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Topic: 2018 Season Stream of Completely Off-Topic Unconsciousness
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TyphonInc · « **Reply #378 on:** April 15, 2018, 10:47:56 AM »

I think it's easy to say the USA Gymnastics scandel (386 girls abused) dwarfed the PSU scandel (52 boys abused.)
And to say both events are horrendous.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #379 on:** April 18, 2018, 07:14:42 AM »

Headed down to make my first ever wire transfer of a substantial sum today. The process looks to be simple. RE transactions require wire transfers in OH and GA these days and there apparently has been some fraud about changing the wiring addresses.

I triple checked mine. Seems good.

On to the ATL Friday in a rented minivan full of "stuff" for Move One and closing on Monday. We also have a reunion of the fantasy camp fellows at the Braves game Saturday night. I've been to two of those and it's pretty fun, good group of guys. I paid for camp this year but had a family matter arise and could not make it, but they sent the gear I would have gotten which I appreciate.

These camps are a lot of fun for me, and give me a reason to try and stay in decent shape physically. Baseball of course is not a good sport for geezers.

FearlessF · « **Reply #380 on:** April 18, 2018, 10:00:57 AM »

Quote from: TyphonInc on April 15, 2018, 10:47:56 AM

I think it's easy to say the USA Gymnastics scandel (386 girls abused) dwarfed the PSU scandel (52 boys abused.)
And to say both events are horrendous.

HBO is probably working on the MSU movie already

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #381 on:** April 18, 2018, 10:20:41 AM »

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on April 14, 2018, 10:34:32 PM

I do wonder whether this will sufficiently decrease the "cost" of an onside kick attempt enough that we will see more coaches take that chance more often.

This is an interesting take and I could see it happening. With the new rules it almost seems like the best-case-scenario for the kicking team is for their opponent to start at their 25. An unsuccessful onsides kick attempt usually results in the receiving team getting the ball at around mid-field. So, the question is, is it worth giving up the ~25 yards for the chance of getting the ball. That, of course, depends on the likelihood of getting the ball but it might be a good risk to take.

FearlessF · « **Reply #382 on:** April 18, 2018, 10:55:57 AM »

I'd like the coach of the team I'm rooting for try more onsides kicks

even if you don't get the ball, you force the opponent to cover that threat and limit what they can do in the return game

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #383 on:** April 18, 2018, 11:10:16 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 18, 2018, 10:20:41 AM

This is an interesting take and I could see it happening. With the new rules it almost seems like the best-case-scenario for the kicking team is for their opponent to start at their 25.

I'm still not sure I believe that. I'd have to find advanced stats (that I'm not sure are easy to get a hold of) that correlates kickoff distance with field position.
But my gut and my memory suggest that median field position for a kick that is caught between say 2 yards deep and the 5 yard line is within the the 25 yard line. I.e. that more than 50% of kicks that go that distance are not brought out past the 25.
Now, it wouldn't shock me at all if the same metric, but referring to the mean field position rather than the median, is beyond the 25. Because any big return will skew the mean, whereas most of the sub-median kicks probably get to at least the 15, so they'll all be clustered close to 25. I.e. one kick taken to the house offsets on average fifteen kicks that make it out to the 20 yard line when you're calculating the mean.
So for a kick like that, the downside to the receiving team is starting maybe on the 19 instead of the 25. But the potential upside is a touchdown. I can only imagine that most kick returners would be instructed to return the kick. Just as they return kicks taken 1-3 yards deep today. If the coaches really believed that a touchback was better, they'd tell the returners to take a knee if the receive the ball ANYWHERE in the end zone.
This is also why I think most kickers are instructed to kick the ball as far as they can, and why kickers who generate a lot of touchbacks are highly prized. Because it's better for the coverage team to have a touchback than to risk a touchdown.
What I think this takes away is the high, angled kick meant to land around the 10-15 yard line and give the coverage team time to get down the field. Because I can see THOSE kicks simply being fair caught. But I can't imagine things changing much when teams opt to just kick it away deep.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #384 on:** April 18, 2018, 11:59:09 AM »

Bwar:

I agree with what you said and I particularly liked your review of mean/median, most people have trouble with that.

I think I was wrong to say "best case scenario" but let me clarify my theory here:

If you had the advanced stats you would want to compare these things:

The average opponent field position after YOUR kicker kicks and YOUR coverage team covers a normal kickoff.
The average points scored on drives starting from that position against YOUR defense.
The average points scored per kickoff by returns against YOUR kicker and YOUR coverage team (ie, if you give up a TD every 100 kickoffs then this number is 0.07 (7/100)).
The percentage chance of successfully executing an onside kick.
The average points scored by YOUR offense on drives starting from the average location after a successful onside kick.
The average points scored against YOUR defense on drives starting from the average starting field position after an unsuccessful onside kick attempt.

Then I think the math is [6-2+3] (<=>) 4*5.

Let me flesh out this example:

Say the average opponent field position after a kick is the 30 yard line.
So the average points scored against your defense from 70 yards away is 1.5.
Say you give up, on average, a TD every 100 kickoffs then this is 0.07.
Say you successfully execute an onside kick 10% of the time.
Say your average points scored after getting the ball at that location is 4.
Say the average points given up on drives starting from that location is 5.

The math is 5-1.5+0.7 (<=>) .1*4
4.2>0.4 so you should not attempt the onside kick.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #385 on:** April 18, 2018, 12:46:12 PM »

Medina, agreed.

My point distilled down to the root is this:

People are suggesting via their response to the rule that this rule change will result in any kick that is caught inside the 25 will likely result in a fair catch. Because if your returner will catch the ball on the 4, why not just fair catch it? You get the ball on the 25, so you're all good.

My point is that in practice, behavior won't change much. The receiving team is more likely to go for the big payoff and get a return with MUCH better field position than the 25, so they don't have incentive to fair catch except in certain very specific scenarios [such as a high angled kick caught by someone other than the primary kick returners].

So in practice, this rule will change VERY little. Behavior of the receiving team will barely change. People are making a mountain out of a molehill, assuming the behavior will change much more significantly.

FearlessF · « **Reply #386 on:** April 18, 2018, 01:58:21 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 18, 2018, 12:46:12 PM

So in practice, this rule will change VERY little. Behavior of the receiving team will barely change. People are making a mountain out of a molehill, assuming the behavior will change much more significantly.

I agree with this as a national average, but....... as Badger stated regarding Wisconsin's coverage unit....
Inside individual games with different strengths and/or weaknesses in the cover/return units
this could make a considerable difference
as such, this could affect coaches strategies

Drew4UTk · « **Reply #387 on:** April 18, 2018, 02:05:19 PM »

personally, i think the rule stinks.

special teams, especially coverage teams, are staffed generally with underclassmen with need to demonstrate ability to follow direction/assignment, and hunger to play. this is cutting that off at the knees. furthermore, and alluded to by @847badgerfan , it is a big part of 'edge' coaches seek... some coaches don't think too much about special teams. then there are coaches who leverage it for all it's worth to gain an edge playing it to perfection and confining teams to predictable paths out.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #388 on:** April 18, 2018, 02:08:20 PM »

I'm trying to work through what the result will be and I don't think we'll really know for a year or more.

I'm thinking the big change is that it takes away a lot of the motivation to try the high kick to the corner.

FearlessF · « **Reply #389 on:** April 18, 2018, 02:12:36 PM »

it's simply one more rule change in the evolution of the game

it's simply rewarding the return team with better field position in some cases - the high deep corner kick

a reward for the offense and designed possibly to protect players, but will obviously lead to more points scored

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #390 on:** April 18, 2018, 02:48:44 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on April 18, 2018, 01:58:21 PM

I agree with this as a national average, but....... as Badger stated regarding Wisconsin's coverage unit....
Inside individual games with different strengths and/or weaknesses in the cover/return units
this could make a considerable difference
as such, this could affect coaches strategies

After Wisconsin's "kick the ball out of bounds and take the penalties due to clock rules" strategy, I trust that their coaches will work to maximize strategy within the new rules

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 18, 2018, 02:08:20 PM

I'm thinking the big change is that it takes away a lot of the motivation to try the high kick to the corner.

Quote from: FearlessF on April 18, 2018, 02:12:36 PM

it's simply rewarding the return team with better field position in some cases - the high deep corner kick

Agreed, which is what I've been saying since the start. Now there's no payoff to the high corner kick, which means teams will more often just kick it deep... Which incidentally may increase the number of return attempts relative to touchbacks.

I actually liked Saban's response for this reason. He said if you want more touchbacks, just move the kicking like back to the 40 where it was decades ago. If a team wants a touchback, even your most noodle-legged kicker can probably put it into the back of the end zone from the 40. But doing that retains the strategy of the high kick if you're trying to pin someone deep, and actually increases the relative success rate of the onside kick (as if you pass, you're 5 yards closer to the end zone and if you fail, the receiving team is 5 yards farther away).

847badgerfan · « **Reply #391 on:** April 18, 2018, 03:55:59 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 18, 2018, 02:48:44 PM

After Wisconsin's "kick the ball out of bounds and take the penalties due to clock rules" strategy, I trust that their coaches will work to maximize strategy within the new rules

That coach works for the Patriots now, so I heard today.

This rule will definitely hurt UW.

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Topic: 2018 Season Stream of Completely Off-Topic Unconsciousness

TyphonInc

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

Cincydawg

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

FearlessF

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

medinabuckeye1

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

FearlessF

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

betarhoalphadelta

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

medinabuckeye1

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

betarhoalphadelta

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

FearlessF

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

Drew4UTk

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

medinabuckeye1

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

FearlessF

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

betarhoalphadelta

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

847badgerfan

Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness