2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[bayareabadger]

UW is playing with 6 scholarship players (+1 other who has a scholarship, but is not a B1G player).Tough to win B1G road games with that mix, especially against a fairly good team.

Your math is off. It's seven scholarship guys, plus Anderson. 

At this point, I'll say Anderson is a Big Ten player. A back of the rotation guy, but a Big Ten guy. He's at 13.7 MPG player in conference play for a team that is certianly holding it's own. That might mean the definition of "B1G player" is a bit wider, but he's one.

[medinabuckeye1]

I think Ohio State and Michigan are locks now.  Wisconsin and Rutgers are like one more win away.  Indiana is basically the only bubble team at this point, but barring collapse they should be in also.

EDIT: Rutgers has a tough finishing stretch.  They could be in a little danger here.

I disagree because, as discussed above, I am pretty hardcore about being literal with the term lock.  Thus, I will not call a team a lock until I think that they could lose out, get the worst possible BTT match-up, lose that, and still make it.  Vis-a-vis Ohio State and Michigan:

Ohio State is currently 18-9/8-8:

• Lose to Nebraska (a bad loss) to fall to 18-10/8-9
• Lose to Michigan at home to fall to 18-11/8-10
• Lose to Illinois at home to fall to 18-12/8-11
• Lose at Michigan State to fall to 18-13/8-12
• That would probably get them a BTT date with either NU or UNL which would be a bad loss, lose that to finish 18-14

They might sneak in anyway because they do have some very nice wins but the two bad losses and five-game losing streak would be problematic as would finishing 8-13 in B1G games.  

Michigan is currently 18-9/9-7:

• Lose to Wisconsin at home to fall to 18-10/9-8
• Lose at Ohio State to fall to 18-11/9-9
• Lose at home to Nebraska (a bad loss) to fall to 18-12/9-10
• Lose at Maryland to fall to 18-13/9-11
• That would possibly get them a BTT date with Northwestern which would be a bad loss, lose that to finish 18-14

Like Ohio State, they might sneak in anyway because they do have some very nice wins but the two bad losses, five-game losing streak, and finishing 9-12 in B1G games would be problematic.  

I've been saying for a LONG time that Rutgers' record was largely a product of their schedule.  Now that they are hitting the difficult part of their schedule that is becoming obvious to everyone and unlike tOSU and M they don't have the quantity of quality OOC wins to help make up for it.  They are in potential trouble.  

Wisconsin I agree is getting very close to locking up a bid.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Over the weekend Michigan's win in West Lafayette and Ohio State's home win over Maryland were both upsets per the tiers so here are the updated projected final standings/BTT seeds and matchups:

• 16-4/26-5 Maryland
• 13-7/21-10 Illinois
• 13-7/23-8 Penn State
• 12-8/20-11 Michigan State
• 12-8/21-10 Iowa
• 12-8/19-12 Wisconsin
• 11-9/21-10 Ohio State
• 11-9/20-11 Michigan
• 10-10/20-11 Indiana
• 9-11/18-13 Rutgers
• 9-11/16-15 Purdue
• 8-12/14-16 Minnesota
• 3-17/8-23 Nebraska
• 1-19/6-24 Northwestern

The tiebreakers are:
For the tie for 2nd/3rd between IL and PSU at 13-7:

• The tiebreaker is H2H, they only played once, in State College, and Illinois won.  

For the three-way tie for 4th/5th/6th at 12-8, the first tiebreaker is H2H2H:

• 2-1 MSU:  No game in Iowa City
• 1-1 Iowa:  No game in Madison, does not host MSU
• 1-2 Wisconsin:  Does not host Iowa

For the tie for 7th/8th between tOSU and M at 11-9:

• The tiebreaker is H2H, they have played once in Ann Arbor and Ohio State won.  Ohio State is projected to sweep the series with a win at home next week.  

For the tie for 10th/11th at 9-11 the first tiebreaker is H2H:

• They play twice, RU won in Picastaway and PU is projected to win in West Lafayette.  

The second tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the league, then the next, etc.  

• Both are projected to go 0-season against Maryland
• PU is projected to go 0-season against IL and PSU while RU is projected to go 2-2.  

Thus, the BTT match-ups in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 11, 2020:

• #11 Purdue vs #14 Northwestern, 930 on BTN
• #12 Minnesota vs #13 Nebraska, 6 on BTN

Thursday, March 12, 2020:

• #5 Iowa vs MN/UNL, 230 on BTN
• #6 Wisconsin vs PU/NU, 9 on BTN
• #7 Ohio State vs #10 Rutgers, 630 on BTN
• #8 Michigan vs #9 Indiana, noon on BTN

Friday, March 13, 2020:

• #1 Maryland vs M/IU, noon on BTN
• #2 Illinois vs tOSU/RU, 630 on BTN
• #3 Penn State vs UW/PU/NU, 9 on BTN
• #4 Michigan State vs IA/MN/UNL, 230 on BTN

Saturday, March 14, 2020:

• UMD/M/IU vs MSU/IA/MN/UNL, 1 on CBS
• IL/tOSU/RU vs PSU/UW/PU/NU, 330 on CBS

Sunday, March 15, 2020:

• UMD/M/IU/MSN/IA/MN/UNL vs IL/tOSU/RU/PSU/UW/PU/NU, 330 on CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

Updated NCAA Tournament status as I see it:

4 Locks (no change):

• 22-5/12-4 Maryland
• 20-7/10-6 Penn State
• 19-8/10-6 Iowa
• 18-9/10-6 Michigan State

4 Should be in (UW, M, and tOSU added).  Would definitely be in if the tournament started today but can't just mail in the rest of the season:

• 17-9/9-6 Illinois:  A win tonight at home over UNL gets them really close to being a lock.  
• 17-10/10-6 Wisconsin:  A win at Michigan this week would likely lock it up for them.  
• 18-9/9-/ Michigan:  The win at West Lafayette really helps.  A win at home this week over Wisconsin or in Columbus this weekend would likely lock it up for them.  
• 18-9/8-8 Ohio State:  The win over Maryland really helps.  A win at Nebraska this week or at home over Michigan this weekend would likely lock it up for them.  

2 Work to do (down three for the promotions of UW, M, and tOSU):

• 18-10/9-8 Rutgers:  At this point they have lost two straight, three of four, and five of seven.  If that continues they will miss the tournament.  The concern is that their last three are all tough games, @PSU, vUMD, @PU.  
• 18-9/8-8 Indiana:  The win over Penn State really helps.  Their next two are tough road games @PU and @IL.  Winning either one would move them up.  

2 Significant work to do (no change):

• 14-14/7-10 Purdue:  The home loss to Michigan this weekend hurts and now they can do no better than .500 in regular season league games.  They have now lost four straight (vPSU, @tOSU, @UW, vM) and while none of those are bad losses, they are down to .500 overall and rapidly running out of time to start winning.  They host IU in what is probably a must-win game this week.  
• 13-13/7-9 Minnesota:  The Gophers won this weekend and got back to .500 overall but it was only Northwestern.  They haven't had a quality win since Wisconsin on February 5.  Like Purdue, they are rapidly running out of time.  This week they host Maryland and next weekend they travel to Wisconsin.  I don't think that they need to necessarily win both but I also don't know that they can afford to lose both.  

2 need to win BTT (no change):

• 7-19/2-13 Nebraska
• 6-20/1-15 Northwestern

[medinabuckeye1]

A short rant:

#1 Baylor, #2 Gonzaga, #4 SDSU, and #7 Maryland all lost this weekend.  They each dropped one spot except for Maryland who dropped two spots.  That is frankly ridiculous.  The Terps got hosed:

• Baylor lost at home to #3 Kansas.  Kansas is now #1 in the NET rankings.  
• Gonzaga lost on the road to #23 BYU.  BYU is now #14 in the NET rankings.  
• SDSU lost at home to unranked UNLV.  UNLV is now #112 in the NET rankings.  
• Maryland lost on the road to #25 Ohio State.  Ohio State is now #19 in the NET rankings.  

One of these things is not like the others.  Baylor, Maryland, and even Gonzaga lost tough games.  SDSU doesn't even know what a tough game is and they lost anyway.  SDSU should have been banished from the top-10 and shouldn't even be considered for a #1 seed.  

Here is a comparison of the B1G, the MWC, and Gonzaga's WCC by rankings of their teams in the NET:

• #10 UMD, #5 SDSU, #3 Gonzaga
• #13 MSU, #38 UtahSt, #14 BYU
• #19 tOSU, #80 Nevada, #32 St. Marys
• #22 M, #105 ColoradoSt, #97 San Francisco
• #25 PSU, #112 UNLV, , #109 Pacific
• #27 IA, #148 NM, #132 Pepperdine
• #29 UW, #163 Fresno, #137 Santa Clara
• #34 RU, #226 Air Force, #204 LMU
• #35 IL, #280 SJSU, #211 SDSU
• #36 PU, #285 Wyoming, #278 Portland
• #42 MN, 
• #52 IU, 
• #177 NU, 
• #186, UNL, 

The top teams are roughly equivalent and #2 is equivalent for the WCC.  After that the comparison gets ridiculous.  The third best team in the B1G is a quality tournament team.  The third best team in the MWC is #80 Nevada and in the WCC it is St. Marys.  

The farther you go the worse it gets for the MWC and WCC.  At #5 the B1G is still in the top-25 while the MWC and WCC are #112 and #109.  


SDSU's closest contender in the MWC is #38 UtahSt.  They would be 11th in the B1G.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Per Lunardi via the Worldwide Leader, the B1G has only one bubble team, IU.  The Hoosiers are listed as one of the last four byes while no other B1G teams are listed among the last four byes, the last four in, the first four out, or the next four out.  

Ten B1G teams are projected to have bids, as follows:

• n/a
• UMD
• n/a
• PSU
• MSU, M
• tOSU, IA
• n/a
• IL, UW
• RU
• IU

Based on past NCAA performance by seed, those seeds should produce:

• A little more than six should win their opener.  
• A little less than three should get to the Sweet 16.  
• A little more than one should make the Elite 8.  
• There is about a 50/50 chance of one of them making the Final Four.  
• There is about a one in five chance of one of them making the NCG.  
• There is about a one in 13 chance of one of them winning the NC.  

More detail:
First round:

• #2 seeds have a 94.29% chance to win.  
• #4 seeds have a 79.29% chance to win.  
• #5 seeds have a 64.29% chance to win (we have two of them so 128.57% cumulatively).  
• #6 seeds have a 62.86% chance to win (we have two of them so 125.71% cumulatively).  
• #8 seeds have a 48.57% chance to win (we have two of them so 97.14% cumulatively).  
• #9 seeds have a 51.43% chance to win.  
• #10 seeds have a 39.29% chance to win.  
• That adds up to 615.71% so a little better than six.  

Making the Sweet 16:

• #2 seeds have a 63.57% chance to make the S16.  
• #4 seeds have a 47.14% chance to make the S16.  
• #5 seeds have a 33.57% chance to make the S16 (we have two so 67.14% cumulatively).  
• #6 seeds have a 30% chance to make the S16 (we have two so 60% cumulatively).  
• #8 seeds have a 9.29% chance to make the S16 (we have two so 18.57% cumulatively).  
• #9 seeds have a 5% chance to make the S16.  
• #10 seeds have a 16.43% chance to make the S16.  
• That adds up to 277.86% so almost three.  

Making the Elite 8:

• #2 seeds have a 45.71% chance to make the E8.  
• #4 seeds have a 15% chance to make the E8.  
• #5 seeds have a 6.43% chance to make the E8 (we have two so 12.86% cumulatively).  
• #6 seeds have a 10% chance to make the E8 (we have two so 20% cumulatively).  
• #8 seeds have a 5.71% chance to make the E8 (we have two so 11.43% cumulatively).  
• #9 seeds have a 2.86% chance to make the E8.  
• #10 seeds have a 5.71% chance to make the E8.  
• That adds up to 113.57% so just over one.  

Making the Final Four:

• #2 seeds make the FF 20% of the time.  
• #4 seeds make the FF 9.29% of the time.  
• #5 seeds make the FF 5% of the time (we have two so 10% cumulatively).  
• #6 seeds make the FF 2.14% of the time (we have two so 4.29% cumulatively).  
• #8 seeds make the FF 3.57% of the time (we have two so 7.14% cumulatively).  
• #9 seeds make the FF 0.71% of the time.  
• #10 seeds make the FF 0.71% of the time.  
• That adds up to 52.14% so just over one half.  

Making the NCG:

• #2 seeds make the NCG 8.57% of the time.  
• #4 seeds make the NCG 2.14% of the time.  
• #5 seeds make the NCG 2.14% of the time (we have two so 4.29% cumulatively).  
• #6 seeds make the NCG 1.43% of the time (we have two so 2.86% cumulatively).  
• #8 seeds make the NCG 2.14% of the time (we have two so 4.29% cumulatively).  
• #9 seeds make the NCG . . . it hasn't happened yet.  
• #10 seeds make the NCG . . . it hasn't happened yet.  
• That adds up to 22.14% so roughly a one-in-five chance of getting a team to the NCG.  

Winning the NC:

• #2 seeds win the NC 3.57% of the time.  
• #4 seeds win the NC 0.71% of the time.  
• #5 seeds win the NC . . . it hasn't happened yet.  
• #6 seeds win the NC 0.71% of the time (we have two so 1.43% cumulatively).  
• #8 seeds win the NC 0.71% of the time (we have two so 1.43% cumulatively).  
• That adds up to 7.14% so roughly a one-in-13 chance to win the NC.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

2 Significant work to do (no change):

• 14-14/7-10 Purdue:  The home loss to Michigan this weekend hurts and now they can do no better than .500 in regular season league games.  They have now lost four straight (vPSU, @tOSU, @UW, vM) and while none of those are bad losses, they are down to .500 overall and rapidly running out of time to start winning.  They host IU in what is probably a must-win game this week. 

I've been thinking more about it... Purdue has two scenarios IMHO:

• Win out regular-season, and win 1 game in the BTT. This gets them a Tier 1 win (@Iowa) and two Tier 2 wins (vIU and vRU). With that, they should secure the 10-seed or better in the BTT. Assuming everything else holds true, that would put them into a 9/10 tie with IU at 10-10, and with no other teams at 10-10 would put Purdue into the 9 seed due to H2H. Per the current tiers, that would have them facing Michigan, and if they snagged another Tier 1 win vs Michigan at a neutral site, they'll be 18-14. They'd then have a Friday matchup against Maryland, which nobody would fault them for losing. I think they'd be in.
• If they go 2-1 in the remaining three, it means they have a big problem. They'll be 16-15. Beating IU/RU and losing @Iowa means they're tied for 9-11 with RU and lose that tie. A loss to either IU or Rutgers at home with a win @Iowa means each of those teams would now have a positive upset, so per @medinabuckeye1 's projections, they'd still be 9-11 and losing a tie with Rutgers for the 10th seed (if the loss is to IU), or solely in 11th place (if the loss is to RU). So unless there is chaos elsewhere, Purdue will be playing on Wednesday. The issue then is that a win on Wednesday is useless to build their resume. It'll get them to 17-15 though. Then, they'd be facing Iowa/Wisconsin. Either one would be a significant win to get to 18-15, but I don't think either is enough of a "statement" win to get them over the number of losses. Finally, they'd be facing either PSU or MSU on Friday. I do think 19-15 and then losing to the 1 or 2 seed and finishing 19-16 might be enough. 

And of course, if they finish 1-2 or 0-3 to be 15-16 or 14-17, that's Need to Win BTT mode... 


I don't see them going 3-0. So I'm thinking the number is up to 19 for them.

[bayareabadger]

A short rant:

#1 Baylor, #2 Gonzaga, #4 SDSU, and #7 Maryland all lost this weekend.  They each dropped one spot except for Maryland who dropped two spots.  That is frankly ridiculous.  The Terps got hosed:

• Baylor lost at home to #3 Kansas.  Kansas is now #1 in the NET rankings. 
• Gonzaga lost on the road to #23 BYU.  BYU is now #14 in the NET rankings. 
• SDSU lost at home to unranked UNLV.  UNLV is now #112 in the NET rankings. 
• Maryland lost on the road to #25 Ohio State.  Ohio State is now #19 in the NET rankings. 

One of these things is not like the others.  Baylor, Maryland, and even Gonzaga lost tough games.  SDSU doesn't even know what a tough game is and they lost anyway.  SDSU should have been banished from the top-10 and shouldn't even be considered for a #1 seed. 

Here is a comparison of the B1G, the MWC, and Gonzaga's WCC by rankings of their teams in the NET:

• #10 UMD, #5 SDSU, #3 Gonzaga
• #13 MSU, #38 UtahSt, #14 BYU
• #19 tOSU, #80 Nevada, #32 St. Marys
• #22 M, #105 ColoradoSt, #97 San Francisco
• #25 PSU, #112 UNLV, , #109 Pacific
• #27 IA, #148 NM, #132 Pepperdine
• #29 UW, #163 Fresno, #137 Santa Clara
• #34 RU, #226 Air Force, #204 LMU
• #35 IL, #280 SJSU, #211 SDSU
• #36 PU, #285 Wyoming, #278 Portland
• #42 MN,
• #52 IU,
• #177 NU,
• #186, UNL,

The top teams are roughly equivalent and #2 is equivalent for the WCC.  After that the comparison gets ridiculous.  The third best team in the B1G is a quality tournament team.  The third best team in the MWC is #80 Nevada and in the WCC it is St. Marys. 

The farther you go the worse it gets for the MWC and WCC.  At #5 the B1G is still in the top-25 while the MWC and WCC are #112 and #109. 


SDSU's closest contender in the MWC is #38 UtahSt.  They would be 11th in the B1G. 

What did they drop in?

[MaximumSam]

I wish playing in a crappy conference made you a crappy team. Then we would have beaten Clemson

[medinabuckeye1]

I wish playing in a crappy conference made you a crappy team. Then we would have beaten Clemson

I get that playing in a crappy conference does not automatically make you a crappy team but note that Clemson went undefeated in their crappy conference.  

SDSU's recent loss to UNLV, at home no less, would be the equivalent of Maryland losing to one of the worst teams on their schedule.  

[bayareabadger]

I get that playing in a crappy conference does not automatically make you a crappy team but note that Clemson went undefeated in their crappy conference. 

SDSU's recent loss to UNLV, at home no less, would be the equivalent of Maryland losing to one of the worst teams on their schedule. 

Maryland has played 10 teams worst than UNLV per KenPom. Two of them are within like 10 spots, but 8 are 25 spots or worse. 

That said, losing to the 8th worst team on Maryland's schedule at home ain't great. 

[MaximumSam]

I get that playing in a crappy conference does not automatically make you a crappy team but note that Clemson went undefeated in their crappy conference. 

SDSU's recent loss to UNLV, at home no less, would be the equivalent of Maryland losing to one of the worst teams on their schedule. 

Yeah but shit happens.  Clemson nearly lost to North Carolina.  Duke lost to Stephen F. Austin.  SDSU has 1 loss and is fifth on KenPom so it's not like they are some pretender.

[847badgerfan]

I'd really like to see UW get off that 8/9 line and get to the 7.

[mcwterps1]

Maryland has played 10 teams worst than UNLV per KenPom. Two of them are within like 10 spots, but 8 are 25 spots or worse.

That said, losing to the 8th worst team on Maryland's schedule at home ain't great.

I'm starting to think you've got a problem with Maryland, or me.