This is an interesting take and I could see it happening. With the new rules it almost seems like the best-case-scenario for the kicking team is for their opponent to start at their 25.
I'm still not sure I believe that. I'd have to find advanced stats (that I'm not sure are easy to get a hold of) that correlates kickoff distance with field position.
But my gut and my memory suggest that median field position for a kick that is caught between say 2 yards deep and the 5 yard line is within the the 25 yard line. I.e. that more than 50% of kicks that go that distance are not brought out past the 25.
Now, it wouldn't shock me at all if the same metric, but referring to the mean field position rather than the median, is beyond the 25. Because any big return will skew the mean, whereas most of the sub-median kicks probably get to at least the 15, so they'll all be clustered close to 25. I.e. one kick taken to the house offsets on average fifteen kicks that make it out to the 20 yard line when you're calculating the mean.
So for a kick like that, the downside to the receiving team is starting maybe on the 19 instead of the 25.
But the potential upside is a touchdown. I can only imagine that most kick returners would be instructed to return the kick. Just as they return kicks taken 1-3 yards deep today. If the coaches really believed that a touchback was better, they'd tell the returners to take a knee if the receive the ball ANYWHERE in the end zone.
This is also why I think most kickers are instructed to kick the ball as far as they can, and why kickers who generate a lot of touchbacks are highly prized. Because it's better for the coverage team to have a touchback than to risk a touchdown.
What I think this takes away is the high, angled kick meant to land around the 10-15 yard line and give the coverage team time to get down the field. Because I can see THOSE kicks simply being fair caught. But I can't imagine things changing much when teams opt to just kick it away deep.