2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

That crazy home cooking where Maryland shot twice as many free throws, on the road, and it was only that close because Maryland was intentionally fouling at the end.  Terps had a 21-2 FT edge with 1:50 left in the game.  Penn State shot their first FT of the game with under 4 minutes left.

If that's home cooking, sign me up for that in every MSU road game.

Maryland lost because they turned the ball over too much, and missed too many bunnies.  Can't shoot 30% on 2s, and as an MSU fan I certainly know you can't turn the ball over 20 times.

[medinabuckeye1]

RE the tiers:
We had UMD in tier-2 and PSU in tier-4.  Thus, the PSU win over UMD is an "upset" and changes the projections.  If you leave the tiers as they were, UMD's projection drops to 15-5 (tied with PU for 3rd/4th and UMD wins the tie) while PSU's projection improves to 10-10 (8th).  

Note, we collectively decided to wait until the week of Christmas to update the tiers.  For now we have:

• MSU
• tOSU, UMD, PU
• M, UW, IL
• PSU, IA, IU
• RU, MN
• UNL, NU

We will likely be looking at significant changes in a few weeks.  Between now and Sunday, December 22 each B1G team will complete their first two league games and there are some significant OOC games as well.  Then there are no games involving B1G teams from Monday, December 23 through Friday, December 27.  Then there are OOC games from Saturday, December 28 through Tuesday, NYE.  There are no games involving B1G teams on NYD, then league play resumes on Thursday, January 2.  

The plan is to update the tiers during that five-day break over Christmas from 12/23-12/27.  

[medinabuckeye1]

So will Kansas or OSU be the 5th #1 of the season.

As bad as Kansas looked against Duke in their opener, who would've believed they'd be in this position by mid-December?

There is still a lot of BB to be played before the next AP Poll comes out on December 16.  That said, it should be interesting.  The top-10 and what they have done and who they will play before the next poll:

• 9-0 Louisville:  L 70-57 in NYC to unranked TxTech.  vs Eastern Kentucky on 12/14.  
• 7-1 Kansas:  W 95-68 at home over unranked Milwaukee.  vs UMKC on 12/14.  
• 9-0 Ohio State:  W 106-74 at home over ORV PSU.  at Minnesota on 12/15.  
• 10-0 Maryland:  L76-69 at ORV PSU.
• 8-1 Michigan:  at ILL on 12/11.  vs #10 Oregon on 12/14.  
• 10-1 Gonzaga:  at #15 Zona on 12/14.  
• 9-1 Dook:  off
• 7-1 Kentucky:  vs GaTech on 12/14.  
• 8-1 Virginia:  off
• 7-2 Oregon:  at #5 Michigan on 12/14.  

The contenders for #1 in the 12/16 poll:

• 9-1 Kansas (assuming that they beat UMKC):  Kansas' lone loss was in their opener against Dook in NYC but they are fairly light on quality wins.  
• 11-0 Ohio State (assuming they win in Minneapolis):  The Buckeyes have quality blowout wins over Villanova, at UNC, and the PSU win may become a quality win based on PSU's win over UMD.  
• 10-1 Michigan (assuming they win in Champaign tonight and beat Oregon at home on 12/14):  Michigan's lone loss was at Louisville but it wasn't that close.  They have quality wins over UNC and Gonzaga in the Bahamas and if they are a contender for #1 they'll have another one over Oregon at home.  
• 11-1 Gonzaga (assuming they win in Tucson):  Their loss was to Michigan in the Bahamas but it wasn't that close.  They have quality wins over Oregon (Bahamas), Washington (Seattle), and if they are a contender for #1 they'll have another one over Arizona in Tucson.  
• 9-1 Dook:  The Blue Devils are off so they can't do anything to prove their case but they also can't lose so if there is a lot of carnage they will benefit.  Their lone loss was close but it was to Stephen F. Austin, the kind of loss where you have to look up the opponent to figure out who they are so that isn't good.  They have quality wins over KU and MSU.  
• 8-1 Kentucky (assuming they beat GaTech):  The Wildcats lone loss was close but it was to Evansville, the kind of loss where you have to look up the opponent to figure out who they are so that isn't good.  They have a quality win over MSU.  
• 8-2 Oregon (assuming they win in Ann Arbor):  The Ducks' losses were both close and to good teams in the Bahamas (Gonzaga in OT and UNC by 4).  They have a quality win over Seton Hall and if they are in the discussion for #1 it will be because they also have a quality win on the road over Michigan.  

[ELA]

RE the tiers:
We had UMD in tier-2 and PSU in tier-4.  Thus, the PSU win over UMD is an "upset" and changes the projections.  If you leave the tiers as they were, UMD's projection drops to 15-5 (tied with PU for 3rd/4th and UMD wins the tie) while PSU's projection improves to 10-10 (8th). 

Note, we collectively decided to wait until the week of Christmas to update the tiers.  For now we have:

• MSU
• tOSU, UMD, PU
• M, UW, IL
• PSU, IA, IU
• RU, MN
• UNL, NU

We will likely be looking at significant changes in a few weeks.  Between now and Sunday, December 22 each B1G team will complete their first two league games and there are some significant OOC games as well.  Then there are no games involving B1G teams from Monday, December 23 through Friday, December 27.  Then there are OOC games from Saturday, December 28 through Tuesday, NYE.  There are no games involving B1G teams on NYD, then league play resumes on Thursday, January 2. 

The plan is to update the tiers during that five-day break over Christmas from 12/23-12/27. 

KenPom must still be heavily tied to last year, because MSU is still #4, but I guess the true road win over #17 Seton Hall still plays well.

But anyway, KenPom has

• 1. OSU
• 4. MSU
• 6. Purdue
• 9. Maryland
• 12. Michigan
• 23. PSU
• 27. Indiana
• 30. Iowa
• 43. Illinois
• 49. Wisconsin
• 75. Rutgers
• 77. Minnesota
• 99. Northwestern
• 156. Nebraska

I almost wonder if we have a 5 team top class

• OSU, MSU, Purdue, Maryland, Michigan
• PSU
• Indiana, Iowa
• Illinois, Wisconsin
• Rutgers, Minnesota
• Northwestern, Nebraska

[Brutus Buckeye]

Last year OSU reminded me that a promising start to the season doesn't necessarily carry over into Conference play.

[mcwterps1]

That crazy home cooking where Maryland shot twice as many free throws, on the road, and it was only that close because Maryland was intentionally fouling at the end.  Terps had a 21-2 FT edge with 1:50 left in the game.  Penn State shot their first FT of the game with under 4 minutes left.

If that's home cooking, sign me up for that in every MSU road game.

Maryland lost because they turned the ball over too much, and missed too many bunnies.  Can't shoot 30% on 2s, and as an MSU fan I certainly know you can't turn the ball over 20 times.

Did you watch the game?

I always find it hilarious when you guys equate the free throw shooting as to when what foul happened and how it stopped momentum, or changed the flow.

The end result NEVER shows the entire story.

If that were the case, you could just read the first page and last page of every book and know everything that's going on.

Yes, the Terps turned the ball over way too many times, but there were no calls on PSU until the 10 minute mark. The 3 at the end of the 1st half shouldn't have counted.

I know some of you don't believe that referees can change the momentum or direction of a game, just like at Duke, just like the NBA, like I grew up watching, but you're a little naive.

[Abba]

Illinois a somewhat surprising 1 point favorite over Michigan tonight.  

[847badgerfan]

Man, the Badgers just suck on the road now. Winless so far. They need to grow up, fast.

[Big Beef Tacosupreme]

Did you watch the game?

I always find it hilarious when you guys equate the free throw shooting as to when what foul happened and how it stopped momentum, or changed the flow.

The end result NEVER shows the entire story.

If that were the case, you could just read the first page and last page of every book and know everything that's going on.

Yes, the Terps turned the ball over way too many times, but there were no calls on PSU until the 10 minute mark. The 3 at the end of the 1st half shouldn't have counted.

I know some of you don't believe that referees can change the momentum or direction of a game, just like at Duke, just like the NBA, like I grew up watching, but you're a little naive.

There was some poor officiating in the Maryland-PSU game for sure. 

With that said, there was no question who the better team was.  Maybe Maryland had an off night.

Penn State is now 4-2 in their last 6 games against UMD, 8-2 this season, and 13-4 in their last 17 games.

[MichiFan87]

Disappointing and frustrating game tonight. Too many missed 3s, some bad shots, and awful rebounding.

Only Brooks played well. Livers didn't get enough opportunities, and I have no idea why they played Nunez (he wasn't bad on defense tonight but he did nothing on offense). Wagner also had his worst game yet.

Oregon is next which might be a bad matchup with their size, but we'll see. Fortunately, after that they have two guarantee games against bad teams with no weekday games in between before BigTen play restarts again in January with Sparty.

[847badgerfan]

Road games are a bitch in this conference. Everyone is going to be 9-9.

[medinabuckeye1]

Road games are a bitch in this conference. Everyone is going to be 9-9.

It is interesting that home teams are now 11-0 in B1G games but to be fair, most of those 11 winning home teams were clearly better than their visitor.  In fact, our pre-season tiers correctly projected nine of those games with the only exceptions being:

• PSU's home win over Maryland, and
• Rutgers' home win over Wisconsin.  

I frankly think that both PSU and RU are better than we expected so things should even out somewhat.  

Based on our existing (to be updated) tiers, Wisconsin's upset loss moves them down into a projected tie with Illinois at 11-9 tied for 6th/7th and UW loses that tie.  Rutgers upset win moves them out of a projected tie with MN for 11th/12th and into 11th alone.  

[medinabuckeye1]

One of my long-running pet peeves:

I was looking at Lunardi's latest bracket and, as always, an eastern top-4 team gets shipped way out west for the opening weekend.  In Lunardi's current bracket it is 4-seed Butler getting shipped all the way to Sacramento. 

The problem is that apparently the high-ups at the NCAA need to take a geography class.  In case anyone here has access to them, here is a handy-dandy chart that I made using the timezones of the top-16 teams (top four seeds) in each of the last 10 NCAA tournaments:



Note that on average there are almost 10 teams from the Eastern Time Zone in the top-4 seeds.  There are a little more than four from the Central Time Zone and a grand combined total of two from the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones.  Based on the last ten years, the eight NCAA first round sites SHOULD be allocated as follows:

• EST:  Five sites in four out of five years, four in the other year of the five.  Actual, four this year. 
• CST:  Two sites in four out of five years, three in the other year of the five.  Actual, two this year. 
• MST:  One site two out of five years, zero in the other three of the five.  Actual, none this year. 
• PST:  One site in three out of five years, zero in the other two of the five.  Actual, two this year. 

Note that the MST and PST *SHOULD* have a combined total of just one site not two. 

EDIT:  Fixes MST/PST issue for this year's sites per @bwarbiany 's correction.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

One correction. PST gets two this year , MST gets none. Spokane is PST, as is (obviously) Sacramento.