2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

Been talking so much about OSU next year I've been looking at other teams, and really, the B1G as a whole is pretty young.  UM could potentially return everyone and MSU could return a whole lot.

Some guys getting mentioned as draft prospects.  From NBADraft.net

7. Bruno Fernando, Maryland
13. Romeo Langford, Indiana
23. Jalen Smith, Maryland
37. Ignas Brazdeikas, Michigan
40. Carsen Edwards, Purdue
47. Tyler Cook, Iowa
56. Charles Matthews, Michigan

To run it out to his 2020 mock, oddly not a ton of Big Ten NBA talent next year.  Lots of 4 year program guys though.
16. Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois
23. Aaron Wiggins, Maryland
42. Lamar Stevens, Penn State
Also it seems like the decision to return basically never pans out.  Fernando seems to be the exception.  Matthews' stock has plummeted, Happ isn't even projected to get picked at all.

[JerseyTerrapin]

To run it out to his 2020 mock, oddly not a ton of Big Ten NBA talent next year.  Lots of 4 year program guys though.
16. Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois
23. Aaron Wiggins, Maryland
42. Lamar Stevens, Penn State
Also it seems like the decision to return basically never pans out.  Fernando seems to be the exception.  Matthews' stock has plummeted, Happ isn't even projected to get picked at all.

I'm no expert, but I feel like Lamar Stevens is NBA ready now.  
In fact, I hope he gets drafted and signs between now and 6:30 p.m. on Wednesday.

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't have time for the complete update right now, but after MSU's upset win in Ann Arbor we now project the Wolverines NOT to get a double-bye.  

• We project that MSU and PU will both win out and tie for the league Championship and get the #1 and #2 seeds at 17-3.  
• We project that UW and UMD will finish 15-5 and tied for 3rd/4th.  
• We project that M will finish 14-6 and in 5th place.  
• We project that Iowa will finish 12-8 and in 6th place.  
• We project that Illinois will finish 9-11 and in 7th place.  
• We project that Ohio State will finish 8-12 and in 8th place.  
• We project that MN and RU will finish 7-13 and tied for 9th/10th.  
• We project that IU, NU, and UNL will finish 5-15 and tied for 11th/12th/13th.  
• We project that PSU will finish 4-16 and in 14th place.  

[medinabuckeye1]

I guess I'm not seeing it for UW right now. I believe Maryland currently has the tiebreaker too??

If this was meant as a question for me, you are correct.  Wisconsin looks really bad in tiebreakers generally.  Specifically with Maryland:

• First is H2H, they split.  
• Second is record against PU and MSU (projected).  UW went 0-2.  

That said, it might not matter.  We project two more losses for Michigan (@UMD, @MSU) and if that happens the Wolverines will finish 14-6 while we project UMD and UW to finish 15-5 and tied for 3rd/4th.  Wisconsin would lose that tie and get the #4 seed but they would still be in the top-4 and get the double-bye.  

If Michigan wins at Maryland, that works for the Badgers as well because it would move UM's projection up to 15-5 and UMD's down to 14-6 and in that case UW would be tied for 3rd/4th with Michigan instead of Maryland.  I'm pretty sure they lose that tie too, but again, they would still be in the top-4.  

All of the above, of course, assumes that Wisconsin will win out.  We project that they will, but there are certainly some games that they could lose.  They travel to Bloomington to play a desperate Hoosier squad tomorrow, then they host PSU and Iowa and they finish the season in Columbus against what very well could be a desperate squad of Buckeyes.  

[bayareabadger]

This IU game scares me. 

UW is winnning/competing, but not seeming to oaky so well. IU is terribly due. Bleh. 

[847badgerfan]

This IU game scares me.  

Weird season. I feel this way about every damn game they play.

[MaximumSam]

Terrible.
Sad state of affairs today. Meant as a compliment, and the guy gets fried for it.

I read some about that and it seemed very suspicious.  As in it didn't seem like anyone was actually mad about it but he was suspended for the season.  Plus he was suspended earlier in the year over something else.  Seems like either the athletic department or someone using it as a cover for another issue.

[ELA]

This IU game scares me.

UW is winnning/competing, but not seeming to oaky so well. IU is terribly due. Bleh.

Indiana is the reverse.  They are competing, and then finding ways to lose.

[847badgerfan]

I can't find the thread we had for the FBI hoops stuff. But this is interesting. Maybe ELA or someone else can find the old thread? I forgot how to search here.



https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-arizonas-sean-miller-lsus-will-wade-notified-will-subpoenaed-federal-hoops-corruption-trial-180149786.html

[medinabuckeye1]

Updated projections:

• 17-3/26-5 Michigan State (wins tiebreaker over PU based on record against the 15-5 teams)
• 17-3/24-7 Purdue
• 15-5/24-7 Maryland (wins tiebreaker over UW based on record against the 17-3 teams)
• 15-5/23-8 Wisconsin
• 14-6/25-6 Michigan
• 12-8/23-8 Iowa
• 9-11/13-18 Illinois
• 8-12/18-13 Ohio State
• 7-13/17-14 Minnesota (wins tiebreaker over RU based on record against the 15-5 teams)
• 7-13/14-16 Rutgers
• 5-15/15-16 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker over IU and NU based on H2H2H, 2-0)
• 5-15/14-17 Indiana (loses H2H2H to UNL, beats NU based on record against the 17-3 teams)
• 5-15/14-17 Northwestern
• 4-16/11-20 Penn State

Thus, the BTT match-ups would be:
Wednesday, March 13:

• #11 Nebraska vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
• #12 Indiana vs #13 Northwestern, 6:30pm on BTN

Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):

• #5 Michigan vs IU/NU, 3pm on BTN
• #6 Iowa vs UNL/PSU, 9:30pm on BTN
• #7 Illinois vs #10 Rutgers, 7pm on BTN
• #8 Ohio State vs #9 Minnesota, 12:30pm on BTN

Friday, March 15:

• #1 Michigan State vs tOSU/MN, 12:30pm on BTN
• #2 Purdue vs IL/RU, 7pm on BTN
• #3 Maryland vs IA/UNL/PSU, 9:30pm on BTN
• #4 Wisconsin vs M/IU/NU, 3pm on BTN

Saturday, March 16:

• MSU/tOSU/MN vs UW/M/IU/NU, 1pm on CBS
• PU/IL/RU vs UMD/IA/UNL/PSU, 3:30pm on CBS

Sunday, March 17:

• MSU/tOSU/MN/UW/M/IU/NU vs PU/IL/RU/UMD/IA/UNL/PSU, 3:30pm on CBS

[847badgerfan]

I cannot overstate how bad that Minnie loss is for UW. It's going to haunt them (and me). And Minnie fans love that.

[medinabuckeye1]

B1G Bubble Watch:

LOCKS:
IMHO, MSU, PU, M, UMD, and UW are all locks.  They each have at least 11 conference wins and at least 19 overall wins.  The worst-case-scenario in this group would be Wisconsin losing out to finish 11-10/19-13 and I believe that would be enough to get the Badgers in even with the five-game losing streak.  

SHOULD BE IN:
IMHO, only Iowa is in this category.  At 10-6/21-6 it would take a catastrophic finish (losing out) for them to even finish on the bubble and they still might make it.  They can lock up a bid with a win in Columbus tomorrow night.  

ON THE BUBBLE:
7-9/17-10 Ohio State:
The Buckeyes' last four games are vIA, @PU, @NU, and vUW.  IMHO, 3-1 would put them in pretty good shape entering the BTT and 2-2 would leave them on the bubble.  If they finish 1-3 or worse they'll need a serious run in Chicago.  

7-10/17-11 Minnesota:
The Gophers are rapidly falling toward "Need a Miracle" territory.  They have now lost two straight and six of their last seven and they are running out of time to turn it around.  Their last three are @NU, vPU, and @UMD and they'll either need to win at least two of those or have a major run in Chicago.  

NEED A MIRACLE:
In theory Rutgers, Nebraska, or Indiana could get an at-large bid by winning out to the B1GCG (or close to that) but they are all rapidly approaching "Need to win BTT" territory.  

NEED TO WIN BTT:
IMHO, Illinois, Penn State, and Northwestern could only get in by winning the BTT.  

[MichiFan87]

Props to Sparty for playing their best. They only committed 6 TOs and took good shots, giving Michigan its worst defensive showing of the year (Matthews' early foul and ankle injury didn't help of course).

Poole continues to be incredibly frustrating with bad shots and dumb plays on defense. I have no idea why Johns played when Castleton looked decent against Minnesota (even Davis would've been better at center). I have no idea why they didn't get the ball to Teske more, especially in the second half, since MSU switched everything putting him on guards half the time.

Nebraska is next before the tough final two games at Maryland and Sparty....

[medinabuckeye1]

More detail on the B1G's bubble teams:

In Lunardi's latest bracketology there are multiple teams with sub .500 conference records in the field.  Within the B1G, Ohio State (currently 7-9) is in as a #10 seed and Minnesota (currently 7-10) is barely out as one of the "First Four Out".  I agree generally so I don't think that our Bubble teams necessarily need to get to 10-10 or better to get in.  

Beyond that is the issue of how well these teams will do in the BTT.  At 9-11 either the Buckeyes or the Gophers would probably get in with an 0-1 record in the BTT (it would be close, might not happen).  At 8-12 I think either would need to go at least 1-1.  

Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are currently 7-9/17-10 with four games left.  Those games, sorted from most likely win to most likely loss are:

• at Northwestern on 3/6
• vs Iowa tonight
• vs Wisconsin on 3/10
• at Purdue on 3/2

We project them to win only the Iowa game and finish 8-12/18-13.  With that record they would most likely need several wins in Chicago.  

As I see it, the Purdue game in West Lafayette is an almost certain loss.  The other three could go either way.  Iowa and Wisconsin are better teams but they come to Columbus.  Ohio State is better than Northwestern but that game is in Evanston.  

Tonight's game is enormously important for the Buckeyes because if they win it then they probably just need to split the UW/NU games but if the Buckeyes lose tonight then they need to win every winnable game from here on out.  

Minnesota:
The Gophers are 7-10/17-11 with three games left.  Those games, sorted from most likely win to most likely loss are:

• at Northwestern on Thursday
• vs Purdue on 3/5
• at Maryland on 3/8

IMHO, the Gophers have zero room for error.  They have to win the first two because I don't think they have any serious chance of winning in College Park.  We project them to lose all three and finish 7-13/17-14.