Teams with 1st loss Week 9:
South Florida
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 9:
Appalachian State
Florida
Iowa
North Carolina State
Texas
San Diego State
Teams with 1st win Week 9:
San Jose State
Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
Week 0/1: 36.92% (48/130)
Week 2: 34.15% (28/82)
Week 3: 37.04% (20/54)
Week 4: 38.34% (13/34)
Week 5: 33.33% (7 of 21)
Week 6: 21.43% (3 of 14)
Week 7: 27.27% (3 of 11)
Week 8: 37.50% (3 of 8)
Week 9: 20% (1 of 5)
Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
4: Notre Dame, UCF, Clemson, Alabama
-With South Florida falling to Houston, there are no longer any possible remaining games between undefeated teams before bowl season. The last game for this year between undefeateds in the regular season ended up being Clemson/North Carolina State 2 weeks ago.
-San Jose State beat UNLV this week to remove their name from the winless column. We have only one winless team remaining. UTEP lost this week 19-0 to a good UAB team.
-This week continued to narrow down our likely possible Orange/Cotton Bowl teams. With Iowa and Wisconsin losing, the Big Ten probably now needs one of Ohio State or Michigan to win out. With Texas losing, the Big 12 is probably down to Oklahoma or West Virginia with any decent shot. The PAC-12’s small hope remains with Washington State. The ACC is definitely down to Clemson or bust.
-The path for the SEC to get 2 teams in has not lessened, but all of that will likely come down to Alabama losing 1 game. That can come with LSU beating Alabama and going to the SEC Championship or Georgia/Kentucky (odd to write) winning out. With a 1-loss SEC champ and a 1-loss Alabama (assuming they lose close), I think the likelihood of 2 SEC teams is high. Best way to avoid that is for Alabama to win the SEC.
-Group of 5 race continues to narrow too. Remember this spot is only for the highest Group of 5 conference champ and, with all 5 conferences having conference championship games this year, it means we don’t know the exact 5 teams the comparison will be between until the end of the season. That said, we can look between the undefeated and one loss teams and get a semi-decent idea of where teams stand.
UCF: They control their own destiny for sure as the only undefeated team in a Group of 5 conference. If they lose one, put them with the 2 below.
Cincinnati, South Florida, Houston: If they win out, stand pretty strong chance of getting the bid. The 2 Mountain West teams might beat them out depending on how everyone looks down the stretch.
Utah State, Fresno State: Both will be strongly considered with any 1-loss American champ.
UAB: Winning out would mean beating Texas A&M (might or might not be ranked). I’d still say a Mountain West or American 1-loss team would have an edge over them, but would probably beat a 2 loss team in that case.
Buffalo/Georgia Southern: I think they both probably need to win out and then hope everyone else has 2 losses. Even at that point, probably need some help.
Week 10 Thoughts:
-We have 2 games between undefeated/1-loss teams playing 1-loss teams and both take place in the SEC with huge stakes. They are Georgia @ Kentucky and Alabama @ LSU. In both cases, the underdog is at home.
Georgia @ Kentucky: This game is for the SEC East. The winner goes to Atlanta no matter what else happens.
Alabama @ LSU: Alabama is locked into Atlanta with a win and LSU controls their destiny with one. Alabama losing a close one sets SEC into best position it can to get to get 2 spots.
-Our 1 winless team UTEP plays on the road at 1-8 Rice. This is a good chance for their first win.
-Our other undefeated teams play in the following: Temple @ undefeated Central Florida, Louisville @ undefeated Clemson, undefeated Notre Dame @ Northwestern
Notre Dame @ Northwestern: Notre Dame keeps pushing through but has not always been impressive. Northwestern has rarely been impressive looking but has won several high profile games in addition to suffering some ugly loses. They are still very much in the Big Ten West race somehow and, if they play well, can win this game.
-Our other 1-loss teams play in the following: Miami (OH) @ 1-loss Buffalo, Nebraska @ 1-loss Ohio State, 1-loss Georgia Southern @ Louisiana-Monroe, 1-loss West Virginia @ Texas, Tulane @ 1-loss South Florida, Navy @ 1-loss Cincinnati, Penn State @ 1-loss Michigan, 1-loss Houston @ Southern Methodist, UTSA @ 1-loss UAB, 1-loss Oklahoma @ Texas Tech, 1-loss Fresno State @ UNLV, Cal @ 1-loss Washington State, 1-loss Utah State @ Hawaii
-Penn State @ Michigan: Michigan needs to win this to stay in playoff bowl chase. Penn State is not out of the Big Ten East race yet though either (although needs a lot).
-West Virginia @ Texas: Texas is the favorite here. This will be a battle to a) keep Texas in the Big 12 race and b) keep West Virginia in both the Big 12 and national title chase. This starts the tough stretch for the Mountaineers.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, SEC: 1, independents: 1, total: 4
Clemson
Central Florida
Alabama
Notre Dame
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 3, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 0, total: 16
Houston
Michigan
UAB
Utah State
Fresno State
Georgia Southern
Washington State
Buffalo
Louisiana State
Oklahoma
Kentucky
Georgia
West Virginia
Ohio State
Cincinnati
South Florida
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 0, total: 1
UTEP
