2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

There were no upsets last weekend so the projections remain as they were:
Thus, the projected final standings/BTT Seeds are:

• 15-5 Maryland
• 14-6 Michigan State
• 14-6 Illinois
• 12-8 Wisconsin
• 12-8 Penn State
• 11-9 Iowa
• 10-10 Rutgers
• 10-10 Purdue
• 10-10 Indiana
• 10-10 Minnesota
• 9-11 Ohio State
• 9-11 Michigan 
• 3-17 Nebraska
• 1-19 Northwestern

This week, oddly, there are no Thursday games.  Instead there are five games Tuesday and Wednesday:

• Rutgers at Maryland, Tuesday at 7pm on FS1:  We project a Maryland win and neither team has been involved in an upset yet so if Rutgers wins, no changes.  
• Ohio State-2 at Michigan-2, Tuesday at 7pm on ESPN2:  We project a Michigan win.  If the Buckeyes win they will still be at -1 so no changes for them, but Michigan will be at -3 and likely need to be moved down.  
• Penn State (even, -1,+1) at Michigan State-1 Tuesday at 8pm on BTN:  We project an MSU win.  If the Nittany Lions win I do not forsee any changes to the tiers.  
• Iowa-1 at Purdue-2, Wednesday at 7pm on BTN:  We project a Purdue win.  If the Hawkeyes win they will be even but Purdue will go to -3 and likely need to be moved down.  
• Wisconsin+1 (+2,-1) at Minnesota+1, Wednesday at 9pm on BTN:  We project a Minnesota win.  If the Badgers win they will move to +2 and might need to be moved up.  

[medinabuckeye1]

A look at Ohio State half-way through the B1G season:

The Buckeyes started the season absolutely on fire with great OOC wins over Cincy (currently tied for second in the AAC), Villanova (second in the BigEast) Kentucky (tied for second in the SEC), and UNC (it looked good at the time, they were #7 nationally, but they are currently 13th in the ACC).  

The hot start continued through the Buckeyes' first B1G game (a blowout of PSU in Columbus) but cracks suddenly appeared when the Buckeyes went to Minneapolis for their second B1G game.  At the time the Buckeyes were ranked #3 in the nation but they were effectively #1 due to other activity among the top teams and then . . . they lost to the unranked and, at the time, .500 Gophers.  

After the loss to Minnesota the Buckeyes rebounded to beat SEMO (who cares) and Kentucky then fell off a cliff.  They lost four straight and six out of seven with the lone win coming at home against lowly Nebraska.  From December 22 through January 25 Nebraska was Ohio State's only win while the suffered all of the following losses:

• vs WVU (in Cleveland)
• vs Wisconsin
• at Maryland
• at Indiana
• at Penn State (the same PSU that tOSU had blown out a little over a month earlier)
• vs Minnesota

Now the Buckeyes have won two straight for the first time since December 17 and 22 but even there, those were against lowly Northwestern and a home game against Indiana.  

The Buckeyes are 4-6 and we project them to go 5-5 down the stretch to finish 9-11 and tied with Michigan for 11th/12th in the league (the Buckeyes would win the tie).  Here are their remaining games in order of what I think is the likelihood of tOSU winning:

• vs Purdue, 2/15
• vs Michigan, 3/1
• at Nebraska, 2/27
• vs Rutgers, 2/12
• vs Illinois, 3/5
• at Michigan, 2/4
• vs Maryland, 2/23
• at Iowa, 2/20
• at Wisconsin, 2/9
• at Michigan State, 3/8

The first five are projected wins, the last five are projected losses.  Unexpected losses would be bad for tOSU's tournament hopes, but they wouldn't matter much in terms of league standings.  As noted above, the Buckeyes are projected to finish tied with Michigan for 11th/12th at 9-11.  They would win the tie so an extra loss would cost them the 11th seed in the BTT but they are projected to finish six games ahead of #13 Nebraska so basically 12th is the floor.  

Unexpected wins would change things quickly: 

• With just one extra win (finishing 6-4) the Buckeyes would move into the logjam of teams projected to finish 10-10 in the B1G.  
• With two extra wins (finishing 7-3) the Buckeyes would move into a projected tie with Iowa for 6th/7th at 11-9.  The Buckeyes would lose that tie and get the 7th seed.  
• With three extra wins (finishing 8-2) the Buckeyes would join Penn State and Wisconsin in a tie for 4th/5th/6th at 12-8.  
• That is pretty much the ceiling because even if the Buckeyes won out (10-0) that would only get them to 14-6 and into a three-way tie with MSU and IL for 2nd/3rd/4th.  Actually, if the Buckeyes won out that would only be a two-way tie because winning out would include an upset win in East Lansing that would knock the Spartans' projection down to 13-7.  

Realistic possibilities, IMHO:

• Best Case Scenario:  IMHO, the Best-Case-Scenario is to finish about two games over the projection and end up 11-9/21-10.  That would clearly be a lock for the Tournament and probably mean roughly the 6th seed in the BTT.  
• Good but not great:  Next would be to finish one game over the projection and end up 10-10/20-11.  With Ohio State's quality OOC wins and the strength of the B1G this year, that would probably be a lock for the tournament and probably somewhere around the 6th to 11th seed in the BTT.  
• As Projected:  If the Buckeyes finish 5-5 as projected, they will end up 9-11/19-12 and with roughly the 11th seed in the BTT.  With that record and the likely Wednesday BTT game against a bad Nebraska or Northwestern team the Buckeyes would probably need to win their BTT opener to make the big dance.  I think that two wins in the BTT and a final record of 21-13 would get them in.  
• Bad but not terrible:  Next would be to finish one game below the projection and end up 8-12/18-13 with roughly the 12th seed in the BTT.  That record would clearly mean that the Buckeyes would need some wins in Indianapolis to have any realistic chance to make the tournament.  
• Worst Case Scenario:  IMOH, the Worst-Case-Scenario is to finish two games below the projection and end up 7-13/17-14 with probably the 12th seed in the BTT.  That record would clearly mean that the Buckeyes would need a run in Indianapolis to make the tournament.  

[bayareabadger]

I think as projected gets OSU in. The bubble is always bad, but this year is highly atrocious. 

They do have some games that are on the border Q1, but if they go 5-5, at worst they add three Q2 wins and a Q1. With no bad losses, I have to imagine that’s in. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I think as projected gets OSU in. The bubble is always bad, but this year is highly atrocious.

They do have some games that are on the border Q1, but if they go 5-5, at worst they add three Q2 wins and a Q1. With no bad losses, I have to imagine that’s in.

The main thing that holds me back from agreeing with you is that if they go 5-5 down the stretch to finish 9-11/19-12 they probably end up playing a bad team on Wednesday in Indianapolis.  

I guess I agree with you to the extent that with their SoS, 19-12 would probably get them in if the season ended right then.  The problem is that it doesn't.  Right now I am projecting them to play a 6-24 Northwestern squad in their BTT opener.  Finishing 19-13 with a neutral site loss to Northwestern in their last game might leave them on the wrong side of the bubble.  

Any BTT loss other than Nebraska or Northwestern would be a "good" or at least "not bad" loss but getting forced to play on Wednesday and losing to one of those two would be problematic.  

As long as they win on Wednesday, their Thursday opponent would be the #5 or #6 seed.  Right now those are projected to be 22-9 Penn State or 20-11 Iowa.  Either way, a loss on Thursday would be a "not bad" loss to a tournament team.  I think the Buckeyes would be pretty easily in with a 20-13 record.  

[medinabuckeye1]

In the latest Bracketology (updated Friday) the B1G has 12 teams in, but the highest seed is #3 MSU.  We have a team in each of the four 8/9 games:

• Indiana is #8 in the Midwest, playing #9 Saint Mary's then (if they win), Kansas in Omaha.  
• Wisconsin is #8 in the East, playing #9 TxTech then (if they win), Gonzaga in Spokane.  
• Ohio State is #9 in the West, playing #8 USC then (if they win), SDSU in Sacramento.  
• Michigan is #9 in the South, playing #8 Arkansas then (if they win), Baylor in Omaha.  

Regulars here know that I just hate that 8/9 line but I would REALLY like the B1G's chances in those games.  I think our teams would go at least 3-1 in the 8/9 games and probably pull off at least one upset to get to the sweet sixteen.  


With 12 teams in we would be extremely likely to have B1G vs B1G games within the tournament.  The earliest possible for each team is:

#3 Michigan State:  Could play MN or IU in the E8.  
#4 Maryland:  Could play UW in the S16.  
#5 Penn State:  Could play M in the S16.  
#5 Iowa:  Could play tOSU in the S16.  
#6 Illinois:  Could play RU in the S16.  
#7 Rutgers:  Could play IL in the S16.  
#8 Indiana:  Could play MN in the S16.  
#8 Wisconsin:  Could play Maryland in the S16.  
#9 Michigan:  Could play PSU in the S16.  
#9 Ohio State:  Could play Iowa in the S16.  
#11 Purdue:  Could play PSU or M in the E8.  
#12 (play-in) Minnesota:  Could play IU in the S16.  

[ELA]

Who would have guessed in December that MSU-PSU would be the marquee game tonight, and UM-OSU would be to stave off bubble talk?

[847badgerfan]

Cool bracketology. I just adore the cuteness of sending UW to play out West.

[medinabuckeye1]

Who would have guessed in December that MSU-PSU would be the marquee game tonight, and UM-OSU would be to stave off bubble talk?

It has certainly been a massive fall for both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines.  

The Buckeyes got to 9-0 and 11-1 with some very impressive wins and were ranked as high as #2 at one point.  

The Wolverines got to 7-1 and 8-1 with their only loss being to #1 Louisville and were ranked as high as #4 at one point.  

The two teams were last ranked in week 11:  Michigan was #19 AP and #20 Coaches while Ohio State was #21 AP and #19 Coaches:

• Week 10:  tOSU was 11/12, M was 19/19
• Week 9:  tOSU was 5/5, M was 12/13
• Week 8:  tOSU was 2/2, M was 11/15
• Week 7:  tOSU was 5/4, M was 14/15
• Week 6:  tOSU was 3/2, M was 5/7
• Week 5:  M was 4/5, tOSU was 6/6

Now both teams are 4-6 in conference.  Ohio State is 14-7 overall while Michigan is 13-8.  Neither is ranked although in the AP Poll the Buckeyes have 19 votes (3rd among ORV) and Michigan has one (tied for 12th).  In the Coaches Poll the Buckeyes have 20 votes (tied for third among ORV).  Both still have some nice wins and some not-too-bad losses:

• Michigan beat #2 Gonzaga by 18 at a neutral site (Gonzaga's only loss)
• Michigan lost at #5 Louisville by 15.  
• Ohio State lost at #9 Maryland by 12
• Ohio State beat #10 Villanova by 25 in Columbus
• Ohio State lost by 8 at a neutral site to #13 WVU by 8
• Michigan lost in OT to #14 Oregon in Ann Arbor
• Ohio State beat #15 Kentucky at a neutral site by 6
• Michigan lost at #16 MSU by 18
• Michigan beat #17 Iowa by 12 in Ann Arbor
• Michigan lost at #20 Illinois by 9
• Michigan lost to #20 Illinois by 2 in Ann Arbor
• Michigan beat #21 Creighton by 10 in Ann Arbor
• Ohio State beat #22 PSU by 32 in Columbus
• Ohio State lost by 14 at #22 PSU
• Michigan lost by 9 to #22 PSU in Ann Arbor

Collectively that adds up to 6-9 against currently ranked teams (tOSU is 3-3 while M is 3-6).  

Both teams come into this game in somewhat similar circumstances.  Both are on two-game winning streaks.  For Ohio State this is their first since Dec 17&21 while for Michigan this is their first since Dec 21&29.  Both are looking for their first three-game winning streak since late November / early December.  

Both teams also have a very tough game next (@UW for tOSU, vsMSU for M) then two games that they are projected to win (vsRU, vsPU for tOSU, @NU, vsIU for M).  The winner is likely to move up to .500 in conference by mid-February while the loser may never see .500 in the league.  

I think this game is big for both teams.  For Ohio State this is probably the easiest of their remaining projected losses.  Thus, this is the best chance the Buckeyes have to pull off an upset win.  If the rest of the projection holds that would get Ohio State to 10-10/20-11 and an NCAA Lock heading into Indianapolis.  It would also almost eliminate the possibility of Michigan being seeded ahead of the Buckeyes which would likely make the #11 seed the floor.  

I think the game is even bigger for Michigan simply because they are the projected winner so a loss hurts more.  Also this is probably one of the toughest of their remaining projected wins.  If they lose this, their projected finish drops to 8-12/17-14 and the odds to make the NCAA start to look pretty long.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Cool bracketology. I just adore the cuteness of sending UW to play out West.

Somewhere upthread I posted my annual rant about there always being too many MST/PST sites.  Over the last 16 years the top-4 seeds have come from the following time zones:

• EST:  Average of 9.31 teams per year with a low of seven and a high of 11.  
• CST:  Average of 4.50 teams per year with a low of two and a high of  six.  
• MST:  Average of 0.56 teams per year with a low of zero and a high of one.  
• PST:  Average of 1.63 teams per year with a low of zero and a high of three.  
• MST + PSU combined:  Average of 2.19 teams per year with a low of zero and a high of four.  

Based on the averages, the sites should be allocated to the timezones as follows:

• EST:  Five sites two out of three years, four sites one out of three years.  
• CST:  Three sites one out of four years, two sites three out of four years.  
• MST:  One site one out of four years, zero sites three out of four years.  
• PST:  One site four out of five years, zero sites one out of five years.  

The PST and MST are perennially given twice the sites they should get.  This year Sacramento and Spokane are both tournament sites.  The sites are:

• EST:  4:  Tampa, Albany, Cleveland, Greensboro
• CST:  2:  Omaha, St. Louis
• MST:  1:  Spokane
• PST:  1:  Sacramento

Using history to determine how many sites each timezone *SHOULD* get, and comparing to the actual locations:

• EST has 0.66 less sites than they should.  
• CST has 0.25 less sites than they should.  
• MST has 0.72 more sites than they should.  
• PST has 0.19 more sites than they should.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Who would have guessed in December that MSU-PSU would be the marquee game tonight, and UM-OSU would be to stave off bubble talk?

FWIW:  M/tOSU still might be the best game to watch from a neutral fan's perspective.  Maryland and Michigan State are favored substantially at home over Rutgers and Penn State respectively.  Michigan is almost a pick-em at home against Ohio State.  Projections based on the point spreads & O/U:

• Michigan State 76, Penn State 68
• Maryland 69, Rutgers 62
• Michigan 69, Ohio State 67

[847badgerfan]

Minnesota/Wisconsin will be a great game to watch. 4 of UW's 7 scholarship players are from Minnesota, including 3 starters.

[ELA]

Updated weekly Massey composite rankings (52 rankings)

• Kansas (1)
• Baylor (2)
• Duke (3)
• Gonzaga (4)
• San Diego State (8)
• Dayton (6)
• Louisville (7)
• West Virginia (5)
• MARYLAND (11)
• MICHIGAN STATE (9)
• Florida State (12)
• Arizona (16)
• Villanova (14)
• Seton Hall (10)
• Auburn (18)
• Oregon (13)
• Colorado (15)
• IOWA (19)
• Creighton (-)
• Butler (17)
• PENN STATE (21)
• LSU (22)
• Kentucky (20)
• OHIO STATE (24)
• Marquette (-)

• 26. Illinois (25)
• 30. Rutgers (30)
• 32. Michigan (37)
• 36. Wisconsin (35)
• 39. Indiana (32)
• 44. Purdue (38)
• 50. Minnesota (40)
• 150. Northwestern (132)
• 154. Nebraska (136)

[MaximumSam]

Really key win for the Bucks at Michigan. Heck of a game

[ELA]

The curse of the high preseason ranking appears to be alive and well in East Lansing.