2018 Michigan Season thread

[ELA]

It's been 15 years to the day. Still remember many of the snaps vividly. Sorry Gophers.


https://twitter.com/MVictors/status/1050014370942644225

Kicked off the best weekend of college football I can ever remember

[Anonymous Coward]

Ha, nope. Navarre and Asad Abdul-Khaliq. Man, just typing those names is a blast from the past. Navarre was one of my all-time favorites. He didn't have the talent of guys who came after him, but he may be Michigan's most productive QB of the millenium. I didn't check a stat book for yards per year or comp%, so I might get some facts in my face for saying this.

[ELA]

Ha, nope. Navarre and Asad Abdul-Khaliq. Man, just typing those names is a blast from the past. Navarre was one of my all-time favorites. He didn't have the talent of guys who came after him, but he may be Michigan's most productive QB of the millenium. I didn't check a stat book for yards per year or comp%, so I might get some facts in my face for saying this.

His career completion percentage of 56.1% trails only the following UM quarterbacks to follow him:
Denard Robinson (57.2%)
Wilton Speight (58.8%)
Chad Henne (59.7%)
Tate Forcier (60.0%)
Devin Gardner (60.4%)
Jake Rudock (64.0%)
Matt Gutierrez (65.9%)
Shea Patterson (68.8%)
He is ahead of O'Korn though!  
But yes, I actually like him too, and he immediately preceded a major change in college football, such that it's kind of unfair to compare.  Actually both he and Henne are surprisingly low on UM lists that aren't cumulative.  For example, both Devin Garnder and Denard Robinson had a better passer rating, higher yards per attempt and better completion percentage than Navvare, and same when compared Henne except for Denard-Henne completion percentage.  Shows how quickly our expectations of quarterbacks has changed.  

[Anonymous Coward]

Egg on face.

You're exactly right about the passing revolution. 60% almost used to be statue deserving on its own. Now praise is very mixed until the guy consistently hits 70%.

[Mdot21]

https://collegesportsmaven.io/michigan/football/zach-charbonnet-highlights-michigan-commitment-J9Z8tqGdNka-fQWClkFiiA/

Yeah. He's good. Zach Chabornett is by far the best RB recruit Harbaugh has landed yet. Not quite Najee Harris level but damn is he close. Instant starter next year in my opinion.

[Anonymous Coward]

I've been very impressed with Warrinner so far. Last season we could NEVER run zone. This year, Zone and Down G (with little tweaks each week) is the majority of our offense. We run almost zero Power & Counter anymore. I don't have the education to analyze it much deeper than that. But even for an amateur like me, this turnaround speaks for itself.

[Anonymous Coward]

As for that OL, I don't know whether it's MSU or PSU but one of these will be the best defense they've faced since ND (and unless OSU really turns it around) the best they'll face until the postseason. The next two games are acid test time.

[Mdot21]

As for that OL, I don't know whether it's MSU or PSU but one of these will be the best defense they've faced since ND (and unless OSU really turns it around) the best they'll face until the postseason. The next two games are acid test time.

Not sold on Penn State’s defense at all. That secondary sucks and it cost them a game. Lewerke was trying his best to give Penn State that game and those DBs just wouldn’t take it. Plus it’s a home night game for Michigan- and they seem to play much better in that situation than any.
Much more sold on Sparty’s D and the game is on the road where Harbaugh has proven to struggle. The only thing giving me hope is it’s a noon start and MSU won vs PSU. Had they lost they would’ve been backed into a corner and that’s not an MSU team I want to face. 
I don’t know what to think of Ohio State’s defense right now. 
I’m rolling with Sparty having the best D they’ll see the rest of the way.

[Anonymous Coward]

Up front, I think that's absolutely true. It's MSU. Through the air, maybe no one (but PSU > MSU), though OSU has by far the most coverage talent. They just *seem* to be reeeeally missing Kerry Coombs (word emphasized bc it's my best guess).

[Honestbuckeye]

Up front, I think that's absolutely true. It's MSU. Through the air, maybe no one (but PSU > MSU), though OSU has by far the most coverage talent. They just *seem* to be reeeeally missing Kerry Coombs (word emphasized bc it's my best guess).

The question is Health.  If you have to face a healthy Bosa, Landers, Jones and young- there will be no comparison to anything they have seen, including PRACTICE.  
The big weakness has been LBs, and one of the safety spots.  OSU seems to have a pattern of giving up huge plays in first half, and shutting teams down in the second. But runs or passes, mostly can be traced to LB over pursuing or otherwise being out of position and giving up gap integrity. Who knows if it gets better, but the team speed on D will be as good as you have seen including ND.

[Anonymous Coward]

True about Bosa. My (partially educated) hunch is that he's out until the post season, but of course j haven't read his charts for that guess to be worth much. What do you think about Sheffield, meanwhile? All the talent in the world, but he seems to be consistently picked on for his mistakes whenever I view.

[Honestbuckeye]

True about Bosa. My (partially educated) hunch is that he's out until the post season, but of course j haven't read his charts for that guess to be worth much. What do you think about Sheffield, meanwhile? All the talent in the world, but he seems to be consistently picked on for his mistakes whenever I view.

You may be on to something with that Coombs observation. Sheffield is a track star with great hips, but often loses the battle for the ball because he does not turn his head. Seems to be a common thing for Arnette. And Okudah too.  Rarely are they beaten by separation.
But most of the passing yardage given up has been on RPOs, in that area just behind the LBs.  And for whatever reason, it’s all or mostly in first halves.  From Eleven Warriors:

“The Jekyll and Hyde defense was on full display yesterday as it surrendered 14 points, 238 total yards, 128 rushing yards on 6.4 per carry and a 67% completion rate while failing to register a sack with just two tackles-for-loss in the opening half. But after regrouping at intermission, the Buckeyes came out and held the Gophers to zero points, 150 total yards, 50 rushing on 3.8 per carry and a 45% completion rate while tallying two sacks, three tackles-for-loss and four pass breakups over the final two quarters.

You'll recall the same thing happened last week as Indiana put up 20 points and 317 total yards including 7.8 yards per carry in first half only to muster just six points, 89 total yards and 0.5 yards per carry in the second.

Look, there are a ton of things wrong with this defense but if you're searching for a positive, it rests on the unit's ability to tighten the screws in the second half. And of course that its poor first half showings haven't cost the team a game yet.

OSU has only given up 53 points in 2nd half- 8 point average. But against a really good team that will eventually bite them.”

I think Meyer needs to put his foot down. Schiano’ high pressure press man is statistically better than when Ash was running zone schemes like quarters coverage ( copied from MSU).  But teams did not have explosive plays and usually had to put together long drives to score.

[Anonymous Coward]

Some crazy stats:

Michigan's leading tacklers:

1. Devin Bush, average tackle = 2.1 yards from LOS
2. Chase Winovich, average tackle = -0.2 yards from LOS

An offense that not even fans thought could become "merely ok":

#1 nationally at getting into 3rd and short (21% of the time)
#2 nationally at avoiding 3rd and long
#1 for average yards to go on 3rd down (5.6)    -- but maybe this is a BS stat as there must be offenses (Bama?) that rarely see 3rd down at all

Of course, Michigan is also #129 at converting 3rd and long. So there's your recipe for stalling them. Be awesome versus the ground game and competent versus the pass.

[Anonymous Coward]

Mgoblog had this to say in the Wisconsin game recap and (because opponent slants have been the D's main weakness and Don Brown's willingness to switch to zone at Michigan has been an unknown) it feels major:

The other half: spooky zones. James Light has been tweeting about Don Brown's "trap" coverages since his hire, but they were rarely called and rarely made an impact in his first couple years. In year three with a bunch of veterans they've become more prominent, never more so on the Metellus interception. Herbstreit got this exactly right on the fly:

View this at 6:45:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pkSRDRcgs4

Long aligns in press presnap and appears to run man against the outside receiver, but

He falls off as Michigan baits the very throw Hornibrook made and the deflection falls kindly to Metellus. Long would get another PBU on similar action in the second half.
In addition to this stuff on deep outs, Michigan ended what I expected to be a night full of slants before they even began. On Wisconsin's first third down of the night, Devin Bush buzzed a slant and got a deflection. (Wisconsin actually caught that deflection, but short of the sticks.) That might have been Wisconsin's last slant of the night? I can't remember any completed, or even attempted, afterwards.
Michigan started the year getting a bunch of RPS minuses when Notre Dame successfully attacked their man coverage; since they've been far more crafty about mixing in changeups. It feels like a fully armed and operational battle station.