A little more detail on the B1G's three bubble teams:
Ohio State 8-10/18-11: Prior to the blowout loss to Purdue the Buckeyes were a projected #9 seed (Lunardi) and the Worldwide leader's bubble watch seemed to suggest that they might already be a lock with their comment that Ohio State's worst case scenario of 18-13 overall and 8-12 in conference "should get the job done". Now they are down to a #10 seed.
Frankly, I never thought that Ohio State was a lock in part because their worst case isn't actually 8-12/18-13 but 8-13/18-14 with a BTT loss. I just don't think that will get it done. As mentioned above, we project the Buckeyes to lose both of their remaining scheduled games but they are both close calls (@NU, vUW). Those are even bigger question marks due to the indefinite Kaleb Wesson suspension. The Buckeyes could lose both, lose to NU without him then beat UW with him, beat NU and lose to UW, or beat NU (probably without Wesson), then beat Wisconsin (with or without). Who knows. ESPN says that Ohio State has a 53.7% chance to beat Northwestern and a 48.2% chance to beat Wisconsin. That suggests that the Buckeyes are very likely to go 1-1.
As far as BTT seed, the Buckeyes are projected to finish in a three-way tie with MN and RU for 8th/9th/10th and win that tie to get the #8 seed. If they win one of their last two the Buckeyes would move into a projected tie with IL for 7th/8th and lose that tie so no change in seed. However, if the Buckeyes won both or if Illinois lost one of their projected wins (vIU, @PSU) and Ohio State won one then the Buckeyes would likely finish alone in seventh place.
I've been saying since mid January that I thought the Buckeyes were a borderline tournament team and at this point that is almost guaranteed. Their worst-case-scenario is probably barely out and their best-case scenario is not much better than "barely in".
Minnesota 8-10/18-11: The Gophers have been just behind the Buckeyes, bouncing between barely in and barely out in projected brackets for a while and that hasn't changed. Their last two games (vPU, @UMD) are great opportunities in that winning would be REALLY good but they are landmines because winning is REALLY unlikely. IMHO, if Minnesota loses both of those remaining games they are going to need to win some games in Chicago. This would be particularly problematic for the B1G if the Gophers and Buckeyes both end up in the same boat and playing each other in their opening game of the BTT because the loser would likely be out.
As far as BTT seed, we currently project them to finish in the three-way tie with Ohio State and Rutgers. That is REALLY up in the air though because the other two members of that tie and Illinois (projected to finish one game ahead) each have two remaining games that could plausibly go either way.
Indiana 6-12/15-14: The Hoosiers are just an odd team. Upthread,
@ELA said that they would probably get swept this week/weekend by Illinois and Rutgers. Judging by Indiana's performance this season that sounds about right: Beat two good teams (UW, MSU) then lose to two bad teams (IL, RU). Indiana has great wins (MSU2x, Louisville, Marquette, Wisconsin but they also have a slew of questionable-to-bad losses. We project them to split their two remaining games with a loss in Champaign and a home win over Rutgers. In that case they would head to the BTT at 7-13/16-15 with a lot of work to do. That said, Indiana could certainly win both and head to Chicago at 8-12/17-14. That record, with their collection of high-end wins would put them firmly in the Bubble discussion.
Indiana's BTT seed may be the biggest riddle of all. The Hoosiers' next two opponents (IL, RU) are the two teams that are currently one game ahead of them in the standings. Thus, by winning out the Hoosiers guarantee themselves of no worse than a tie with the Illini and Scarlet Knights. Additionally, Minnesota and Ohio State are both two games ahead of the Hoosiers and projected to lose out so we could end up with a five-way tie for 8th/9th/10th/11th/12th. That would be interesting but it is also, at least for now, highly unlikely. Here are IU's possibly relevant H2H tiebreaking records:
- 0-1 v tOSU
- 0-1 v MN
- 0-1 v RU with one more to play
- 1-0 v IL with one more to play
- 0-1 v UNL
- 1-0 v PSU
There is a decent chance that all three bubble teams will get to Chicago in need of at least one more win so the best thing for the conference as a whole would be if they managed to avoid each other. That is somewhat unlikely because they are all likely to fall in the 7/8/9/10 range but it isn't impossible.