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Topic: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

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ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2436 on: March 21, 2019, 06:35:25 PM »
Well, they survived. Better lucky than good.

Really want Turgeon gone.
My Maryland buddy texted me that LSU-Maryland will be the first NCAA game between two teams without a head coach.  Yikes.

JerseyTerrapin

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2437 on: March 21, 2019, 06:39:42 PM »
Suspended? By Boeheim? Who'd the kid kill?
And how many?

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2438 on: March 21, 2019, 08:11:20 PM »
No, he didn’t miss it on purpose but after the game Turgeon said he probably should have told him to miss it on purpose.  Belmont’s shot was a heave. They rebounded it, one pass up the court, and the kid just launched from about 60 feet or so.  Didn’t come close.
Thank you!

JerseyTerrapin

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2439 on: March 21, 2019, 09:22:54 PM »
I wasn't watching but had it on ESPN's game cast.  Three questions:
  • When UMD took that last foul shot did they intentionally miss to roll the clock?  
  • When Belmont took that three at the end that would have won it, how far out was it, how good of a shot, how close?
  • On the ESPN site it appeared that somehow no time at all elapsed from UMD's foul shot until UMD rebounded the missed three.  What actually happened?
Ha, Medina, I  "watch" a lot of Gamecast and I often have the same kinds of questions.  You can't quite get the full picture sometimes...

bwarbiany

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2440 on: March 22, 2019, 12:15:42 AM »
5-0 start for the conference. 

MichiFan87

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2441 on: March 22, 2019, 12:39:13 AM »
Great night for Michigan. They dominated Montana unlike last year (and many guarantee home games in non-con play that should've been more decisive). There were still some bad moments to be sure, but it was great to see Matthews find his offense.

Florida beat Nevada, but I really wasn't impressed with either team, and I'm glad the Gators won. Nevada is more talented and experienced but seemingly undisciplined and not used to facing power conference teams (they beat USC and Arizona State this year, but that's not saying much). Meanwhile, Florida is another defensive-minded team, but they still nearly choked in the second half after getting a big lead, and LSU is the only good team that they've beaten.

Point being, Michigan matches up well with the Gators. If Michigan plays well it shouldn't be close. If they don't, it'll be similar to games like Minnesota (home), but we'll see.

I'll add that I'll be curious to see how Buffalo and Texas Tech do tomorrow. Gonzaga clearly has an easy path on the other side with Murray State's upset and Florida State's struggles with Vermont, while Baylor beat Syracuse.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2442 on: March 22, 2019, 05:35:07 AM »
Standard Performance by seed, what to expect from the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament:

  • We have two #2 seeds (MSU, M).  Based on past performance of #2 seeds, they each have a 92.12% chance to win the opening 2/15 game and a 62.5% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.  Cumulatively, these two should get 1.88 R32 berths and 1.25 S16 berths.  
  • We have one #3 seed (PU).  Based on past performance of #3 seeds, they have an 84.56% chance to win the opening 3/14 game and a 51.47% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.  
  • We have one #5 seed (UW).  Based on past performance of #5 seeds, they have a 65.44% chance to win the opening 5/12 game and a 33.82% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.  
  • We have one #6 seed (UMD).  Based on past performance of #6 seeds, they have a 62.5% chance to win the opening 6/11 game and a 30.88% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.  
  • We have two #10 seeds (MN, IA).  Based on past performance of #10 seeds, they each have a 38.24% chance to pull the upset in the 7/10 game and a 16.91% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.  Cumulatively, these two should get 0.76 R32 berths and 0.34 S16 berths.  
  • We have one #11 seed (tOSU).  Based on past performance of #11 seeds, they have a 37.5% chance to pull the upset in the 6/11 game and a 16.18% chance to reach the Sweet Sixteen.  

As we watch the first weekend, here is what our eight teams cumulatively should produce:
  • 5.14 teams should make it to the round of 32.  Thus, if we have five alive as of Friday night that is about average.  Six is better than average, four is worse than average.  Anything more than six is REALLY good and anything less than four is REALLY bad.  
  • 2.91 teams should make it to the Sweet Sixteen.  Thus, if we have three teams in the Sweet Sixteen that is slightly better than average.  If we have two, that is below average.  One or less would be REALLY bad.  Four or more would be REALLY good.  

I don't think anyone other than possibly @bwarbiany will care, but here is the math behind all of that:
SeedR64R32
199.26%85.29%
294.12%62.50%
384.56%51.47%
479.41%47.06%
565.44%33.82%
662.50%30.88%
761.76%19.85%
850.00%9.56%
950.00%5.15%
1038.24%16.91%
1137.50%16.18%
1234.56%14.71%
1320.59%4.41%
1415.44%1.47%
155.88%0.74%
160.74%0.00%

SeedTeam1Team2TeamsR32 %S16 %R32 TeamsS16 Teams
2MSUM294.12%62.50%1.8823531.25
3PUn/a184.56%51.47%0.8455880.514706
5UWn/a165.44%33.82%0.6544120.338235
6UMDn/a162.50%30.88%0.6250.308824
10MNIA238.24%16.91%0.7647060.338235
11tOSUn/a137.50%16.18%0.3750.161765
Total-----5.1470592.911765

Taking this into account, I'm thrilled with our 5-0 start!
At this point, any additional wins are gravy.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2443 on: March 22, 2019, 07:51:16 AM »
Friday's games:
  • #10 Iowa plays #7 Cincinnati at 12:15 in Columbus on CBS
  • #5 Wisconsin plays #12 Oregon at 4:30 in San Jose on TBS
  • #11 Ohio State plays #6 Iowa State at 9:50 in Tulsa on TBS
In theory:
  • #10 seed Iowa has a 38.24% chance to win today, and
  • #5 Wisconsin has a 65.44% chance to win today, and
  • #11 Ohio State has a 37.5% chance to win today
We should get at least one more team into R32 and we have a not completely unrealistic chance to get another.  From a conference-wide perspective I'd be happy with six, thrilled with seven, and ecstatic with all eight.  

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2444 on: March 22, 2019, 08:58:25 AM »
Louisville "fan" mad.


U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2445 on: March 22, 2019, 09:00:31 AM »
Dumbass still can't beat a gopher.

U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2446 on: March 22, 2019, 12:17:28 PM »
How many Iowa fans made the trip?  3?

bwarbiany

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2447 on: March 22, 2019, 12:31:54 PM »
How many Iowa fans made the trip?  3?
Based on how the game started, did Iowa leave a few players in Iowa City? :smiley_confused1:

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2448 on: March 22, 2019, 12:45:27 PM »
Based on how the game started, did Iowa leave a few players in Iowa City? :smiley_confused1:
Based on the way Iowa's season ended I pretty much expected that.  They have been in a tailspin for a month.  

TyphonInc

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #2449 on: March 22, 2019, 01:01:06 PM »
Watching the Iowa Cin game. I haven't seen this before but 22 from Cincinnati is getting offensive rebounds, by turning his back to the rim and out pushing the big men from Iowa. (They are back to back) Iowa trying to box out, he is "boxing in"? and I've watch him at least 3 times now go over the back but they don't call it because it's his back going over the back. One play he was literally riding on the back of the Iowa defender and no call.

 

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