2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[grillrat]

Well, Purdue essentially has Carsen Edwards and...….?

Maybe Cline?  Maybe Haarms?

This year is looking a lot like Robbie Hummel's last year.  He was still really really good, and the supporting cast around him wasn't horrible, but not great either.  Just bad enough to come out on the losing end of close games (like the 3 point loss to Xavier or the 2 point loss to Butler.  I want to say they lost 6 games that year by 5 points or less).  IIRC, that team also started the year ranked but limped into the tournament at 20 wins.  They won the first game and then went up against Kansas.  The rest is blocked out in my memory.

[Anonymous Coward]

Maryland is a good team.

I overlooked that. Based on Kenpom standards, yep, that's a good win.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Ok. "Yet." I'd gamble them to hit 20 or 21 wins. I doubt that could come without enough big wins to be in. Is 20 wins unrealistic? Is a bid at 19 strictly-point-strictly impossible?

Ok, so OOC assuming a win over ND will probably be 8-3. And they're 1-1 in conference, thankfully already having finished their only game against UM.
Remaining conference:
Home: IA, RU, IU, MSU, MIN, NEB, PSU, IL, OSU
Away: MSU, WIS, OSU, PSU, MD, IU, NEB, MIN, NU
I've got likely wins in bold, likely losses in italics, and anything remaining is IMHO is in between. With those 18 games, would need a 11-7 record to finish 12-8 in conference to get to 20 wins. Given that I've already penciled in 6 losses in there, I feel like it's going to be really hard to get there.
Now, there are possible options. Say we finish with 19 wins, but then take 2 games in the BTT. Maybe that does it. But I get the feeling that Purdue might be relying on a strong showing in the conference tourney to make it to the right side of the bubble. 

[ELA]

All the computers still really like Purdue.  Their losses are totally forgivable, but none of of the wins are impressive.  So really we have no idea until they start playing more of those middling games.  Maryland is nice, but those home games are the ones you have to have.  It's when they start playing bubble teams on the road (like an Iowa or Penn State or Minnesota) or home games against like a Wisconsin or UM or MSU, that we'll know more.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Agreed. Just saying that without the impressive wins, we're rapidly reaching a point where there is no margin. With such a young team, that's a difficult place to be.

[medinabuckeye1]

I find it incredibly unlikely that the Boilers will miss. I'd like another outsider's opinion because your take seems needlessly pessimistic.

To answer your question I started setting up the 2018-2019 projection chart.  I have a lot of work left to get it ready but from here it looks like Michigan has the most favorable B1G schedule and Purdue the least:

• The three potential road games that the Wolverines do not play this year are all against tier-2 teams (Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue) which means that Michigan misses three of the five toughest games they could possibly have.  
• The three potential road games that the Boilermakers doe not play this year are against a tier-4, a tier-5, and a tier-6 team which means that Purdue misses three of the easier potential road games.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Thoughts on tiers:
A few questions:
In the past our tier-based projections have been based on the theory that a team would lose road games against teams in their tier and the two tiers below.  Ie, on a 26 game double-round-robin schedule Michigan would go 19-7 with road losses to the five tier-2 schools and the two tier-3 schools.  Similarly, all of the tier-2 schools would go 16-10 with road losses to the tier-1 school, the other tier-2 schools, the tier-3 schools, and the three tier-4 schools.  The last few years home court seems to be less important so I'm thinking we should switch to just the adjacent tiers.  Ie, on a 26 game double-round robin schedule Michigan would go 21-5 with road losses to the five tier-2 schools.  Similarly, the tier-2 schools would go 19-7 with road losses to the tier-1 school, the other tier-2 schools, and the tier-3 schools.  
Do we have consensus on tiers:

• Michigan
• MSU, UW, tOSU, UNL, PU
• UMD, IU
• IA, PSU, NU
• MN, RU
• IL

[betarhoalphadelta]

I thought by tier, you would lose on the road to ONE tier below you, but two tiers below you would win home or away...

[medinabuckeye1]

I thought by tier, you would lose on the road to ONE tier below you, but two tiers below you would win home or away...

I think the last few years we did two but yeah, I agree.  It is or should be and will be one.  Based on the tentative tiers (not accounting for any upsets that already happened because I haven't set all that up yet):

• We will project Michigan to go 18-2.  We would project them to go 21-5 in a double-round-robin and the six games that they do not play are three projected losses (@UNL, @tOSU, @PU) and three wins (vIL, vIA, vRU) thus 18-2.  
• We would project the tier-2 teams to go 19-7 in a double-round-robin and once I get everything set up I'll have projections for them all but for now Purdue misses six wins (@IL, @IA, @RU, vM, vNU, vUW) so their projection will be 13-7.  

[ELA]

I thought by tier, you would lose on the road to ONE tier below you, but two tiers below you would win home or away...

Yeah, we always did just one tier I thought

[Anonymous Coward]

I don't yet know what to make of this. Well, except "Poor Damn Fran McCaffery," I don't.

Coaches in close games (win% in close ones graphed against frequency of closeness):


https://twitter.com/hoopvision68/status/1072161035400986624

[ELA]

Fran is about where I'd expect him.  Not a bad coach, but just about the last guy I'd want in a tight situation.  In fairness, he was probably already ejected for about half of those losses.

[847badgerfan]

Kids feed off their head coach, and when the head coach melts down, well, that's that.



In other news, UW got a transfer yesterday. Micah Potter from Ohio State has pledged to the Badgers and will enroll next semester.

[MaximumSam]

Kids feed off their head coach, and when the head coach melts down, well, that's that.



In other news, UW got a transfer yesterday. Micah Potter from Ohio State has pledged to the Badgers and will enroll next semester.

He should be a good fit there, has a good inside outside game.