2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

In order by projected final record/BTT seed:
Current record, team, first remaining game projected result, last remaining game projected result, projected final record:

• 23-6/13-5 Maryland, @RU-W, vM-W, 25-6/15-5
• 19-10/12-6 Wisconsin, vNU-W, @IU-L, 20-11/13-7
• 21-8/11-7 Penn State, vMSU-W, @NU-W, 23-8/13-7
• 20-9/12-6 Michigan State, @PSU-L, vtOSU-W, 21-10/13-7
• 20-9/12-6 Illinois, @tOSU-L, vIA-W, 21-10/13-7
• 20-9/11-7 Iowa, vPU-W, @IL-L, 21-10/12-8
• 20-9/10-8 Ohio State, vIL-W, @MSU-L, 21-10/11-9
• 18-11/9-9 Michigan, vUNL-W, @UMD-L, 19-12/10-10
• 18-11/8-10 Indiana, vMN-W, vUW-W, 20-11/10-10
• 18-11/9-9 Rutgers, vUMD-L, @PU-L, 19-13/9-11
• 15-14/8-10 Purdue, @IA-L, vRU-W, 16-15/9-11
• 13-15/8-10 Minnesota, @IU-L, vUNL-W, 14-16/8-12
• 7-21/2-16 Northwestern, @UW-L, vsSPU-L, 7-23/2-18
• 7-22/2-16 Nebraska, @M-L, @MN-L, 7-24/2-18

[medinabuckeye1]

piTINo spelled backwards is oNITip.

Just to clarify, I'm not saying that I think they WILL make the NCAA, just that I think they are not yet in the "Need to win BTT" category yet because I still think it is possible for them to make the NCAA without winning the BTT.  

[TyphonInc]

From last Spring, prior to Juwan Howard coming to Michigan to make $2,000,000 per year.

• Chris Holtmann, Ohio State – $7,149,849* (3rd nationally)
• Tom Izzo, Michigan State – $4,359,979 (4th)
• John Beilein, Michigan – $3,370,000 (9th)
• Archie Miller, Indiana – $3,200,000 (10th)
• Brad Underwood, Illinois – $2,755,450 (18th)
• Mark Turgeon, Maryland – $2,700,915 (20th)
• Matt Painter, Purdue – $2,478,795 (29th)
• Tim Miles, Nebraska – $2,250,080 (33rd)
• Greg Gard, Wisconsin – $2,250,000 (34th)
• Fran McCaffery, Iowa – $2,225,000 (37th)
• Richard Pitino, Minnesota – $1,957,753 (49th)
• Steve Pikiell, Rutgers  -$1,600,000 (56th)
• Chris Collins, Northwestern – $1,434,725 (60th)

* Received $3,920,000 for buyout from Butler.

Removing the Butler Buyout drops Holtman to $3,229,849, putting him below Izzo, and just above Miller. That doesn't seem too far off to me. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Bubble watch:

7 Locks:  Again, I define a lock as a team that could lose all of their remaining games, get the worst possible match-ups in the BTT and lose those, face a relatively strong bubble, and they would still get in:

• 23-6 Maryland, their worst-case-scenario is 23-9, they are in. 
• 21-8 Penn State, their worst-case-scenario is 21-11, they are in. 
• 20-9 Michigan State, their worst-case-scenario is 20-12, they are in. 
• 20-9 Illinois, their worst-case-scenario is 20-12, they are in. 
• 20-9 Iowa, their worst-case-scenario is 20-12, they are in. 
• 20-9 Ohio State, their worst-case-scenario is 20-12, they are in. 
• 19-10 Wisconsin, their worst-case-scenario is 19-13, they are in. 

1 Should be in:  I define this as a team that would definitely be in as of today but can't just mail in the rest of the season:

• 18-11 Michigan, there is a strong case to be made that they are a lock.  Their worst-case-scenario is 18-14 and on a five-game losing streak including a bad loss at home to Nebraska and (probably) another bad loss on Wednesday in the BTT.  They still might get in, but that is too close for me to call them a lock, a strong bubble could knock them out in that case. 

2 Work to do:  I define this as a team that is probably in as of today but definitely still has work to do to stay in:

• 18-11 Rutgers, their record is the same as Michigan's but their OOC was not as strong so their situation is not quite as good.  Lunardi currently has them getting one of the last four byes and an 11 seed. 
• 18-11 Indiana, same as Rutgers, they don't have Michigan's OOC to fall back on.  Lunardi currently has them as one of the last four byes and a 10 seed. 

2 Significant work to do:  I define this as a team that is probably not in as of today and needs a run to get there:

• 15-14 Purdue, they probably need to get to 18 wins which means that they either:  1) Need to win their last two regular season games and one game in Indy, or 2) Need to win one of their last two regular season games and two BTT games, or 3) Need to win at least three BTT games. 
• 13-15 Minnesota, their best-case-scenario for an at-large bid would be to win their last two regular season games and get to the B1GCG in Indy.  The Gophers are perilously close to getting demoted to "need to win BTT". 

2 Need to win BTT:  I define this as a team that cannot possibly make the NCAA without winning the BTT:

• 7-21 Northwestern, their best-case-scenario without winning the BTT would be to finish 13-22.  That clearly is NOT enough so they would have to win the BTT. 
• 7-22 Nebraska, their best-case-scenario without winning the BTT would be to finish 13-23.  That clearly is NOT enough so they would have to win the BTT. 

[medinabuckeye1]

A closer look at the B1G's five Bubble teams:

Michigan 18-11/9-9:
The worldwide leader has the Wolverines as a lock and, as I noted above, there is a strong case to be made for that.  If they win either of their two remaining regular season games (vUNL, @UMD), I will concur with ESPN and promote them to a lock.  My concern is what if they don't?  If they lose their two remaining regular season games they will finish 18-13/9-11 and possibly drop into the B1G's #11 or #12 seed where they would face either UNL or NU next Wednesday in Indy.  If they also lost that, they would finish 18-14 overall and 9-12 in league games along with being on a five-game losing streak including two very bad losses.  They still might get in, but that would be close.  

Rutgers 18-11/9-9:
The good news / bad news for the Scarlet Knights is that their last two games are tough, really tough (vUMD, @PU).  The good news is that a win in either would be a quality win that would likely lock up a bid for them.  The bad news is that losing both is a very real possibility.  If they DO lose both they are in trouble.  That would mean an 18-13/9-11 finish and, like Michigan, that raises the very real possibility of dropping to the #11 or #12 seed where they would face either UNL or NU next Wednesday in Indy.  I absolutely do NOT think that Rutgers can afford to lose those three games.  

Indiana 18-11/8-10:
The good news for the Hoosiers is that their last two regular season games are at home.  The bad news is that they face an absolutely desperate Minnesota team tomorrow night.  In the Gophers' last two games they gave Maryland (in Minneapolis) and Wisconsin (in Madison) everything they could handle but came up just short.  Will the Gophers continue playing at that level or will they run out of gas?  After the Minnesota game the Hoosiers host a Wisconsin team that has been on fire of late.  The Badgers have now won six straight and seven of eight.  

Purdue 15-14/8-10:  
The Boilermakers take on Iowa in Iowa City tonight then head home to face Rutgers this weekend.  Losing both would be significantly problematic.  1-1 would leave them with work to do heading into Indy.  Winning both would probably be enough if the season just ended there at 17-14 but it doesn't, they would still have to go to Indy probably needing at least one win.  

Minnesota 13-15/7-11:
Sometimes having your good and bad games at the wrong times can really hurt you and, IMHO, that is the case for the Gophers.  In their last two games they looked like a contender taking first Maryland and then Wisconsin to the wire.  About a week earlier they looked fairly listless in home losses to Iowa and Indiana.  If Minnesota had had their good games against IU and IA instead of UMD and UW they probably would have won the IA and IU home games and been blown out in the UMD and UW games.  They would be 15-13/9-9 and in MUCH better shape.  They didn't so now they are in serious trouble.  Their last two games are at Indiana tomorrow night and vs Nebraska this weekend.  They probably need to win both to have any realistic chance short of winning the BTT.  

[847badgerfan]

Removing the Butler Buyout drops Holtman to $3,229,849, putting him below Izzo, and just above Miller. That doesn't seem too far off to me.

I'm thinking coach Gard is gonna get a raise.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue 15-14/8-10: 
The Boilermakers take on Iowa in Iowa City tonight then head home to face Rutgers this weekend.  Losing both would be significantly problematic.  1-1 would leave them with work to do heading into Indy.  Winning both would probably be enough if the season just ended there at 17-14 but it doesn't, they would still have to go to Indy probably needing at least one win. 

I think it's three more wins that aren't over Nebraska or Northwestern. That win helps their win total, but doesn't help their resume overall.

So 18-15 will get it done if they win the next two and then win one in Indy. 18-16 will get it done if they lose one of the next two, but somehow by a crazy tiebreaker don't play Wednesday, because they'd get two quad 1 wins (including likely beating the BTT #2 seed) and wouldn't lose until Saturday. 

If they lose one of the next two and fall to playing on Wednesday, I think they need three wins in Indy to get to 19-16.

[ELA]

No 16 loss team has ever made it correct?

[medinabuckeye1]

This week's games and what they mean:

Maryland at Rutgers tonight at 7 on BTN:
The Terps lock up at least a share of the Regular Season Title and a double-bye with a win.  Rutgers (see bubble discussion above) could REALLY use a quality win.  

Michigan State at Penn State tonight at 7 on ESPN:
If Maryland loses then the Spartans would take over a share of first place with a win and Penn State would move within one game of first place with a win.  If Maryland wins that eliminates Penn State and Michigan State would need a win here just to stay mathematically in the race for a share of the title.  Either way an MSU win would likely clinch a double-bye for them while a Penn State loss would make it extremely unlikely that they could get a double-bye.  

Purdue at Iowa tonight at 9 on BTN:
The Boilermakers (see bubble discussion above) could REALLY use a win.  If Maryland loses then Iowa will still be mathematically in the race for the B1G regular season title.  Even if not, a loss here would make it extremely unlikely that Iowa could achieve a double-bye.  

Minnesota at Indiana Wednesday at 7 on BTN:
Both teams are on the bubble (see bubble discussion above) so this might be the most desperate game of the week.  

Northwestern at Wisconsin Wednesday at 9 on BTN:
If Maryland loses tonight then Wisconsin would be playing to move into a tie for first place with the Terps and possibly others.  If Maryland wins tonight then Wisconsin would need a win just to stay mathematically in the race.  

Nebraska at Michigan Thursday at 630 on FS1:
Michigan can lock up a bid with a win and, depending on how some other games go they might be able to clinch not having to play next Wednesday in Indy.  

Illinois at Ohio State Thursday at 7 on ESPN:
If Maryland loses then the Illini would take over a share of first place with a win.  If Maryland wins then the Illini would need a win here just to stay mathematically in the race.  

[ELA]

Updated Massey composite rankings (58 rankings)

• Kansas (1)
• Baylor (2)
• Gonzaga (3)
• Dayton (5)
• San Diego State (6)
• Duke (4)
• Florida State (10)
• Louisville (7)
• MICHIGAN STATE (15)
• MARYLAND (8)
• Seton Hall (14)
• Villanova (11)
• Creighton (9)
• OHIO STATE (21)
• Kentucky (17)
• BYU (20)
• Oregon (18)
• Houston (25)
• PENN STATE (19)
• Arizona (13)
• West Virginia (12)
• IOWA (-)
• Auburn (23)
• MICHIGAN (16)
• WISCONSIN (-)

• 29. Illinois (31)
• 39. Indiana (32)
• 40. Rutgers (36)
• 41. Purdue (44)
• 51. Minnesota (46)
• 159. Northwestern (170)
• 181. Nebraska (171)

[medinabuckeye1]

No 16 loss team has ever made it correct?

This is correct.  However, I think that this year's loaded B1G is a pretty good place to start if you are trying to break that record.  I do believe that either Purdue or Minnesota would absolutely get in with 16 losses if their 16th loss was next Sunday in Indianapolis.  

That said, there is obviously a VERY big difference between 16-16 (ie, Purdue if they go 1-1 in their last two then lose their BTT opener) and 20-16 (ie, Purdue if they go 1-1 in their last two then win Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday in the BTT).  

[ELA]

My crack at a bracket using my own metric (which is just a combination of others', 2/3 backwards looking metrics, 1/3 predictive).  However, I'm assuming that each conference tourney is won by the team in the conference that is ranked the highest in KenPom (*)

MIDWEST (Indianapolis)

• #1 Kansas* vs. #16 Siena*/Prairie View A&M*
• #8 Virginia vs. #9 Wichita State
• #5 BYU vs. #12 Yale*
• #4 MICHIGAN STATE* vs. #13 Akron*
• #3 Creighton vs. #14 Belmont*
• #6 ILLINOIS vs. #11 Arizona State
• #7 West Virginia vs. #10 East Tennessee State*
• #2 Duke* vs. #15 Wright State*

SOUTH (Houston)

• #1 Baylor vs. #16 St. Francis(PA)*/Norfolk State*
• #8 Arizona* vs. #9 Xavier
• #5 Auburn vs. #12 Stephen F. Austin*
• #4 PENN STATE vs. #13 Liberty*
• #3 Villanova vs. #14 North Texas*
• #6 MICHIGAN vs. #11 Texas Tech
• #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 RUTGERS
• #2 Florida State vs. #15 Texas State*

WEST (Los Angeles)

• #1 San Diego State* vs. #16 UC Irvine*
• #8 Colorado vs. #9 Saint Mary's
• #5 Oregon vs. #12 Rhode Island/Mississippi State
• #4 OHIO STATE vs. #13 NM State*
• #3 Seton Hall* vs. #14 Northern Colorado*
• #6 Houston* vs. #11 USC
• #7 Butler vs. #10 Northern Iowa*
• #2 MARYLAND vs. #15 South Dakota State*

EAST (New York)

• #1 Gonzaga* vs. #16 Winthrop*
• #8 Marquette vs. #9 LSU
• #5 IOWA vs. #12 Utah State/Richmond
• #4 Kentucky* vs. #13 Vermont*
• #3 Louisville vs. #14 Colgate*
• #6 WISCONSIN vs. #11 Texas
• #7 INDIANA vs. #10 Florida
• #2 Dayton* vs. #15 Hofstra*

NIT BRACKET
WEST LAFAYETTE

• #1 PURDUE vs. #8 North Carolina A&T
• #4 Georgetown vs. #5 Tulsa
• #3 Notre Dame vs. #6 Connecticut
• #2 Arkansas vs. #7 SMU

PROVIDENCE

• #1 Providence vs. #8 Robert Morris*
• #4 Clemson vs. #5 South Carolina
• #3 Oklahoma State vs. #6 Georgia Tech
• #2 Furman vs. #7 Little Rock*

PALO ALTO

• #1 Stanford vs. #8 Radford*
• #4 Alabama vs. #5 Syracuse
• #3 Memphis vs. #6 VCU
• #2 NC State vs. #7 Bowling Green*

MINNEAPOLIS

• #1 MINNESOTA vs. #8 Montana*
• #4 UCLA* vs. #5 Tennessee
• #3 Saint Louis vs. #6 UNC Greensboro
• #2 Cincinnati vs. #7 North Dakota State*

[847badgerfan]

Updated Massey composite rankings (58 rankings)

• Kansas (1)
• Baylor (2)
• Gonzaga (3)
• Dayton (5)
• San Diego State (6)
• Duke (4)
• Florida State (10)
• Louisville (7)
• MICHIGAN STATE (15)
• MARYLAND (8)
• Seton Hall (14)
• Villanova (11)
• Creighton (9)
• OHIO STATE (21)
• Kentucky (17)
• BYU (20)
• Oregon (18)
• Houston (25)
• PENN STATE (19)
• Arizona (13)
• West Virginia (12)
• IOWA (-)
• Auburn (23)
• MICHIGAN (16)
• WISCONSIN (-)
  

Interesting thing on UW against those ranked here:


MSU: 1-1 (H win)
Maryland: 1-0 (H)
Ohio State: 2-0 SWEEP
Penn State: 1-0 (A)
Iowa: 0-1 (A)
Michigan: 1-0 (A)


And the toughest matchup for UW is the Goophs. But, since they drilled the Badgers in MPLS, they are 1-6. UW is 6-0.

[medinabuckeye1]

Looking at Ohio State's nine losses per @ELA 's composite rankings:

• #10 Maryland, Away
• #19 Penn State, Away
• #21 West Virginia, Neutral
• #22 Iowa, Away
• #25 Wisconsin, Away
• #25 Wisconsin, Home
• #39 Indiana, Away
• #51 Minnesota, Away
• #51 Minnesota, Home

Upthread @847badgerfan stated that Minnesota is UW's worst match-up, it is certainly Ohio State's.  Those two losses are, by far, Ohio State's worst.