I wanted to clarify a few things for any newer followers of this thread:
First, it probably seems completely ridiculous that I do a full projection with projected final standings AND projected BTT match-ups this early. Frankly, as an overall thing I get that it is. However, I do it so that a fan of any given team can look and see roughly where their team projects. The discussion that
@bwarbiany and I had above is a great example of this. By adding in the OOC (which I will add for all 14 teams once that is done), a fan of any team can get a reasonable projection of where their team is likely to end up. From that, they can get an idea of how important positive or negative upsets are.
Bwar and any other PU fan can look at this and see that negative upsets could get problematic quickly if they are not offset by positive upsets because Purdue projects fairly close to the bubble. You can make this same assessment with any of the B1G teams. Ie, a few negative upsets for UMD/MSU/M/tOSU aren't really a big deal while teams like RU/UW/IU/IL/MN need a few positive upsets to get on the right side of the bubble.
Second, as we get closer to the end of the season the full BTT projection comes into much better focus. In the last few weeks fans of each team can start looking at it on a more realistic level. Ie, "If my team pulls an upset here we'll get a Thursday bye" or "If my team gets upset there we'll lose our Thursday bye", that kind of thing.
Finally, the biggest reason I started getting involved with this is that the irrationality of the "Talking Heads" always annoyed me.
This is best explained using an example with a mid-tier team so I chose Iowa:
Iowa's first seven games in January are all reasonably winnable. We actually project them to go 6-1 with the lone loss being a neutral site game against PSU in Philly. Their first seven games in January are:
- The aforementioned neutral site game with PSU which is basically a coin toss
- Two home games against teams that are not as good as IA or at least not significantly better (RU, UW). We project wins because the games are at home.
- Two home games against teams that are probably better than IA but where we project an IA win anyway because the teams are not THAT much better (UMD, M). We project wins because the games are at home.
- Two road games against the worst two teams in the B1G (NU, UNL). We project wins because it is NU and UNL.
It wouldn't be shocking if the Hawkeyes started January 7-0. If they do, I guarantee that the "talking heads" (and some fans) will be irrationally bullish on Iowa. There will be crazy talk of a 1-seed and Iowa being the best team in the country. That wouldn't be rational. If they do start 7-0 it will be because they won six games that they were projected to win and pulled off one minor upset against a peer at a neutral site. It would be good for Iowa, but it wouldn't make them the best thing since sliced bread.
Later in the season Iowa has a rough stretch during which they have three road trips in four games. From February 13 though February 25 Iowa has:
- Two road games against teams almost as good as the Hawkeyes (IU, MN). We project losses because the games are on the road.
- A road game against a team better than IA (MSU).
- A home game against a team better than IA (tOSU).
It wouldn't be shocking if the Hawkeyes went 0-4 from February 12-25. If they do, I guarantee that the "talking heads" (and some fans) will be irrationally bearish on Iowa. There will be crazy talk of the team missing the NIT and possible coaching searches. That wouldn't be rational either. If they do go 0-4 from 2/13/20-2/25/20 it will be because they lost three games they were projected to lose and got upset at home by a team that is probably better than them anyway. It happens. It would be bad for Iowa but it wouldn't make them to worst team ever.
I find that a reasonable projection system like this helps us to temper our enthusiasm when a team like Iowa has a 7-0 stretch and temper our concern when they have an 0-4 stretch.
If the Hawkeyes do both of the above (7-0 from 1/4/20-1/27/20 and 0-4 from 2/13/20-2/25/20) that will only take one positive upset (the win over PSU in Philly) and one negative upset (the home loss to tOSU). Thus, their projection (assuming no other upsets) will remain the same, 12-8.