton probably, it's just 4 teams, and is relatively new.  But you do wonder where this is headed.

It does.  OSU cancelled all classes until March 30.  The way things are trending I think it's a real question what the NCAA tourney looks like.

[medinabuckeye1]

Are we doing a Big Ten Fantasy game this year or is it too difficult to put together?

I really miss that game!  

With the teams so bunched up this year, I think it would be a real crapshoot if we did it this year because I don't feel all that confident in any result outside of Wednesday's games.  

If we were doing that game this year I would be all-in on Minnesota and Indiana because I think they have easily the highest chance of playing at least two games.  They should obviously beat NU and UNL respectively and I think they might have a better than 50/50 chance to upset Iowa and Penn State respectively.  

If either of them were to win both Wednesday and Thursday that would guarantee them at least three games which is the most that UW, MSU, UMD, or IL could possibly do.  As far as the ten teams not playing on Wednesday, I wouldn't know who to pick:

• Wisconsin plays either M or RU on Friday.  I think UW is a better team, but not by so much that I would be completely confident in a Badger win.  Wisconsin did lose to Rutgers in Picastaway.  
• Michigan State plays either tOSU or PU on Friday.  Same here, I think MSU is a better team but not by so much that I would be completely confident in a Spartan win.  Michigan State did lose to Purdue in West Lafayette.  
• Maryland plays either PSU, IU, or UNL on Friday.  I'm oddly more confident in Maryland winning Friday than UW or MSU simply because I think there is a decent chance that Maryland will be playing a worn out Indiana team that is playing their third game in three days while there is no chance of UW or MSU getting a team playing their third game in three days.  Still, I'm not completely confident because that is far from guaranteed and UMD did lose to PSU in the regular season.  
• Illinois plays either IA, MN, or NU on Friday.  Same as Maryland, I like their odds because I think there is a decent chance that it will end up being a worn out Minnesota squad but that would also be a desperate and rolling Minnesota squad so who knows.  Also, Illinois did lose in Iowa City and barely beat the Hawkeyes at home.  
• Iowa plays either MN or NU on Thursday.  As noted above, I generally think that playing in your second game is a slight advantage while playing in your third is a disadvantage.  The MN/NU winner will be playing their second game.  
• Penn State plays either IU or UNL on Thursday.  See above about second games.  Also, PSU lost in Bloomington.  
• Ohio State plays Purdue on Thursday.  Ohio State won the regular season game handily but that was in Columbus.  This will be a virtual home game for Purdue and the Boilermakers have their backs against the wall.  
• Rutgers plays Michigan on Thursday.  The Scarlet Knights lost twice to Michigan (once in Picastaway, once in MSG).  Maybe the third time will be a charm, or maybe Michigan is just better.  
• Michigan plays Rutgers on Thursday.  I like Michigan in this game, but they might be complacent while Rutgers may be more fired up for the game.  
• Purdue plays Ohio State on Thursday.  When discussing Ohio State I mentioned that the Boilermakers' backs are against the wall.  They are and that could be a bad thing for Ohio State . . . or it could be a bad thing for Purdue.  Desperation can bring out the best or make a team collapse you just never know.  Maybe Purdue will play tight (see @bwarbiany 's post upthread) while the Buckeyes play well with nothing to lose.  

All fourteen teams will be playing a team good enough to beat them in the BTT opener.  Twelve (IU and MN excluded) will be playing an NCAA Tournament caliber team in their BTT opener.  The only things that would shock me would be wins by NU or UNL and even that wouldn't be THAT shocking.  I could imagine IU or MN playing too tight and getting run over by a Wildcat or Cornhusker squad with nothing to lose.  

[847badgerfan]

UW did lose to RU on the road, before Micah Potter and with Kobe King. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see UW lose to any team but UNL, and I wouldn't be surprised to see UW beat any other team.

[ELA]

UW did lose to RU on the road, before Micah Potter and with Kobe King. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see UW lose to any team but UNL, and I wouldn't be surprised to see UW beat any other team.

Same, aside from Nebraska or Northwestern.  I mean we lost to the 11 seed already.  The 10 seed demolished us.

If MSU won the whole thing, not shocked.  If they lost on Friday?  They are playing either a team that already beat us by 30 or the #8 KenPom team, so there's no way that can be surprising either.

[ELA]

My updated Bracket going into the major conference tournaments

MIDWEST

• #1 Kansas vs. #16 St. Francis(PA)/Norfolk State
• #8 Wichita State vs. #9 East Tennessee State
• #5 Seton Hall vs. #12 Yale
• #4 WISCONSIN vs. #13 Akron
• #3 Creighton vs. #14 Colgate
• #6 MICHIGAN vs. #11 Richmond
• #7 Virginia vs. #10 LSU
• #2 MARYLAND vs. #15 North Dakota State

SOUTH

• #1 Baylor vs. #16 Siena/Prairie View A&M
• #8 INDIANA vs. #9 Colorado
• #5 Butler vs. #12 Stephen F. Austin
• #4 Kentucky vs. #13 Louisiana Tech
• #3 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #14 Belmont
• #6 Houston vs. #11 Texas Tech
• #7 Saint Mary's vs. #10 Xavier
• #2 Duke vs. #15 Texas State

WEST

• #1 Gonzaga vs. #16 Northern Kentucky
• #8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Utah State
• #5 Auburn vs. #12 Providence/Cincinnati
• #4 Oregon vs. #13 New Mexico State
• #3 Louisville vs. #14 Northern Colorado
• #6 IOWA vs. #11 Arizona
• #7 BYU vs. #10 USC
• #2 San Diego State vs. #15 UC Irvine

EAST

• #1 Dayton vs. #16 Winthrop
• #8 RUTGERS vs. #9 Marquette
• #5 West Virginia vs. #12 Liberty
• #4 OHIO STATE vs. #13 Vermont
• #3 Villanova vs. #14 Hofstra
• #6 PENN STATE vs. #11 Texas/Arizona State
• #7 ILLINOIS vs. #10 Florida
• #2 Florida State vs. #15 Bradley

NIT
WEST LAFAYETTE

• #1 PURDUE vs. #8 NC Central
• #4 Furman vs. #5 Tennessee
• #3 NC State vs. #6 Alabama
• #2 Memphis vs. #7 Eastern Washington

CEDAR FALLS

• #1 Northern Iowa vs. #8 Robert Morris
• #4 UCLA vs. #5 Tulsa
• #3 Saint Louis vs. #6 UNC Greensboro
• #2 MINNESOTA vs. #7 Miami

STILLWATER

• #1 Oklahoma State vs. #8 Radford
• #4 Connecticut vs. #5 Syracuse
• #3 Arkansas vs. #6 Clemson
• #2 Stanford vs. #7 North Texas

KINGSTON

• #1 Rhode Island vs. #8 Wright State
• #4 Georgia Tech vs. #5 South Carolina
• #3 Notre Dame vs. #6 St. John's
• #2 Mississippi State vs. #7 Little Rock

[medinabuckeye1]

Same, aside from Nebraska or Northwestern.  I mean we lost to the 11 seed already.  The 10 seed demolished us.

If MSU won the whole thing, not shocked.  If they lost on Friday?  They are playing either a team that already beat us by 30 or the #8 KenPom team, so there's no way that can be surprising either.

This.  

Your post is the short version of what I meant for the 12 teams not including NU and UNL.  Any of the other 12 could get hot and win this thing or go cold and lose in their first game.  I feel like neither of those extremes would be surprising for any of these teams.  

[847badgerfan]

I don't think Minnesota or Indiana can get hot and win it. Not with having to play tomorrow.

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't think Minnesota or Indiana can get hot and win it. Not with having to play tomorrow.

I think you are *PROBABLY* right but I don't think it is because they aren't good enough, I think it is because it is just REALLY hard to win five games in five days.  They would more than likely end up running into a good team playing their first or second game and lose.  

That said, I said "*PROBABLY*" because I do think they would have a chance if they got hot AND lucky.  

Here is what I mean:
In my projection above I have both Minnesota and Indiana winning their first two games (against NU/IA and UNL/PSU) respectively then losing their third game against IL/UMD.  That would be a tough game for either of them particularly considering that IL/UMD would be well rested and playing their first game while MN/IU would be playing their third game in three days.  That said, both IL and UMD are capable of stinking up a game so I do think that it *COULD* happen for MN or IU. 

Even if MN or IU got past IL/UMD the problem is that then they would have to play their fourth game in four days against (probably) UW/MSU playing just their second game.  I think that MN/IU would absolutely lose if they got to the semi-final on Saturday and had to play UW/MSU.  However, if UW/MSU got upset by M/RU/tOSU/PU then I could see MN/IU going the distance.  In that case the semi-final would still be MN/IU's fourth game in four days but it would be their opponent's third game in three days.  

As I see it, playing in your third game against a team playing their first or in your fourth against a team playing their second is a substantial disadvantage but playing in your fourth against a team playing their third is much less of a factor.  

Supposing that MN or IU got through their first three games then got lucky and got M/RU or tOSU/PU instead of UW/MSU and won the semi-final on Saturday that would advance them to the Championship Game on Sunday where they would be playing their fifth game in five days against a team playing either their third (UW/IL/MSU/UMD), fourth (IA/PSU/tOSU/RU/M/PU), or fifth (MN/IU/NU/UNL) game.  At that point everybody is tired.  

So I think that either of them *COULD* win it, but in addition to them getting hot it would also require:

• IL or UMD having a real clunker of a game in the quarter-final on Friday, and
• UW or MSU getting upset by RU/M/tOSU/PU.  

[ELA]

I'll look incredibly stupid, but I'll take MSU over Illinois in the final.  All chalk, except Michigan over Rutgers on Thursday; Penn State over Maryland on Friday; and Illinois over Wisconsin on Saturday.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Pretty sure Medina already guaranteed an OSU-Michigan CCG.

[847badgerfan]

Pretty sure Medina already guaranteed an OSU-Michigan CCG.

I thought Delany guaranteed that back in 2012, no?

[ELA]

It's really the only smart choice to keep us all safe


https://twitter.com/Sheehan_Sports/status/1237541836152946688?s=19

[Kris60]

I have no memory of a WCC Championship Game that wasn’t a St Mary’s/Gonzaga matchup.  It’s like the Lions on Thanksgiving.