2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[847badgerfan]

I'm not looking forward to seeing that team in Madison on Monday night. It's been a long wait, but it seems to me Illinois finally has a coach.

[medinabuckeye1]

The tiers are a bit of a mess right now:

Illinois is at +3 but all three upsets have come in the last 2.5 weeks (@*UMD, vMSU, @tOSU).  I don't think this is so much a matter of our tiers being "wrong" as it is of Illinois improving a LOT.  

Ohio State is at -3 but they are back to being in a no-mans-land between tier-3 and tier-4.  In tier-3 (where they are now) the Buckeyes are -3 due to three upset losses (vIL, vUMD, @RU) but if we moved them down to tier-4 they would be at +2.  Nonetheless, I think the Buckeyes need to move down.  

Here is the comparison:  The difference between tier-3 and tier-4 is the expected result in home games against tier-2 teams and road games against tier-5 teams.  Ohio State's results in those games:

• vUW, 3/10
• vUMD, L
• @IL, W
• @RU, L
• @IU, W
• @NU, 3/6
• @UNL, W

So the Buckeyes are 3-2 in these games with two more to play but they also have an additional upset loss (vIL) so I'm going to put them back in tier-4 because +2 is closer to the projection than -3.  

Illinois is a bit more complicated.  Moving Ohio State down to tier-4 makes Illinois' home* loss to Ohio State a negative upset so they are now at +2 with their three aforementioned positive upsets and that negative upset.  The difference between tier-5 (where they are now) and tier-4 is the expected result in home games against tier-3 teams and road games against tier-6 teams.  There are only two such potential games:

• vIA, not played
• @PSU, 3/10

I think, based on their recent improvement that we should move them up.  Thus, the new tiers are:

• PU, M, MSU
• UW, UMD
• IA
• tOSU, MN, IL
• RU, IU, NU, UNL
• PSU

*Note that Ohio State's win over Illinois was a neutral site game in the United Center not a true Illinois home game but I am treating it as an Illinois home game because that it what it replaced.  

[ELA]

ESPN Bubble Watch take on last night:

A 63-56 loss at home to Illinois constitutes a Quad 3 defeat for Ohio State, the team's first such setback. In other words, the game is literally the Buckeyes' worst loss of the season in profile terms. Then again, Baylor's walking around whistling a happy tune in the brackets as a projected No. 8 seed even though the Bears have suffered two Quad 4 losses. Meaning the worry for OSU isn't necessarily the loss itself, one that this team's profile can well absorb. (Yet another reason why that win at Cincinnati is so valuable.) Rather, the concern is whether the outcome marks a new turn for the worse in performance. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Based on the new tiers listed above, our new projections are:

• 17-3/24-7 Purdue
• 16-4/25-6 Michigan State
• 15-5/26-5 Michigan (wins tiebreaker over UW based on record against PU, see below)
• 15-5/23-8 Wisconsin
• 14-6/23-8 Maryland
• 13-7/24-7 Iowa
• 10-10/14-17 Illinois
• 8-12/18-13 Ohio State
• 7-13/17-14 Minnesota (wins tiebreaker over RU based on record against UW, see below)
• 7-13/14-16 Rutgers
• 5-15/15-16 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker over IU and NU based on H2H2H, 2-0)
• 5-15/14-17 Indiana (loses tiebreaker to UNL based on H2H2H, beats NU based on record against MSU)
• 5-15/14-17 Northwestern
• 3-17/10-21 Penn State

Based on these projections the BTT match-ups in Chicago would be:
Wednesday, March 13:

• #11 Nebraska vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
• #12 Indiana vs #13 Northwestern, 6:30pm on BTN

Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):

• #5 Maryland vs IU/NU, 3pm on BTN
• #6 Iowa vs UNL/PSU, 9:30pm on BTN
• #7 Illinois vs #10 Rutgers, 7pm on BTN
• #8 Ohio State vs #9 Minnesota, 12:30pm on BTN

Friday, March 15:

• #1 Purdue vs tOSU/MN, 12:30pm on BTN
• #2 Michigan State vs IL/RU, 7pm on BTN
• #3 Michigan vs IA/UNL/PSU, 9:30pm on BTN
• #4 Wisconsin vs UMD/IU/NU, 3pm on BTN

Saturday, March 16:

• PU/tOSU/MN vs UW/UMD/IU/NU, 1pm on CBS
• MSU/IL/RU vs M/IA/UNL/PSU, 3:30pm on CBS

Sunday, March 17:

• PU/tOSU/MN/UW/UMD/IU/NU vs MSU/IL/RU/M/IA/UNL/PSU, 3:30pm on CBS

Tiebreakers:
Michigan and Wisconsin are projected to tie at 15-5.  The first tiebreaker is H2H.  They went 1-1 against each other with each team winning their home game.  The next tiebreaker is record against Purdue.  Neither team travels to West Lafayette this year.  Michigan beat the Boilermakers in Ann Arbor, Wisconsin lost to them in Madison.  Thus, Michigan wins this tie.  

Minnesota and Rutgers are projected to tie at 7-13.  The first tiebreaker is H2H.  Minnesota won their home game against Rutgers and Rutgers is projected to win their home game against Minnesota.  The next tiebreaker is record against PU where both teams are projected to go 0-season followed by record against MSU where both are projected to go 0-season.  Next is record against the two 15-5 teams (Michigan and Wisconsin).  Minnesota upset Wisconsin in Madison while Rutgers is projected to go 0-season against those two teams.  

Nebraska, Indiana, and Northwestern are projected to tie at 5-15.  The first tiebreaker is H2H2H.  Nebraska does not travel to Northwestern nor host Indiana and they won at Indiana so they are projected to go 2-0 and win this tie.  That leaves Northwestern and Indiana who went 1-1 against each other (each winning the home game) and are both projected to go 0-1 against Nebraska.  That tie gets broken based on record against the best team(s) in the conference, then the next, etc.  Indiana wins because their win over MSU is better than anything Northwestern has.  

[medinabuckeye1]

ESPN Bubble Watch take on last night:

A 63-56 loss at home to Illinois constitutes a Quad 3 defeat for Ohio State, the team's first such setback. In other words, the game is literally the Buckeyes' worst loss of the season in profile terms. Then again, Baylor's walking around whistling a happy tune in the brackets as a projected No. 8 seed even though the Bears have suffered two Quad 4 losses. Meaning the worry for OSU isn't necessarily the loss itself, one that this team's profile can well absorb. (Yet another reason why that win at Cincinnati is so valuable.) Rather, the concern is whether the outcome marks a new turn for the worse in performance.

It isn't so much a new turn for the worse as simply an illustration of the fact that this Ohio State team is capable of playing REALLY bad basketball and they seem to randomly do that from time to time.  In their last two losses (@M, vIL) the Buckeyes shot 7-34 from behind the arc and committed 37 turnovers.  They outrebounded both the Wolverines and the Illini but still took less shots due to the plethora of turnovers and then, in both cases, they suffered from horrendous long-range shooting.  More in forthcoming B1G Bubble Watch post.  

[ELA]

If the goal is winning the thing, which I truly don't think should be MSU's this year, but that's a different point, Illinois is the team I would most want to avoid right now.  They are the only team with a 2 game buffer on either side, so if you had to pick one of these seeds to not change, I suppose it would be Illinois as the 7.  So MSU as the 2 is sub ideal.  I think Iowa is MSU's best matchup of that likely 6-7-8ish group, for whatever reason, I think primarily a defense that doesn't like to put a ton of pressure on the ball, MSU has matched up very well with Iowa for a couple years now.  For a turnover prone team like the Spartans typically are, Illinois' style is a nightmare for us, as already shown.

[medinabuckeye1]

B1G Bubble Watch:
In Lunardi's latest bracketology there isn't much change for the B1G's best teams.  Wisconsin moves down to a #5 seed but otherwise the top six teams remain the same:

• #2 seeds:  Michigan, Michigan State
• #3 seed:  Purdue
• #5 seed:  Wisconsin
• #6 seeds:  Iowa, Maryland

After that, Lunardi still has Ohio State as a #9 seed while Minnesota is one of his "last four byes" with a #12 seed and Indiana is one of his "last four in" playing Oklahoma in Dayton for a #13 seed.  

Lets talk about the bottom eight teams in the B1G:

6-7/16-8 Ohio State, projected to finish 8-12/18-13:
The Buckeyes' loss last night at home to Illinois is, by far, their worst of the season but their overall profile can absorb that.  That loss did, however, significantly narrow Ohio State's path.  The projected 8-12/18-13 finish would, at best, mean that the Buckeyes would need to make a run in the United Center.  Ohio State has two games left against Northwestern and they badly need to win both.  They also have three long-shots (@PU, @UMD, @MSU) and two games that could go either way (vIA, vUW).  To get to .500 they'll have to win all the winnable games.  Anything less than that and they'll have work to do in Chicago.  

6-8/16-9 Minnesota, projected to finish 7-13/17-14:
The Gophers' loss in Lincoln is problematic because it narrows their path.  IMHO their game against Indiana in Minneapolis on Saturday is close to a "must win".  In theory they could lose at home to Indiana and make it anyway but in practice that would require winning tougher games later.  

4-9/13-11 Indiana, projected to finish 5-15/14-17:
The game in Minneapolis is important for the Hoosiers as well.  IMHO, the loser (either way) is in major trouble.  

6-8/10-15 Illinois, projected to finish 10-10/14-17:
The Illini are an interesting case.  IIRC, their 15 losses would be the most ever for an at-large team but they have some really good wins and a strong overall SoS.  If they finish REALLY well I could see them getting in with 16 losses but that would require winning out to the BTT.  Could they get in with 17 losses?  

5-9/12-12 Rutgers, projected to finish 7-13/14-16:
I do think that Rutgers has improved but not enough.  They had a REALLY LONG way to go.  They would need a miraculous finish involving winning nearly all of their remaining games.  

4-10/14-11 Nebraska, projected to finish 5-15/15-16:
Ever since the injury this just has not been a good team.  They need a miracle.  

3-10/12-12 Northwestern, projected to finish 5-15/14-17:
IMHO, this is the worst team in the league right now and I just don't see them changing that.  They need a miracle.  

2-11/9-15 Penn State, projected to finish 3-17/10-21:
The Nittany Lions have been close plenty of times and pulled off a nice upset over Michigan but they just have too many losses.  They need a miracle.  

[ELA]

I believe he also put that out yesterday afternoon, so it doesn't include OSUs loss last night, as the Bubble Watch I posted does

[medinabuckeye1]

I believe he also put that out yesterday afternoon, so it doesn't include OSUs loss last night, as the Bubble Watch I posted does

I wasn't sure because it says "updated February 14" but it wasn't clear to me whether that meant before or after Ohio State's loss to Illinois.  Either way, I consider Ohio State to be a bubble team.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Question for the group:

Assume that Illinois finishes as expected:

• Loses at Wisconsin on 2/18, 6-9/10-16
• Beats Penn State on 2/23, 7-9/11-16
• Loses at Purdue on 2/27, 7-10/11-17
• Beats Northwestern on 3/3, 8-10/12-17
• Beats Indiana on 3/7, 9-10/13-17
• Wins at Penn State on 3/10, 10-10/14-17

Would they have any chance at an at-large bid?  

Best case scenario (based on projected BTT seeds):

• Beats #10 Rutgers on Thursday, 11-10/15-17
• Beats #2 Michigan State on Friday, 12-10/16-17
• Beats #3 Michigan on Saturday, 13-10/17-17
• Loses to #1 Purdue on Sunday, 13-11/17-18

Eighteen losses would seem to be an automatic disqualifier but they'd have wins over MSU2x, M, and UMD.  

The other thing that occurred to me is this:  Does the fact that we are playing 20 conference games change the way overall records are judged and by how much?  

Assuming that you think the sub .500 overall record would be a deal-breaker, what if they won either at UW or at PU in the regular season then did all the rest of what is listed to that they finished 18-17 overall and 14-10 in B1G games?  

[ELA]

I wasn't sure because it says "updated February 14" but it wasn't clear to me whether that meant before or after Ohio State's loss to Illinois.  Either way, I consider Ohio State to be a bubble team.  

Might change the week of, but prior to that the update is always before the games of that date.

Illinois is all the way to #80 in the NET rankings.  Move up 5 more slots and road games there become Tier 1.  Which means MSU's loss there is as good a loss as your resume can have.  Also means Michigan's win there is a Tier 1 win, just like winning at Duke.
In other words, the Tiers need to be narrowed

[MaximumSam]

I'm not wildly concerned about OSU's NCAA chances, in that I don't care that much if they make it.  This is a very limited team that more or less has to scrap by to get wins.  The NIT is a perfect place for such a team.  It would be exciting to get a 10 seed in the tourney and hope for an upset bid, but I'm not going to lose sleep over it.  Next year, they will hopefully avoid huge turnover, field a full team, and have actual point guards on the roster.

[grillrat]

Question for the group:

Assume that Illinois finishes as expected:

• Loses at Wisconsin on 2/18, 6-9/10-16
• Beats Penn State on 2/23, 7-9/11-16
• Loses at Purdue on 2/27, 7-10/11-17
• Beats Northwestern on 3/3, 8-10/12-17
• Beats Indiana on 3/7, 9-10/13-17
• Wins at Penn State on 3/10, 10-10/14-17

Would they have any chance at an at-large bid?  

Best case scenario (based on projected BTT seeds):

• Beats #10 Rutgers on Thursday, 11-10/15-17
• Beats #2 Michigan State on Friday, 12-10/16-17
• Beats #3 Michigan on Saturday, 13-10/17-17
• Loses to #1 Purdue on Sunday, 13-11/17-18

Eighteen losses would seem to be an automatic disqualifier but they'd have wins over MSU2x, M, and UMD.  

The other thing that occurred to me is this:  Does the fact that we are playing 20 conference games change the way overall records are judged and by how much?  

Assuming that you think the sub .500 overall record would be a deal-breaker, what if they won either at UW or at PU in the regular season then did all the rest of what is listed to that they finished 18-17 overall and 14-10 in B1G games?  

Unfortunately, they just have too many losses to make up for.  Those Georgetown and FAU losses (especially the FAU one because that was at home) are really crippling.  They do not consider recent success (last 10 games, etc.) anymore, which is actually one of the metrics they got rid of that I thought was a mistake.
I think at this point, Illinois can look at next season as being a breakout season and I would definitely take a potential NIT berth if offered.

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm not wildly concerned about OSU's NCAA chances, in that I don't care that much if they make it.  This is a very limited team that more or less has to scrap by to get wins.  The NIT is a perfect place for such a team.  It would be exciting to get a 10 seed in the tourney and hope for an upset bid, but I'm not going to lose sleep over it.  Next year, they will hopefully avoid huge turnover, field a full team, and have actual point guards on the roster.

I'm in about the same place except that I would like to get an NCAA bid if for no other reason than simply to keep the (one year) streak going.  
Looking forward I'm optimistic.  The three seniors aren't contributing all that much and I don't think anyone is ready to leave early so they should bring back the vast majority of their contributors.  I looked into it not long ago and Freshman and Sophomores were contributing about 60% of the minutes, about 64% of the points, and about 64% of the rebounds.  I think that bodes well for Ohio State's 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 teams.