2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[3degrees]

RU is #24 in AP/KenPom and #18 in NCAA NET. On the road against a tough Iowa team next - should be interesting.

[medinabuckeye1]

I was actually mildly encouraged. Defense wasn't great, but after a very passive start they played well offensively, albeit missed a lot of very makable shots.

The extended scoring draughts are still a major issue.

• More than seven minutes into the game the Buckeyes had just four points. That is on pace for 23 points per game.
• Almost 12 minutes into the game the Buckeyes had seven points. That is on pace for 23 points per game. 

From that point on (21-7 almost 12 minutes into the game) the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions each scored 69 points in about 28 minutes, on pace for 99 points per game each.

But for the terrible start by the Buckeyes, it would have been a great game. Most teams, this one obviously included simply cannot afford to forget to score for eight minutes in a 40 minute game. 

[MaximumSam]

The extended scoring draughts are still a major issue.

• More than seven minutes into the game the Buckeyes had just four points. That is on pace for 23 points per game.
• Almost 12 minutes into the game the Buckeyes had seven points. That is on pace for 23 points per game.

From that point on (21-7 almost 12 minutes into the game) the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions each scored 69 points in about 28 minutes, on pace for 99 points per game each.

But for the terrible start by the Buckeyes, it would have been a great game. Most teams, this one obviously included simply cannot afford to forget to score for eight minutes in a 40 minute game.

They were terrible to start the game and had the same problems as earlier, Which is that they seemed to tentative on offense, not pulling the trigger and instead just looking to pass. But they got that sorted out. Hopefully they can keep that going really need to go 3-0 over the next three.

[medinabuckeye1]

They were terrible to start the game and had the same problems as earlier, Which is that they seemed to tentative on offense, not pulling the trigger and instead just looking to pass. But they got that sorted out. Hopefully they can keep that going really need to go 3-0 over the next three.

Agreed, they need to keep that going.  They have sunk to unranked and 2-5 in conference.  The next three (vsMN, @NU, vsIU) are all projected wins and they *SHOULD* win, but none of those are complete gimmies either.  The concern is that after that they go on the road for Michigan and Wisconsin back-to-back.  Both of those are projected losses.  If they win the next three to get to 5-5 then even losing both in Ann Arbor and Madison wouldn't be THAT bad as they'd still be 5-7 but if they slip up in one of these next three then they might never get back to .500 in the league.  

[medinabuckeye1]

This week (Tues-Thursday) each B1G team plays exactly one B1G game.  They are:

• Maryland(even) at Northwestern(even) tonight at 7 on FS1:  We project a Maryland win.  If Northwestern were to pull off the upset it wouldn't really change our tiers as it would simply move them to +1 and UMD to -1.  
• Illinois(+1) at Purdue(-1) tonight at 7 on ESPNU:  We project a Purdue win.  If Illinois were to win it would move them to +1 and PU to -2 and we might have to make some changes in the tiers.  The problem is that both of Illinois' upsets would still be upsets even if we moved them up and both of Purdue's upsets would still be upsets even if we moved them down.  
• Nebraska(+2) at Wisconsin(+1) tonight at 9 on BTN:  We project a Wisconsin win.  If Nebraska were to win it would move them to +3 and Wisconsin to even.  At that point we might need to move Nebraska up.  The problem is that all three of their upsets would be upsets even if we did move them up and they lost at home to Rutgers which would become an upset if we did.  
• Penn State(-1) at Michigan(even) Wednesday at 7 on BTN:  We project a Michigan win.  If Penn State were to win it would just move them to even and Michigan to -1 so no change to the tiers.  
• Rutgers(even) at Iowa(-1) Wednesday at 9 on BTN:  We project an Iowa win.  If Rutgers were to win it would move them to +1 and Iowa to -2.  At that point we would need to move Iowa down a tier.  
• Minnesota(even) at Ohio State(-1) Thursday at 6:30 on FS1:  We project an Ohio State win.  If Minnesota were to win it would move them to +1 and Ohio State to -2.  At that point we might need to move Ohio State down but the problem is that even if we did, both of their upsets would still be upsets.  
• Michigan state(even) at Indiana(even) Thursday at 8:30 on FS1:  We project a Michigan State win.  If Indiana were to win it would move them to +1 and MSU to -1 and possibly necessitate moving Indiana up to tier-2.  

[ELA]

Updated weekly Massey composite rankings (54 rankings)

• Kansas (2)
• Baylor (3)
• Duke (1)
• Gonzaga (6)
• Dayton (8)
• San Diego State (10)
• Louisville (14)
• MICHIGAN STATE (9)
• West Virginia (7)
• Seton Hall (15)
• Florida State (12)
• Butler (4)
• MARYLAND (13)
• Oregon (11)
• Arizona (21)
• Auburn (5)
• Villanova (19)
• IOWA (24)
• Colorado (18)
• RUTGERS (-)
• Kentucky (20)
• Houston (-)
• OHIO STATE (17)
• Memphis (-)
• Arkansas (23)

• 30. Michigan (22)
• 32. Wisconsin (28)
• 34. Penn State (35)
• 37. Indiana (31)
• 38. Illinois (34)
• 41. Purdue (33)
• 42. Minnesota (39)
• 132. Northwestern (127)
• 149. Nebraska (141)

[847badgerfan]

If Nebraska wins tonight, I propose we blow up the tiers and just go by gut, game by game. Screw it.

[medinabuckeye1]

This year is a crapshoot. There's just not enough differentiation that the tier system works the way it should, IMHO. We have maybe a few teams that are bordering on excellent [not elite], and then a huge middle group that's very, very good.

I don't know what to think.

If Nebraska wins tonight, I propose we blow up the tiers and just go by gut, game by game. Screw it.

Your comment reminded me that I never got back to @bwarbiany 's similar comment from almost a week ago.  

Last year there were 33 upsets out of 140 games.  That is roughly 23.57% of games being upsets or roughly one upset for every fourth game.  We are WAY below that so far this year.  So far there have been 49 games (each team has played seven except MN-8 and M-6 so it works out to seven per team).  So far we only have five upsets which is 10.20% of games being upsets or roughly one upset for every 10 games.  

As crazy as it seems, this season is matching our projections better than last season by a large margin.  

[mcwterps1]

I see NW has those crappy rims. 

Maryland will get blown out again. 

Unreal. 

[ELA]

Purdue is quite ungood against seemingly everyone but MSU

[Kris60]

Nice little brawl to end Kansas-K St. DeSousa had a chair over his head getting ready to go full Ric Flair when someone snatched it from him.

[NickSmith4Three]

Pretty nice second half at Purdue there.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Illinois is pretty good. Cockburn is legit. Hope he goes pro so I never have to see him again lol! 

I don't understand how Purdue can have four offensive rebounds, around the rim, in a single possession, and come up with zero points. 

[mcwterps1]

Illinois is pretty good. Cockburn is legit. Hope he goes pro so I never have to see him again lol!

I don't understand how Purdue can have four offensive rebounds, around the rim, in a single possession, and come up with zero points.

Said that start of the year. 

And, how do you think Maryland GETS so many rebounds in a game.

Sooo many missed layups.