2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

• tOSU, MSU, UMD, M
• IA, PSU, PU
• IU, MN, IL, UW, RU
• (Empty)
• NU, UNL

I'm okay with this.

Ok, this is what we are going with for now.  
This shows the impact of schedule:

Looking at tier-1:
UMD and MSU get a slight schedule boost missing six games in which we would project them to go 4-2 while tOSU and M get dinged a bit but the schedule missing six games in which we would project them to go 5-1.  

Looking at tier-2:
All three miss games in which we would project them to go 3-3.  

Looking at tier-3:
Rutgers gets a slight schedule boost missing games in which we would project them to go 2-4.  UW, IU,  and IL get dinged slightly, missing games in which we would project them to go 3-3.  Minnesota gets hit hard, missing four wins and only two losses.  

Looking at tier-5 (remember tier-4 is blank):
Both teams miss six projected losses.  

There have been three upsets so far:


Based on all of this, our updated projected final standings / BTT seeds are:

• 16-4 Michigan State (wins tiebreaker based on record against the 12-8 teams)
• 16-4 Maryland
• 14-6 Michigan (wins tiebreaker based on record against the 12-8 teams)
• 14-6 Ohio State
• 12-8 Penn State (wins tiebreaker based on record against the 16-4 teams)
• 12-8 Iowa
• 11-9 Purdue
• 9-11 Illinois (wins tiebreaker based on record against the 14-6 teams - upset over M)
• 9-11 Rutgers
• 8-12 Minnesota (wins tiebreaker based on record against the 14-6 teams - upset over tOSU)
• 8-12 Indiana (loses to MN based on record against the 14-6 teams, beats UW based on record against the 12-8 teams)
• 8-12 Wisconsin
• 2-18 Nebraska
• 1-19 Northwestern

The BTT matchups in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 11, 2020:

• #11 Indiana vs #14 Northwestern, 930pm, BTN
• #12 Wisconsin vs #13 Nebraska, 6pm, BTN

Thursday, March 12, 2020 (pi day!):

• #5 Penn State vs UW/UNL, 2:30pm, BTN
• #6 Iowa vs IU/NU, 8pm, BTN
• #7 Purdue vs #10 Minnesota, 6:30pm, BTN
• #8 Illinois vs #9 Rutgers, noon, BTN

Friday, March 13, 2020:

• #1 Michigan State vs IL/RU, noon, BTN
• #2 Maryland vs PU/MN, 6:30pm, BTN
• #3 Michigan vs IA/IU/NU, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Ohio State vs PSU/UW/UNL, 2:30pm, BTN

Saturday, March 14, 2020:

• MSU/IL/RU vs tOSU/PSU/UW/UNL, 1pm, CBS
• UMD/PU/MN vs M/IA/IU/NU, 3:30pm, CBS

Sunday, March 15, 2020:

• MSU/IL/RU/tOSU/PSU/UW/UNL vs UMD/PU/MN/M/IA/IU/NU, 3:30pm, CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

Based on all of this, our updated projected final standings / BTT seeds are:

• 16-4 Michigan State (wins tiebreaker based on record against the 12-8 teams)
• 16-4 Maryland
• 14-6 Michigan (wins tiebreaker based on record against the 12-8 teams)
• 14-6 Ohio State
• 12-8 Penn State (wins tiebreaker based on record against the 16-4 teams)
• 12-8 Iowa
• 11-9 Purdue
• 9-11 Illinois (wins tiebreaker based on record against the 14-6 teams - upset over M)
• 9-11 Rutgers
• 8-12 Minnesota (wins tiebreaker based on record against the 14-6 teams - upset over tOSU)
• 8-12 Indiana (loses to MN based on record against the 14-6 teams, beats UW based on record against the 12-8 teams)
• 8-12 Wisconsin
• 2-18 Nebraska
• 1-19 Northwestern

If something like this happened it would make for a REALLY interesting B1G Tournament.  As I see this, there would be 12 teams that would be either locks or on the bubble.  Looking at the three worst of that group:
Wednesday:

• Indiana would play NU in a game that they should easily win to get to 9-12 in B1G games
• Wisconsin would play UNL in a game that they should easily win to get to 9-12 in B1G games

Thursday:

• Minnesota would play a likely NCAA bound PU team in a game that could give MN a quality win and get them to 9-12 in B1G games
• Indiana would play a likely NCAA bound and currently ranked IA team in a game that could give IU a quality win and get them to 10-12 in B1G games
• Wisconsin would play a likely NCAA bound and currently ranked PSU team in a game that could give UW a quality win and get them to 10-12 in B1G games

Friday:

• Minnesota would play a NCAA lock and currently #13 UMD team in a game that could give MN a quality win and get them to 10-12 in B1G games
• Indiana would play a NCAA lock and currently #11 M team in a game that could give IU a quality win and get them to 11-12 in B1G games
• Wisconsin would play a NCAA lock and currently #2 tOSU team in a game that could give UW a quality win and get them to 11-12 in B1G games

In this scenario I think that any of those three could make the NCAA without winning the B1G.  They would just need to get to the CG or perhaps not even that.  Even getting to Saturday would involve two quality wins.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

I don't know what that would mean for Purdue...

Assuming a win over Central Michigan, Purdue would finish non-con at 7-4.

Then going 11-9 in conference only gets Purdue to 18-13. 

I've always considered 20+ to be the only real "safe" number for the tournament coming out of the B1G, which would mean winning on Thursday and Friday of the BTT to get to 20-14. Given the strength of the conference and that Purdue would have to play somewhat decently to get to >50% in conference, maybe a single win in the BTT and being 19-14 would get it done. But I can't trust that because the win on Thursday of the BTT will be over an 8-12 team per these projections.

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't know what that would mean for Purdue...

Assuming a win over Central Michigan, Purdue would finish non-con at 7-4.

Then going 11-9 in conference only gets Purdue to 18-13.

I've always considered 20+ to be the only real "safe" number for the tournament coming out of the B1G, which would mean winning on Thursday and Friday of the BTT to get to 20-14. Given the strength of the conference and that Purdue would have to play somewhat decently to get to >50% in conference, maybe a single win in the BTT and being 19-14 would get it done. But I can't trust that because the win on Thursday of the BTT will be over an 8-12 team per these projections.

I usually think of 20+ as "safe" as well, but it varies based on SoS and I think PU would be pretty safe at 19-14 with a single win and probably even in at 18-14 with a first game exit because their only bad win would be the one at Nebraska.  Their 14 losses would be:

• vs Texas
• @ Marquette
• vs FSU (neutral site)
• @ UNL
• vs Butler (neutral site)
• @ IL
• @ M
• @ UMD
• @ RU
• @ IU
• @ tOSU
• @ UW
• @ IA
• B1G Tournament

Other than Nebraska, none of those are really bad and most of them are "good".  Additionally they already have quality wins over two Virginia teams and they would pick up a slew of additional quality home wins in league play.  I'm pretty sure they'd be in at 18-14 and I'd bet on it at 19-14.  

The thing is that it is pretty close to the cut line:  

• If you assume negative upsets in PU's next two B1G home games (vMN, vMSU) then their projection drops to 9-11/16-15 and they'd need a big run in Indy.  
• Conversely, if you assume positive upsets in PU's next two B1G road games (@IL, @M) then their projection jumps to 13-7/20-11 and they'd clearly be a lock heading to Indy.  

[Abba]

I'm pretty sure they'd be in at 18-14 and I'd bet on it at 19-14. 

Yeah, 19-14 would be very comparable to what got the Buckeyes an 11 seed last year.  It was a pretty weak bubble though, so it would depend on what else happens across the country, but yeah I'd probably favor Purdue to get in.

[medinabuckeye1]

I wanted to clarify a few things for any newer followers of this thread:

First, it probably seems completely ridiculous that I do a full projection with projected final standings AND projected BTT match-ups this early.  Frankly, as an overall thing I get that it is.  However, I do it so that a fan of any given team can look and see roughly where their team projects.  The discussion that @bwarbiany and I had above is a great example of this.  By adding in the OOC (which I will add for all 14 teams once that is done), a fan of any team can get a reasonable projection of where their team is likely to end up.  From that, they can get an idea of how important positive or negative upsets are.  

Bwar and any other PU fan can look at this and see that negative upsets could get problematic quickly if they are not offset by positive upsets because Purdue projects fairly close to the bubble.  You can make this same assessment with any of the B1G teams.  Ie, a few negative upsets for UMD/MSU/M/tOSU aren't really a big deal while teams like RU/UW/IU/IL/MN need a few positive upsets to get on the right side of the bubble.  

Second, as we get closer to the end of the season the full BTT projection comes into much better focus.  In the last few weeks fans of each team can start looking at it on a more realistic level.  Ie, "If my team pulls an upset here we'll get a Thursday bye" or "If my team gets upset there we'll lose our Thursday bye", that kind of thing.  

Finally, the biggest reason I started getting involved with this is that the irrationality of the "Talking Heads" always annoyed me.  

This is best explained using an example with a mid-tier team so I chose Iowa:  
Iowa's first seven games in January are all reasonably winnable.  We actually project them to go 6-1 with the lone loss being a neutral site game against PSU in Philly.  Their first seven games in January are:

• The aforementioned neutral site game with PSU which is basically a coin toss
• Two home games against teams that are not as good as IA or at least not significantly better (RU, UW).  We project wins because the games are at home.  
• Two home games against teams that are probably better than IA but where we project an IA win anyway because the teams are not THAT much better (UMD, M).  We project wins because the games are at home.  
• Two road games against the worst two teams in the B1G (NU, UNL).  We project wins because it is NU and UNL.  

It wouldn't be shocking if the Hawkeyes started January 7-0.  If they do, I guarantee that the "talking heads" (and some fans) will be irrationally bullish on Iowa.  There will be crazy talk of a 1-seed and Iowa being the best team in the country.  That wouldn't be rational.  If they do start 7-0 it will be because they won six games that they were projected to win and pulled off one minor upset against a peer at a neutral site.  It would be good for Iowa, but it wouldn't make them the best thing since sliced bread.  


Later in the season Iowa has a rough stretch during which they have three road trips in four games.  From February 13 though February 25 Iowa has:

• Two road games against teams almost as good as the Hawkeyes (IU, MN).  We project losses because the games are on the road.  
• A road game against a team better than IA (MSU).  
• A home game against a team better than IA (tOSU).  

It wouldn't be shocking if the Hawkeyes went 0-4 from February 12-25.  If they do, I guarantee that the "talking heads" (and some fans) will be irrationally bearish on Iowa.  There will be crazy talk of the team missing the NIT and possible coaching searches.  That wouldn't be rational either.  If they do go 0-4 from 2/13/20-2/25/20 it will be because they lost three games they were projected to lose and got upset at home by a team that is probably better than them anyway.  It happens.  It would be bad for Iowa but it wouldn't make them to worst team ever.  

I find that a reasonable projection system like this helps us to temper our enthusiasm when a team like Iowa has a 7-0 stretch and temper our concern when they have an 0-4 stretch.  


If the Hawkeyes do both of the above (7-0 from 1/4/20-1/27/20 and 0-4 from 2/13/20-2/25/20) that will only take one positive upset (the win over PSU in Philly) and one negative upset (the home loss to tOSU).  Thus, their projection (assuming no other upsets) will remain the same, 12-8.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Each B1G team, their OOC record so far, their remaining OOC game, the Worldwide leader's % chance of their winning, their projected final OOC record, and their projected overall record:

• Maryland:  9-1, Bryant, 95.8%, 10-1, 26-5
• Michigan State:  7-3, WMU, 98.5%, 8-3, 24-7
• Michigan:  8-2, UMASS-Lowell, 96.1%, 9-2, 23-8
• Ohio State:  10-0, WVU, 71.3%, 11-0, 25-6
• Iowa:  8-2, KennesawSt, 99.2%, 9-2, 21-10
• Penn State:  9-1, Cornell, 97.3%, 10-1, 22-9
• Purdue:  6-4, CMU, 91.5%, 7-4, 18-13
• Rutgers:  8-2, Caldwell, 99.9%, 9-2, 18-13
• Illinois:  7-3, NCa&t, 98.1%, 8-3, 17-14
• Wisconsin:  5-4, Tenn 37.8% and Rider 89.3%, 6-5, 14-17
• Indiana:  10-0, Arkansas, 66.9%, 11-0, 19-12
• Minnesota:  5-4, FIU, 90.7%, 6-4, 14-16
• Nebraska:  4-6, aTm-CC, 92.3%, 5-6, 7-24
• Northwestern:  5-4, Hartford, 94.4%, 6-4, 7-23

These late December games right before conference play starts back up are just awful.  There are 15 left because Wisconsin has two and each other team has one.  Here they are ranked by how close the Worldwide leader thinks they are:

• Wisconsin with a 62.2% chance to lose to Tennessee
• Indiana with a 66.9% chance to beat Arkansas
• Ohio State with a 71.3% chance to beat West Virginia
• Wisconsin with a 89.3% chance to beat Rider
• Minnesota with a 90.7% chance to beat FIU
• Purdue with a 91.5% chance to beat CMU
• Nebraska with a 92.3% chance to beat aTm-CC
• Northwestern with a 94.4% chance to beat Hartford
• Maryland with a 95.8% chance to beat Bryant
• Michigan with a 96.1% chance to beat UMASS-Lowell
• Penn State with a 97.3% chance to beat Cornell
• Illinois with a 98.1% chance to beat NC A&T
• MSU with a 98.5% chance to beat WMU
• Iowa with a 99.2% chance to beat KennesawSt
• Rutgers with a 99.9% chance to beat Caldwell

[Brutus Buckeye]

So the entire Big Ten will have it's noncon wrapped up by the New Year?

[medinabuckeye1]

I want to compliment the conference on scheduling here because we all (myself included) mention it when they screw something up so it is only fair to give them props when they get something right.  

I've never seen a projection in which SoS had such a minimal impact.  The only team really impacted is Minnesota.  Looking at it by tier:

Tier 1:
These teams would theoretically go 20-6 on a double-round-robin.  Mathematically, if you eliminate six games that *SHOULD* theoretically be 4.62 wins and 1.38 losses.  Obviously you can't eliminate partial wins or losses so the closest you could get is to eliminate either four or five wins and all for teams have either four or five wins eliminated.  

Tier 2:
These teams would theoretically go 15-11 on a double-round-robin.  Mathematically, if you eliminate six games that *SHOULD* theoretically be 3.46 wins and 2.54 losses.  You can't eliminate partial wins or losses so the closest you could get is to eliminate either three or four wins and all three teams have three wins eliminated.  

Tier 3: 
These teams would theoretically go 11-15 on a double-round-robin.  Mathematically, if you eliminate six games that *SHOULD* theoretically be 2.54 wins and 3.46 losses.  You can't eliminate partial wins or losses so the closest you could get is to eliminate either two or three wins and four of the five have either two or three wins eliminated.  Only Minnesota is way off, losing four projected wins and only two projected losses.  

Tier 5:
These teams would theoretically go 1-25 on a double-round-robin.  Mathematically, if you eliminate six games that *SHOULD* theoretically be 0.23 wins and 5.77 losses.  You can't eliminate partial wins or losses so the closest you could get is to eliminate zero or one wins and both of these teams have zero wins eliminated.  

Minnesota is the only team in the league with more than a one-game difference in projected record attributable to in-conference SoS.  

[medinabuckeye1]

So the entire Big Ten will have it's noncon wrapped up by the New Year?

I didn't scour each schedule carefully so I could have missed a random mid-season OOC game, but I didn't see any on a quick review.  

[mcwterps1]

Yep. 

Maryland is done. 

Both Mitchell twins enter transfer portal, after a supposed fight erupted with an upperclassman.

Think it's about time Maryland goes coach shopping. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Wow!

Wisconsin is all over Tennessee in Knoxville. 

The Badgers were dogs in this game but they are up by 25 points late in the game.

[847badgerfan]

Hey look! A road win for Big Red!!

[medinabuckeye1]

Welp, it is fully BB season now for all but a few of our B1G fanbases. 

Welcome to the BB thread. If you haven't been paying attention:

• Preseason #1 MSU has had Izzo's typical early season under-performance. Don't let it fool you, they do that every year.
• Ohio State has been the big positive surprise so far. The Buckeyes are up to #2 with a nice collection of quality wins.
• Our league won the Challenge with the ACC and looks to be absolutely loaded. 
• Right now most brackets are showing us with ~8 teams in and another 2-3 on the cusp. Really, only NU and UNL are completely out. Everybody else has at least a shot.

Ohio State and Indiana have quality games today that they should win but could go either way. Other than that there are a few body bag games that B1G teams should cruise through today and over the next couple of days. After that league play resumes on January 2.

So far in league play home teams are 13-1. That can't be maintained but it is an accurate reflection of the league's relative balance.