Buckeyes ascend to #1 on SP+ on the strength of their offense, which is miles ahead of the next team.
Right now, I don't see Penn State scoring 20 points against anyone, let alone Ohio State. I think the defense will perform well in the first half, then get worn down as they end up spending 45 minutes on the field.
I think Ohio State is good, but I'm not sure HOW good. Looking at Ohio State compared to their opponents' opponents:
Here is the trend for the offense:
- vs Minnesota: 1st by far of 7 teams to play against MN
- vs Oregon: 2nd of 7 against OR
- vs Tulsa: 2nd of 7 against Tulsa
- vs Akron: 2nd of 8 against Akron
- vs Rutgers: 1st of 7 against Rutgers
- vs Maryland: 1st of 7 against Maryland
- vs Indiana: 1st of 7 against Indiana
Here is the trend for the defense:
- vs Minnesota: 6th of 7 teams to play against MN
- vs Oregon: 5th of 7 against OR. Only better than winless Zona and FCS Stony Brook. UGLY!
- vs Tulsa: 3rd of 7 against Tulsa
- vs Akron: 1st of 8 against Akron
- vs Rutgers: Tied with Michigan and MSU for 2nd/3rd/4th of 7 against Rutgers
- vs Maryland: 3rd of 7 against Maryland
- vs Indiana: 3rd of 7 against Indiana
Ohio State's offense:
IMHO, this unit is SCARY good. They've scored the most against four of their seven opponents and they were second best against the other three. Even in the three where they didn't score the most it was close. One point less than Auburn against Akron, a FG less than UCLA against Oregon, and four points less than Houston against Tulsa. Ohio State's should be EASILY the best offense that PSU's defense has faced. That said, I don't think that means they are going to drop 50 on the Lions.
Ohio State's defense:
This may be optimistic, but I *THINK* that the Buckeyes have figured out their issues and have a pretty good defense now. Looking at the comparisons for Ohio State's first two opponents it is clear that Ohio State's early season defense was horrible. Since then things have been decent to good. That said, I hesitate to read too much into Ohio State's defensive performance because the opposition has been soft. Tulsa isn't very good. Akron is horrible. Rutgers is looking worse and worse. Maryland is inconsistent and Indiana had mascots, cheerleaders, and water boys playing QB.
Penn State's offense *SHOULD* be easily the best unit that tOSU's defense has faced at least since Oregon and probably all year. The problem is that Illinois' defense somehow made the Nittany Lions look just absolutely dreadful on offense.
- Clifford was 19/34 for 165 yards and a TD. The 19 of 34 is barely over 50% which would be fine if he had been throwing bombs but he wasn't. It was less than nine yards per completion and less than five yards per attempt.
- Penn State rushed 29 times for 62 yards, an average of 2.1 per carry. Even if you back out Clifford's 5 for -28 you still only have 24 for 90 or 3.75 ypc. That is not good.
I just don't think that it is realistic to expect PSU's defense to hold tOSU's offense below about 30 points. That makes things tough for PSU because they have only scored 30+ against Ball State and Villanova. Even if tOSU's defense hasn't improved as much as I think/hope that they have, I have a hard time believing they are in the BallSt/Villanova category.
More detail on the comparisons:
Minnesota:
Ohio State scored 45 and gave up 31. The 45 scored is the most on MN this year with their other opponents scoring:
- 26 - Miami, OH
- 23 - Nebraska
- 16 - Maryland
- 14 - BGSU
- 13 - Purdue
- 0 - Colorado
So Ohio State's offense looks good but the defense, not so much. Minnesota has scored:
- 34 vs Maryland
- 31 vs tOSU
- 31 vs Miami, OH
- 30 vs Colorado
- 30 vs Nebraska
- 20 vs Purdue
- 10 vs BGSU
Oregon:
Ohio State scored 28 and gave up 35. The 28 scored on Oregon is actually not too bad, here is what Oregon has given up:
- 31 vs UCLA
- 28 vs tOSU
- 24 vs Stanford (In regulation, Stanford scored another TD in OT to finish with 31)
- 24 vs Fresno
- 19 vs Zona
- 17 vs California
- 7 vs Stony Brook
So Ohio State's offensive performance against Oregon looks pretty good but the defense, not so much. Oregon has scored:
- 48 vs Stony Brook
- 41 vs Zona
- 35 vs tOSU
- 34 vs UCLA
- 31 vs Fresno
- 24 vs Stanford (all in regulation, Oregon didn't score in OT)
- 24 vs California
Tulsa:
Ohio State scored 41 and gave up 20. Here is what Tulsa has given up:
- 45 vs Houston
- 41 vs tOSU
- 34 vs ArkansasSt
- 31 vs USF
- 29 vs Memphis
- 28 vs OkSU
- 19 vs UC Davis
Once again the offense looks pretty good. In this case the defense looks a little better. Here is what Tulsa has scored:
- 41 vs ArkansasSt
- 35 vs Memphis
- 32 vs USF
- 23 vs OkSU
- 20 vs tOSU
- 19 vs UC Davis
- 10 vs Houston
Akron:
Ohio State scored 59 and gave up 7. Here is what Akron has given up:
- 60 vs Auburn
- 59 vs tOSU
- 45 vs Temple
- 45 vs Buffalo
- 34 vs OU
- 34 vs Miami, OH
- 20 vs BGSU
- 14 vs Bryant
Once again the offense looks pretty good. The one point differential compared to Auburn is basically meaningless as both games were blowouts (60-10 and 59-7) so either team could have scored more if they had so desired. In this case the defense also looks good. Here is what Akron has scored:
- 35 vs Bryant
- 35 vs BGSU
- 24 vs Temple
- 21 vs Miami, OH
- 17 vs Ohio U
- 10 vs Auburn
- 10 vs Buffalo
- 7 vs tOSU
Rutgers:
Ohio State scored 52 and gave up 13. Here is what Rutgers has given up:
- 52 vs tOSU
- 31 vs MSU
- 21 vs Northwestern
- 20 vs Michigan
- 14 vs Temple
- 13 vs Delaware
- 7 vs Cuse
Once again Ohio State's offense compares VERY well and in this case the defense does as well. Here is what Rutgers has scored:
- 61 vs Temple
- 45 vs Delaware
- 17 vs Cuse
- 13 vs Michigan
- 13 vs tOSU
- 13 vs MSU
- 7 vs Northwestern
Maryland:
Ohio State scored 66 and gave up 17. Here is what Maryland has given up:
- 66 vs tOSU
- 51 vs Iowa
- 34 vs Minnesota
- 24 vs WVU
- 17 vs Illinois
- 16 vs Kent
- 0 vs Howard
Once again Ohio State's offense compares well and in this case the defense compares well also. Here is what Rutgers has scored:
- 62 vs Howard
- 37 vs Kent
- 30 vs WVU
- 20 vs Illinois
- 17 vs tOSU
- 16 vs Minnesota
- 14 vs Iowa
Indiana:
Ohio State scored 54 and gave up 7. Here is what Indiana has given up:
- 54 vs tOSU
- 38 vs Cincy
- 34 vs Iowa
- 31 vs WKY
- 24 vs PSU
- 20 vs MSU
- 14 vs Idaho
Once again Ohio State's offense compares well. In this case the defense compares well also. Here is what Indiana has scored:
- 56 vs Idaho
- 33 vs WKY
- 24 vs Cincy
- 15 vs MSU
- 7 vs tOSU
- 6 vs Iowa
- 0 vs PSU