If Purdue beats PSU tonight, and particularly if they continue to show some of the trends that have been coming in the last 4-5 games, I think they're still a tier 2 team.
Sagarin currently has Purdue 10th, but their "recent" rating is 2 points higher than their current rating. While they're not the only team like that (their "recent" is still 10th nationally for "recent"), if you used their "recent" rating compared to every other team's current rating they'd be up to 7th and just barely behind L'Ville.
But even more than the rating, if you've watched them on the court it appears the team has turned a major corner.
I think part of this might have been injury-related. Haarms had a concussion and then a hip pointer and hadn't looked quite like his usual energetic self, but looks to have recovered. Nojel came into the season with some nagging injuries and then appeared to have hand/wrist injuries in several of the first few games. I think it caused him to play tentatively.
But even beyond that, it seems that the young players are developing well and more importantly, players are finally starting to understand and settle into their roles.
The biggest change has been at the 4. Something lit a major fire under Evan Boudreaux, who was in a shooting slump and didn't seem to be in the game early in the season. He's been playing with energy, tearing it up rebounding, getting put-backs, driving to the hoop, and found his 3pt shot again. Likewise, Aaron Wheeler started the year VERY poorly. He was doing all the little things (defense, rebounding, hustle, etc) but couldn't buy a bucket. He's started to play with confidence, his shots are falling, and he's one of our better post-feeders with his height. The improvement at the 4 has been huge, and that opens up the offense considerably.
GT Jahaad Proctor started the season hot but slumped in B1G play. He's been a much more effective dribble penetration player and finding his teammates on kickouts lately. He also said this, which suggests there might have been an external reason for his slump, not just the transition to the B1G level of competition. Whatever it was, it appears to have passed and he's got his head right.
"We’re more than just basketball players. We have real life things going on, and that was having an impact on my play."
TrFr Isaiah Thompson is young and undersized, and the adjustment to the collegiate level took some time. But he seems like he's made the adjustment. He's a serviceable backup PG, he's found his shooting stroke, and while he's not going to be "the guy" this season, he's a guy you can't sleep on.
Nojel, I think, came into the year with the mentality of "I have to show a jump shot to prove I'm NBA-ready". So he started pulling up for 16-18 footers, which every defense in the league will give him all day long. I think he mentally got back into the mindset that he should be an opportunistic scorer, looking for ORB and put-backs, slashing to the rim, etc. And he's been developing a bit of a post-up game that when Purdue is either playing small or Haarms has dragged a big out of the paint, he can dominate smaller guards.
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I've seen people make the comparison between this team and the Michigan team from a few years ago under Beilein that started 14-9 and then just went on a tear. I think they played themselves from the bubble to about a 7 seed that year, and was the team in the Tourney that nobody wanted to face. We all knew this team had talent. We all know that Painter tends to make his teams better during the course of the year, and that this year was going to be hard to replace Carsen, Cline, and Eifert right after replacing 4 seniors the year prior, and integrating Micah Shrewsberry as an offensive assistant after Greg Gary left to be a HC. But it looks like this team is all coming together, and is going to be dangerous in every single game they play going forward.
