We are getting to the point where we are starting to narrow down potential seeds in the BTT to a level that is manageable to discuss.
The top three:Purdue is 0-1 against Michigan and 1-1 against Michigan State. The Boilermakers lose all ties because they would lose a tie with the Wolverines based on their H2H record and they would lose a tie with the Spartans based on their inferior record against Michigan.
If Purdue wins (@NU) they will tie the M/MSU winner for the B1G Championship, lose that tie, and get the #2 seed. If they lose then they will tie the M/MSU loser for 2nd/3rd, lose that tie, and get the #3 seed.
The M/MSU winner gets the regular season Championship (or co-Championship depending on what PU does) and the #1 seed. The loser gets the #2 or #3 seed depending on what Purdue does.
The final double-bye:The #4 seed is somewhat important in that the team that gets it can watch the Thursday games and rest up for the Fri-Sun tournament. Of course it is also important to Wisconsin fans because of their recently broken (last year) long streak of getting a top-4 seed. Wisconsin (12-6) and Maryland (12-7) are in the running. Iowa could theoretically tie for #4 but it would be a three-way tie with UW and UMD and Maryland would win that tie. Short version: Maryland wins all ties, Wisconsin loses all ties, Iowa loses to UMD but beats UW.
Wisconsin controls their own destiny because if they win out (vIA, @tOSU) they would finish alone in 4th place. Maryland needs to win (vMN) and for UW to lose one of their last two to get it by tiebreaker or to win and for UW to lose out to get it outright.
The fifth and sixth seeds: Maryland will be #4 or #5, Iowa will (most likely) be #5 or #6, Wisconsin could be #4, #5, or #6.
About that #6 seed: If the Hawkeyes lose out (@UW, @UNL) they could wind up tied with Ohio State and/or Minnesota. The Hawkeyes went 1-1 against the Buckeyes and 0-1 against the Gophers. The Buckeyes went 1-0 against the Gophers so the potential 6th place ties break as follows:
- Iowa and Ohio State: Iowa wins based on their superior record against Michigan.
- Iowa and Minnesota: Minnesota wins based on H2H.
- Iowa, Ohio State, and Minnesota: Ohio State (2-1) wins based on H2H2H, Minnesota (1-1) is second (#7 seed), Iowa (1-2) loses (#8 seed).
After that it gets complex:Minnesota is currently in 7th place at 9-10, 1/2 game ahead of Ohio State (8-10). Those are the two most likely teams for the #7 and #8 seeds but, as we have seen above either of those teams could steal the #6 seed if Iowa loses out. Additionally, Rutgers (7-11), Illinois (7-11), and Indiana (6-12) could each at least tie Ohio State for eighth.
Taking the teams one at a time:9-10 Minnesota (@UMD):The Gophers would lose a tie with tOSU (0-1 H2H), win a tie with RU (better record against PU), and win a tie with IU (1-0 H2H). A tie with Illinois is more complicated. Minnesota and Illinois split their series so the tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the conference. Illinois' best win is over MSU whom they only played once (1-0) while Minnesota's best win is over PU whom they played twice (1-1). Thus, a tie between MN and IL would be determined based on whether or not Purdue finished ahead of MSU in the final standings. If PU finishes ahead of MSU then MN wins a tie with IL, if PU finishes tied with or behind MSU then IL would win a tie with MN.
If Minnesota wins in College Park they would finish 10-10 and no worse than tied with Ohio State for 7th/8th but they would lose that tie. However, Iowa (if they lose out) would also be in that tie making it a tie for 6th/7th/8th and in that case Minnesota would get the #7 seed.
If Minnesota loses in College Park they could still get the #7 seed but that would require Ohio State to lose out and either IL to lose a game or PU to finish ahead of MSU.
8-10 Ohio State (@NU, vUW):The Buckeyes would win a tie with MN (1-0 H2H), most likely win a tie with RU (record against MN), win a tie with IU (1-0 H2H), and lose a tie with IL (record against MSU).
If the Buckeyes win out they can do no worse than the #7 seed and would get the #6 seed if Iowa loses out AND MN wins out.
If the Buckeyes split their last two they would still probably get the #7 seed provided that MN loses in College Park and the #8 seed if not. That is really up in the air because 9-11 could be anything from tied with MN for 7th/8th to tied with RU and IL for 8/9/10.
If the Buckeyes lose out they will finish 8-12. That would be behind MN so no better than 8th but they could be behind or tied with RU and/or IL and potentially tied with IU. One clarification is that if IU finishes 8-12 that will mean that neither RU nor IL can do better than 8-12 which would mean that Ohio State and Indiana would finish in a two, three, or four way tie with each other and possibly Rutgers and/or Illinois.
7-11 Rutgers (vPSU, @IU): The Scarlet Knights would lose a tie with MN (record against PU), most likely lose a tie with tOSU (record against MN), lose a tie with IL (0-1 H2H). RU would lose a tie with IU (record against MSU). RU would lose a tie with PSU (record against M).
If the Scarlet Knights win out they will finish 9-11. That could be as good as tied with MN for 7th/8th or as bad as tied with IL for 9th/10th.
If the Scarlet Knights split their last two they will finish 8-12. That could be as good as tied with tOSU for 8th/9th or as bad as tied with IU and IL for 9th/10th/11th.
If the Scarlet Knights lose out they will finish 7-13. That could be as good as tied with the IL/IU loser for 10th/11th or as bad as tied with PSU for 11th/12th.
7-11 Illinois (vIU, @PSU): As noted above, a tie between Illinois and Minnesota would be determined by whether PU finished ahead of MSU in the final standings. The Illini win a tie with tOSU (record against MSU), win a tie with RU (1-0 H2H), lose a tie with IU (0-2 H2H), win a tie with RU (1-0 H2H), and lose a tie with PSU (0-2 H2H).
If the Illini win out they will finish 9-11. That could be as good as tied with MN for 7th/8th or as bad as tied with RU for 9th/10th.
If the Illini split their last two they will finish 8-12. That could be as good as tied with tOSU for 8th/9th or as bad as tied with RU and IU for 9th/10th/11th.
If the Illini lose out they will finish 7-13. That could be as good as tied with the IU/RU loser for 10/11th or as bad as tied with PSU for 11th/12th.
6-12 Indiana (@IL, vRU): Indiana's case is interesting because their two remaining games are against the two teams immediately ahead of them in the standings. If Indiana loses either game, they cannot tie the team that they lost to. The Hoosiers would win a tie with tOSU (record against MSU), win a tie with RU (record against MSU), win a tie with IL (2-0 H2H), win a tie with PSU (1-0 H2H), and lose a tie with UNL (0-1 H2H).
If the Hoosiers win out that will necessarily give the Illini and Scarlet Knights each a 12th loss. The Hoosiers would finish 8-12. That could be as good as tied with tOSU for 8th/9th (tOSU would win the tie but it would only determine jersey color for the 8/9 game). Conversely, 8-12 could be as bad as tied with RU and IL for 9th/10th/11th.
If the Hoosiers split their last two they will finish 7-13. They would be behind whichever team they lost to and no better than tied with the team they defeated. That could be as good as tied with RU/IL for 9th/10th or as bad as tied with Penn State for 10th/11th.
If the Hoosiers lose out they will finish 6-14. That could be as good as 11th or as bad as tied with UNL for 12th/13th.
5-13 Penn State (@RU, vIL):The Nittany Lions would win a tie with RU (record against M), win a tie with IL (2-0 H2H), lose a tie with IU (0-1 H2H), win a tie with UNL (record against M), and win a tie with NU (1-0 H2H).
If the Nittany Lions win out they will finish 7-13. That could be tied with RU and IL or ahead of IU but it can't be both because in order for that to be tied with RU and IL the Hoosiers would also have to win out. Thus, the best-case-scenario for the Nittany Lions would be to finish 7-13 and tied with RU and IL for 10th/11th/12th.
If the Nittany Lions split their last two games they will finish 6-14. That could be as good as tied with IU for 11th/12th or as bad as tied with UNL for 12th/13th.
If the Nittany Lions lose out they will finish 5-15. That could be as good as tied with UNL for 12th/13th or as bad as tied with PSU for 13th/14th.
5-14 Nebraska (vIA):The Cornhuskers would win a tie with IU (1-0 H2H), lose a tie with PSU (record against M), and win a tie with NU (1-0 H2H).
If the Cornhuskers beat Iowa they will finish 6-14. That could be as good as tied with IU for 11th/12th or as bad as alone in 13th place.
If the Cornhuskers lose to Iowa they will finish 5-15. That could be as good as tied with PSU for 12th/13th or as bad as tied with NU for 13th/14th.
3-15 Northwestern (vtOSU, vPU):The Wildcats are the first team to officially clinch a seed in the BTT. The best they could do is to tie PSU and/OR UNL for the bottom two or three spots but the Wildcats are 0-season against the Nittany Lions and Cornhuskers so they lose any tie and will get the #14 seed regardless. The Wildcats will play #11 at 9pm on Wednesday, March 13 in the United Center.
