2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[mcwterps1]

Obviously, not how I thought it would end.

You guys know your team better than I know mine.

I've seen them play good defense before, but I've never seen them shoot the three in the first-half as well as they did.

Very oddly officiated game on both sides. Some of those calls were wierd.

[TyphonInc]

Remember when Ohio State was 11-1 and in the top-5?That was fun.

Now 11-4, three games back in the league and barely clinging to a spot in the top-25 with a trip to Bloomington looming.

I've never seen a team go from having a legitimate argument to be #1 to not even having an argument to be ranked at all this quickly.

Didn't the Bucks do this last January as well?

[ELA]

I would suggest not playing road games in the Big Ten this year if at all avoidable.

[ELA]

He's still got it


https://twitter.com/DickieV/status/1214741955864862721?s=19

[betarhoalphadelta]

[medinabuckeye1]

Nebraska's home win over Iowa was an "upset" per the tiers.  At this point Nebraska is +2 with home wins over Iowa and Purdue.  The problem is that we would have to move them up two spots to eliminate those upsets and the Cornhuskers also have a home loss to Rutgers which would become an upset if we moved them up even one tier. 

• Nebraska's win moves their projection up to 3-17 but still leaves them in 13th place. 
• Iowa's loss moves them out of a projected tie for 5th/6th at 12-8 with PSU and into a projected tie for 6th/7th with PU at 11-9.  

Nebraska (+2) and Ohio State (-2) are the only two schools outside of +/-1. 

At this point I think it is safe to assume that the Buckeyes WILL lose in Bloomington this weekend and when they do, I will move them down to tier-2.  The difference between tier-1 and tier-2 is the projected result in road games against tier-3 teams.  There are five such potential games and here is Ohio State's schedule/results in those five:

• Rutgers:  Not played
• Illinois:  Not played
• Minnesota:  Lost
• Indiana:  Saturday, January 11
• Wisconsin:  Sunday, February 9

Thus, once the Buckeyes lose in Bloomington they will be 0-2 in these games with only one more to play and they will need to be moved down to tier-2 which will eliminate the IU and MN upsets and get the Buckeyes back within +/-1.  

[MaximumSam]

At this point I think it is safe to assume that the Buckeyes WILL lose in Bloomington this weekend and when they do, I will move them down to tier-2.  

I'm not sure why it would be safe to assume that.  For one, there is a chance they get to full strength.  For two, even though they are on a three game losing streak, that's to KenPom's #7, #13, and #21 teams.  Indiana is #42.  These are good ass teams they are playing and even looking mostly like crap they've had chances.

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm not sure why it would be safe to assume that.  For one, there is a chance they get to full strength.  For two, even though they are on a three game losing streak, that's to KenPom's #7, #13, and #21 teams.  Indiana is #42.  These are good ass teams they are playing and even looking mostly like crap they've had chances.

I know, but I attended the WVU game and watched all or part of the other two and if you can't put the spherical thing through the round thing it is pretty difficult to win.  

[ELA]

I mean Maryland is #7 in KenPom, ahead of AP #1 Gonzaga, with a top 10 adjusted efficiency defense

[ELA]

Meant to post this prior to the conference games last night, but updated weekly Massey composite rankings going into the week (53 rankings)

• Duke (2)
• Kansas (1)
• Auburn (5)
• Butler (7)
• MICHIGAN STATE (14)
• San Diego State (8)
• Gonzaga (4)
• Dayton (11)
• MARYLAND (9)
• OHIO STATE (3)
• Baylor (12)
• Oregon (6)
• West Virginia (10)
• Florida State (20)
• Arizona (21)
• Louisville (13)
• PENN STATE (19)
• MICHIGAN (15)
• Wichita State (18)
• Seton Hall (-)
• Villanova (16)
• Arkansas (24)
• BYU (-)
• IOWA (22)
• Colorado (23)

• 29. Wisconsin (46)
• 39. Rutgers (48)
• 40. Minnesota (33)
• 41. Indiana (36)
• 43. Purdue (41)
• 47. Illinois (57)
• 147. Northwestern (148)
• 163. Nebraska (145)

[medinabuckeye1]

I mean Maryland is #7 in KenPom, ahead of AP #1 Gonzaga, with a top 10 adjusted efficiency defense

The Maryland loss, by itself, would not concern me.  It was a projected loss anyway.  However, per BPI (and the composite that you just posted where available), in their last six games Ohio State has:

• Lost 84-71 to Minnesota on the road #36 BPI, #40 Composite
• Defeated SEMO at home 80-48 #324/?
• Defeated Kentucky at a neutral site 71-65 #22/?
• Lost 67-59 to West Virginia at a quasi-neutral site #20/13
• Lost 61-57 to Wisconsin at home #15/29
• Lost 67-55 to Maryland on the road #9/9
• Indiana is #45 in BPI and #41 in the composite.  

The win over #324 SE Missouri is obviously irrelevant.  Even Kentucky is not in the composite top-25 and only barely in the BPI top-25.  I realize that Indiana does not appear to be as good as WVU, UW, and UMD, but they are every bit as good as Minnesota and the Buckeyes lost by 13 in Minneapolis.  At this point I see no good reason to believe that the Buckeyes can suddenly turn this around and win in Bloomington.  

[Abba]

 At this point I see no good reason to believe that the Buckeyes can suddenly turn this around and win in Bloomington. 

How about Holtmann being undefeated against IU so far in his short tenure?

[betarhoalphadelta]

Too early to re-do tiers, but I figured that I might post the current Sagarin projections here.



8 teams are projected to finish within one game of .500 -- That's tight.

Schedule is huge. Michigan misses 5 wins and only 1 loss. Purdue misses 1 win and 5 losses.

Wisconsin, the 5th-best team according to Sagarin's rankings, would finish in a 3-way tie for 9th place.

Purdue, the 11th-best team according to Sagarin's rankings, would finish in a 2-way tie for 4th place.

That said, I think if the ratings are even remotely accurate, the teams in that group of ties towards the top have a lot more opportunity for positive variance (beating a team they "shouldn't" on the road), whereas the teams in the bottom of that group of ties have a lot more opportunity for negative variance.

But this is huge. Nearly any variance could affect teams' opportunities for postseason play, so every game matters.

(Note: this doesn't include any current upsets. Obviously Purdue is already -1 variance in this projection due to the loss at Nebraska, so going forward it would be a 10-10 conference record if the rest of the projections held.)

[ELA]

Indiana narrowly avoids disaster