2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[betarhoalphadelta]

Boilers survive. Tied for 1st.

[847badgerfan]

Badgers play the Goophers in MPLS Wednesday. Pretty big game for both teams.

[medinabuckeye1]

Updated for this weekend's games, the tiers are (with +/-):

• MSU -1, Michigan -2
• Purdue even
• Maryland -1
• Wisconsin +1, Iowa even (+1,-1)
• Minnesota even (+1,-1), tOSU even (+1,-1), Indiana -1 (+1,-2)
• Northwestern +1, Nebraska even (+1,-1)
• Illinois +2, Rutgers +2 (+3,-1), PSU -1

So the teams outside of +/-1 are:

• +2 Illinois
• +2 Rutgers
• -2 Michigan

I don't know that we necessarily need to make any changes right now.  Michigan is -2 but they are a tier-1 team that started out with 19 projected wins.  That is a LOT of opportunities for negative variance, it happens.  Rutgers and Illinois are the inverse.  They are tier-7 teams that started the year with 16-17 projected losses.  That is a LOT of opportunities for positive variance, it happens.  

Thoughts?  

[medinabuckeye1]

If we don't make any changes to the tiers (see above), the updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:

• 17-3/28-3 Michigan (wins tiebreaker over MSU and PU based on H2H2H, no game in W. Lafayette)
• 17-3/26-4 Michigan State (second in H2H2H tiebreaker with M and PU)
• 17-3/24-7 Purdue (last in H2H2H tiebreaker with M and MSU)
• 13-7/22-9 Maryland
• 12-8/20-11 Wisconsin (wins tiebreaker with IA based on H2H, won in Iowa City)
• 12-8/23-8 Iowa
• 9-11/18-13 Indiana (wins tiebreaker with MN and tOSU based on record against the 17-3 teams)
• 9-11/19-12 Minnesota (second in tiebreaker with IU and tOSU: loses to IU based on record against the 17-3 teams, beats tOSU based on record against the 12-8 teams)
• 9-11/19-12 Ohio State
• 7-13/16-15 Northwestern
• 6-14/10-21 Illinois
• 5-15/12-18 Rutgers (wins tiebreaker with UNL based on H2H, no game in Lincoln)
• 5-15/15-16 Nebraska
• 2-18/9-22 Penn State

Match-ups at the BTT in the United Center would be:
Wednesday, March 13, 2019:

• #11 Illinois vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
• #12 Rutgers vs #13 Nebraska, 6:30pm on BTN

Thursday, March 14, 2019 (Pi Day):

• #5 Wisconsin vs IL/PSU, 3pm on BTN
• #6 Iowa vs RU/UNL, 9:30pm on BTN
• #7 Indiana vs #10 Northwestern, 7pm on BTN
• #8 Minnesota vs #9 Ohio State, 12:30pm on BTN

Friday, March 15, 2019:

• #1 Michigan vs MN/tOSU, 12:30pm on BTN
• #2 Michigan State vs IU/NU, 7pm on BTN
• #3 Purdue vs IA/RU/UNL, 9:30pm on BTN
• #4 Maryland vs UW/IL/PSU, 3pm on BTN

Saturday, March 16, 2019:

• M/MN/tOSU vs UMD/UW/IL/PSU, 1pm on CBS
• MSU/IU/NU vs PU/IA/RU/UNL, 3:30pm on CBS

Sunday, March 17, 2019:

• M/MN/tOSU/UMD/UW/IL/PSU vs MSU/IU/NU/PU/IA/RU/UNL, 3:30pm on CBS

[847badgerfan]

Updated for this weekend's games, the tiers are (with +/-):

• MSU -1, Michigan -2
• Purdue even
• Maryland -1
• Wisconsin +1, Iowa even (+1,-1)
• Minnesota even (+1,-1), tOSU even (+1,-1), Indiana -1 (+1,-2)
• Northwestern +1, Nebraska even (+1,-1)
• Illinois +2, Rutgers +2 (+3,-1), PSU -1

So the teams outside of +/-1 are:

• +2 Illinois
• +2 Rutgers
• -2 Michigan

I don't know that we necessarily need to make any changes right now.  Michigan is -2 but they are a tier-1 team that started out with 19 projected wins.  That is a LOT of opportunities for negative variance, it happens.  Rutgers and Illinois are the inverse.  They are tier-7 teams that started the year with 16-17 projected losses.  That is a LOT of opportunities for positive variance, it happens.  

Thoughts?  

I'm thinking PSU could be alone at the bottom, and I still don't think we need #2. MSU, M and PU belong in the same tier. What havoc does that cause though?

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm thinking PSU could be alone at the bottom, and I still don't think we need #2. MSU, M and PU belong in the same tier. What havoc does that cause though?

Combining tier-1 and tier-2 would only change the projection for Michigan and Michigan State road games at Maryland.  Michigan State doesn't play at Maryland this year so no change there.  Michigan does but not until the penultimate game of the regular season on March 3.  
At the bottom it isn't clear to me what you mean.  Are you suggesting that we create a new bottom tier with just PSU in it or that we move ILL and RU up into the tier with NU and UNL?  
Moving Penn State down into their own tier would impact the projection for PSU home games against NU and UNL.  They don't host NU this year and they haven't hosted UNL yet.  
Alternatively, moving IL and RU up (into the NU/UNL tier) would impact the projection for their home games against IU, tOSU, and MN:

• IL v IU:  3/7
• IL v tOSU:  L 77-67 (technically neutral site but treated as an IL home game because that is what it replaced)
• IL v MN:  W 95-68
• RU v IU:  W 66-58
• RU v tOSU:  W 64-61
• RU v MN:  2/24

So the Illini are 1-1 in these games with one to play.  The Scarlet Knights are 2-0 with one to play.  

[847badgerfan]

I was thinking of moving RU and UI up a tier, leaving PSU in the basement.

[medinabuckeye1]

I was thinking of moving RU and UI up a tier, leaving PSU in the basement.

Proposed new tiers with +/- (if I don't say, the team is even):

• Purdue, MSU-1, Michigan-2
• Maryland-1
• Wisconsin+1, Iowa (+1,-1)
• tOSU+2, Minnesota+1, Indiana (+1,-1)
• Northwestern +1, Illinois (+1-1), Nebraska (+1,-1), Rutgers (+1,-1)
• PSU-1

I'm not positive on all of those +/- figures because there are some changes I need to work through.  I think that is it.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Massey Composite

5. MSU
7. UM
9. PU
16. Wisc
21. MD
24. IA
34. OSU
35. UNL
45. IU
47. MN
63. NU
88. PSU
98. RU
99. IL

I think you can almost group MSU/UM/PU in tier 1 right now. While Purdue didn't look as good in December, I'd say they're playing every bit as strongly as those two teams right now. Then you have an empty tier 2, but I think instead of keeping it empty you remove it and move everyone else up. 

Wisconsin has been surging as well. I'd find it easy to move them up into Tier 2 and move Maryland [who has been sliding] down into tier 3. After that, everything looks easier. I do think Nebraska is in freefall relative to the composite rankings, so they will get knocked heavily. So perhaps something like:

• MSU, Michigan, Purdue
• Wisconsin
• Maryland, Iowa
• Ohio State
• Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern
• Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois

That erases MN@IL as an upset, as well as IU@RU... Not sure what other havoc it would cause though. 

[847badgerfan]

Minnesota move up??

[bayareabadger]

Badgers play the Goophers in MPLS Wednesday. Pretty big game for both teams.

Do not like this game. Gophers looked feisty Sunday at Purdue. Numbers like UW, but I’m on edge about it. 

[ELA]

Massey Composite

5. MSU
7. UM
9. PU
16. Wisc
21. MD
24. IA
34. OSU
35. UNL
45. IU
47. MN
63. NU
88. PSU
98. RU
99. IL

I think you can almost group MSU/UM/PU in tier 1 right now. While Purdue didn't look as good in December, I'd say they're playing every bit as strongly as those two teams right now. Then you have an empty tier 2, but I think instead of keeping it empty you remove it and move everyone else up.

Wisconsin has been surging as well. I'd find it easy to move them up into Tier 2 and move Maryland [who has been sliding] down into tier 3. After that, everything looks easier. I do think Nebraska is in freefall relative to the composite rankings, so they will get knocked heavily. So perhaps something like:

• MSU, Michigan, Purdue
• Wisconsin
• Maryland, Iowa
• Ohio State
• Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern
• Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois

That erases MN@IL as an upset, as well as IU@RU... Not sure what other havoc it would cause though.

I always wait to post it until Tuesday, because it takes a minute to get all the rankings in.

[847badgerfan]

• MSU, Michigan, Purdue
• Wisconsin
• Maryland, Iowa
• Ohio State
• Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern
• Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois

1. MSU, UM, PU
2. UMD
3. UW, IOWA
4. OSU, MN
5. UNL, IU, NU, UI, RU
6. PSU

[betarhoalphadelta]

Do not like this game. Gophers looked feisty Sunday at Purdue. Numbers like UW, but I’m on edge about it.

It was my first real time watching Minnesota. If you saw the game, Painter did something he's never done all season--put Tre Williams and Matt Haarms on the court at the same time. Our other PFs (Grady Eifert and Aaron Wheeler) just couldn't contain Minnesota's second big very well, and Minnesota is a team that plays 2 bigs. Eifert is strong, but he's only 6'6" and not particularly athletic, so he has a pretty big disadvantage if the other team is throwing a second big who is 6'9" or taller. Wheeler is 6'9" and athletic, but is a beanpole so doesn't have the strength to deal with very strong PFs. Minnesota's front line reminded me a bit of the Hammons/Haas/Biggie season for Purdue, where we could just throw absurd size at any team in the country. 
I don't know who UW has beyond Happ, or if there's enough depth of big men to play two together... But the effectiveness of the Gophers playing two big men together except when Purdue put two out there to match was a surprise takeaway for me.