I think Kansas State can give Mississippi State some trouble, and it being an early road kickoff, I may pick Kansas State
I don't think the talent gap between Pitt and Penn State will allow motivation to be a factor. Also comparing to like a UM-MSU game, yes the game means more to MSU fans than UM fans, but MSU recruits the area so heavily, it also trickles into the roster. For Pitt-Penn State, while it's probably a bigger game for Pitt fans than PSU, it's not like PSU has a clear alpha rivalry like UM does, and Pitt doesn't seem to have the same local recruiting base MSU does, that I'm not sure the game means to Pitt players what it means to Pitt fans.