2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

My daily bracket update, but I'll just post moving in and moving out, and Big Ten teams, with a full update going into the weekend.

• Maryland - remained 2-seed
• Michigan State - moved up from 4-seed to 3-seed
• Ohio State - remained 4-seed
• Penn State - remained 4-seed
• Michigan - moved up from 6-seed to 5-seed
• Iowa - dropped from 5-seed to 6-seed
• Wisconsin - remained 6-seed
• Illinois - dropped from 6-seed to 7-seed
• Indiana - remained 7-seed
• Rutgers - moved up from 10-seed to 9-seed
• Purdue - moved in as a 10-seed

• MOVING IN: Purdue (10-seed), Cincinnati (Play-In)
• MOVING OUT: Rhode Island, Mississippi State

• LAST FOUR BYES: Florida, LSU, Texas Tech, USC
• LAST FOUR IN: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Richmond, Utah State
• FIRST FOUR OUT: Mississippi State, Providence, Rhode Island, Stanford
• NEXT FOUR OUT: Arkansas, Furman, NC State, Tennessee

[ELA]

Next season the Badgers return almost everyone (Pritzl is the only loss), so they should be pretty solid. That said, who on this roster scares an opponent? That's the limitation for this team.

Depending on who stays and who goes, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Indiana and Purdue all appear to return a ton of talent.

If Tillman goes pro, it becomes a "keep the tourney streak alive" type year for MSU.  Granted the last time we had one of those, in 2015, after a loss to Minnesota, to fall to 19-10 with a week left, needed to close with wins over Purdue and Indiana, to even feel like we were getting in.  Team wound up going 8-2 the rest of the way, beating four Top 15 teams (#8 Maryland, #6 Virginia, #13 Oklahoma and #15 Louisville), reaching the BTT final and the Final 4, with the two losses being to the two teams who played for the title (Duke and Wisconsin), and it took a late choke to lose to Wisconsin, in OT.

[medinabuckeye1]

If Minnesota manages to win in Bloomington tonight we will head into the final weekend with none of the BTT seeds locked down unless Northwestern manages to upset Wisconsin in Madison.  I've NEVER seen that before.  

Explanation:
First, on Minnesota/Indiana:  Minnesota is currently in 12th place at 7-11 while Indiana is in 11th at 8-10.  

If Indiana wins then Minnesota will drop to 7-12 which would be two games behind IU, PU, and possibly M.  Thus, the Gophers could not catch any of the teams ahead of them.  At the same time, they would still be at least four games ahead of NU/UNL so they could not be caught either.  

If Minnesota wins then the Gophers and Hoosiers will move into a tie for 11th/12th at 8-11 one game behind PU (and possibly M).  

The rest:

• Between two and four teams will be tied at 13-6.  Any of them could end up with the #1 through #4 seeds.  
• Between zero and two teams will be tied at 12-7.  Either of them could end up ahead of the other.  
• Two or three teams will be tied at 11-8.  Any of them could end up ahead of or behind the others.  
• Between one and three teams will be 10-9.  Any of them could end up ahead of or behind the others and any of them could catch the two or three teams ahead or get caught by the team(s) behind.  
• Between one and three teams will be 9-10.  Any of them could end up ahead of or behind the others and any of them could catch the team(s) ahead or get caught by the team(s) behind.  
• If MN wins then two teams will be tied at 8-11.  Either of them could end up ahead of or behind the other or catch the team(s) ahead.  
• If Northwestern loses then they will either be tied with or a game behind the Cornhuskers.  Either way the bottom two seeds would be up for grabs because NU wins the tiebreaker.  

Why is this?  It is because teams are so bunched up largely due to the parity.  This year our league Champion will have at least six losses.  In prior years:

In 2019 our co-champs were 16-4 and another team was 15-5.  14-6 was only good for 4th place.  

In 2018 our Champion was 16-2 while two more teams were 15-3 and another two were 13-5.  Six losses would have been good for sixth place.  

In 2017 our Champion was 14-4.  Six losses would have been good for a tie for 2nd/3rd/4th.  

In 2016 our Champion was 15-3 and our runner-up was 13-5.  Six losses would have been good for a tie for 3rd/4th/5th/6th/7th.  

In 2015 our Champion was 16-2 and our runner-up was 14-4.  Six losses would have been good for a tie for 3rd/4th/5th/6th.  

In 2014 our Champion was 15-3.  Six losses would have been good for a tie for 2nd/3rd/4th.  

In 2013 our Champion was 14-4 and another two teams were 13-5.  Six losses would have been good for a tie for 4th/5th/6th.  

In 2012 our three co-champs were 13-5.  Six losses would have been good for a tie for 4th/5th.  

In 2011 our Champion was 16-2.  Our runner-up was 14-4 and another team was 13-5.  Six losses would have been good for 4th.  

In 2010 our three co-champs were 14-4 and another team was 13-5.  Six losses would have been good for 5th place.  

[847badgerfan]

Next season the Badgers return almost everyone (Pritzl is the only loss), so they should be pretty solid. That said, who on this roster scares an opponent? That's the limitation for this team.

While I'm on board that Gard has done a great job turning things around--and did several years ago, too, I'm not yet sold on his ability to maintain and improve. That's what Bo did: sustained success and incremental improvement that led to two of the best Badger teams in the history of the program. That's a high bar, but I want to see Gard do this, too.

I'm right in the middle on him right now. Good job with the turnaround, for sure. But the King thing is on him, too--not just King. So I'm waiting and seeing--and happy to see what happens down the stretch. And if the team isn't good out of the gate next season, that's a bad sign for Gard.

Bo Ryan caught a lot of flack until his final years, for never getting past the Elite 8, which he managed to get to only one time until the end. Hell, posters here gave him crap all the time for tourney chokes.

[SFBadger96]

I mean what they heck, only getting to the Elite 8!?!

Unless the Badgers can bridge the talent gap, they won't have many teams like 2014/15, no question.

One of my worries with Gard is his adherence to the swing offense, and how that will turn off players that might otherwise want to be Badgers. Maybe a change there sinks a team that really needs to rely on one system and player development through that system. I don't know. 

I know that I'm not opposed to Gard right now, but I'm also not totally sold. If he keeps the Badgers in the top 4 in the conference, going to the tournament, and occasionally having great teams, then I will be, but I'm not there yet.

[847badgerfan]

Heck, Frank was a late add-on recruit who nobody wanted. Traevon Jackson was in that class too. 

The "star" of the class was Jared Uthoff. Heh.

The next class gave us Dekker and some kid named Zak Showalter. 

[bayareabadger]

I mean what they heck, only getting to the Elite 8!?!

Unless the Badgers can bridge the talent gap, they won't have many teams like 2014/15, no question.

One of my worries with Gard is his adherence to the swing offense, and how that will turn off players that might otherwise want to be Badgers. Maybe a change there sinks a team that really needs to rely on one system and player development through that system. I don't know.

I know that I'm not opposed to Gard right now, but I'm also not totally sold. If he keeps the Badgers in the top 4 in the conference, going to the tournament, and occasionally having great teams, then I will be, but I'm not there yet.

I mean, outside making a big tournament run, what would he have been able to do to sell you? I mean, the 2014/2015 teams were outliers and always will be. This is gonna be a program where being solid perpetually is the main path to being occasionally great.

At the moment, Gard pushed an admittedly inconsistent team to just short of 20 wins. He’s about to add a top-20 recruiting class with three more four-stars coming in after that. Seems fine to me.

(also, UW has kinda already abandoned the swing offense, but I’m guessing you more mean the swing spirit. And I don’t know UW should drop that. Identity matters. In truth, if UW played a more “attractive” style, it’s recruiting isn’t getting that much better. UW will always have a ceiling of sorts there)

[mcwterps1]

Yeah, they only played once last year.  Look at the play by play, all 3 are in the play log in the final minute.

False.  I was right.  Jan 2019.

I think I picked up on your attitude like I didn't know what I was talking about, but there was more than 2 minutes left in the game, down 16, which may seem incredible to some, but I've seen 10 points erased in less than a minute.

He just threw in the towel, sat Cowan and Fernando, and they never came back in.



https://drive.google.com/file/d/1C3kUhFCxCYPqiRHxALmyodDIOOqHlcWG/view

[ELA]

Yeah, you're right.  I didn't realize the game log put 2nd half above 1st half, so I was looking at the first half.

As far as yesterday goes, I don't like Turgeon, but I don't hate that move.  At that point, the chances of winning that game are probably lower than the chances of one of them getting hurt, and you are still playing one more game for a title on Sunday.

[SFBadger96]

Gard's seasons:
1) Took over mid-season, rescued season--great job. 7 seed in the tourney, made it to the Sweet 16. Nice work.
2) 8-seed, made it to the Sweet 16. Suffering from losing the talent left over from the 2015 team? Probably. Nice work.
3) Didn't make NCAA tournament. Bummer. Blame it on Bo's recruiting? Ok.
4) 5-seed, lost in first round to Oregon in the dreaded 5/12 matchup. Disappointing, but a good season.
5) Very promising finish after a difficult start. The Moore situation was horrible. The King situation was bad (and Gard has to own some of it, too). We will see how the tournament goes.

There's a lot of good in there, but it's not overwhelming. This season: great recovery. But I'm not ready to anoint him. Keep him around? Absolutely.

And as for the swing? It has figured heavily in every game I've seen this season.

[847badgerfan]

By all accounts... 

King was just ready for a change and wanted out. Then he started the house on fire on his way out the door, looking to play next season. 

Team trainer (who he thanked in his farewell twitter, by the way) gets fired for telling a story about Joaquim Noah from back in the day - a story which King didn't actually hear, but heard about from the 4 walk-on kids who actually DID hear the story.

Not sure what Gard did, if anything. There is nothing out there. 

Yes, the story referenced Noah's use of the "N" word in a team speech/rant. Should he have told it? Probably not, since it cost him his job. Let it be known that the kids he did tell the story to are still on the team. No word on whether or not those kids or any others listen to rap music in the locker room.




\End rant

[JWilly86]

Re: Gard. If Beilein were interested I'd want them to have that conversation, but I'm not looking to run him out of town because the program has to move on.

[847badgerfan]

Man, I dunno. Bielein always seemed to have more talent than UW and didn't more out of it, save for one season. He missed 3 NCAA tourneys with Michigan, in 12 years. I don't like that hit rate.

[bayareabadger]

Gard's seasons:
1) Took over mid-season, rescued season--great job. 7 seed in the tourney, made it to the Sweet 16. Nice work.
2) 8-seed, made it to the Sweet 16. Suffering from losing the talent left over from the 2015 team? Probably. Nice work.
3) Didn't make NCAA tournament. Bummer. Blame it on Bo's recruiting? Ok.
4) 5-seed, lost in first round to Oregon in the dreaded 5/12 matchup. Disappointing, but a good season.
5) Very promising finish after a difficult start. The Moore situation was horrible. The King situation was bad (and Gard has to own some of it, too). We will see how the tournament goes.

There's a lot of good in there, but it's not overwhelming. This season: great recovery. But I'm not ready to anoint him. Keep him around? Absolutely.

And as for the swing? It has figured heavily in every game I've seen this season.

So he had four good seasons in five, and two good tournament runs in three. I suppose it doesn't overwhelm, but chances that UW lands a coach who overwhelms was pretty small overall. I suppose I don't know what it means to anoint him. He has the pieces to win at least in the low 20s in games next year, and while we can't predict the years after with much ability, the two coming recruiting classes both look relatively strong.

I'm guessing we're arguing past each other to a degree, and I to a degree feel there is a certain level of inconsistency that it now feels missing from the Bo era, but I'm not sure if that's a slight or just a reality that Bo was a coach the quality of which we won't see for a good long while. Bo usually went about 2-3 years between teams you'd call inconsistent and seasons that were trying in one way or another. And his postseason resume was pocked with moments of varying degrees of disappointment. But some of that gets washed over.

Anyway, its a results-based thing. If he misses two tournaments, he's likely out, maybe gets one more chance. And until then, they are where they are. 

(How do you mean they run the swing? The swing at its base is pretty ridged, and they've not don't the pure swing heavily in a while. Pulling up the Minnesota game, I saw little that was swing-ish. The Michigan game had a bit more at the start. Are you actually referring to the pure swing scheme itself, or just the slowed down more patient style UW has long employed?)