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Topic: #15 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at USC (2-1, 4-1) Game Week

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SFBadger96

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Re: #15 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at USC (2-1, 4-1) Game Week
« Reply #28 on: Today at 12:17:15 PM »
Michigan definitely has a better rushing offense than Illinois. Illinois is the 99th ranked total rush offense- and that's with playing 6 games vs Michigan's 5. Illinois rush YPC average is 3.7 yards- which is amongst the lowest in P4, meanwhile Michigan's nearly 3 full yards more at nearly 6.4 YPC- which is top 5 in the FBS. And this is with Michigan facing two top 5 rush defenses in the country in Wisconsin and Oklahoma- and not using their freak athlete QB in the designed run game at all. Illinois hasn't really faced a front 7 that is rated highly in stopping the run- and their rush stats are still pathetic.

Overall offense because of the passing game? Illinois might be a tad better considering their QB is a 38 year old man with a fucking mortgage whose been in college for 20 fucking years- and Michigan's QB is a true freshman who just turned like 18 a month ago.

SP+ has Illinois offense rated 18th in the nation and Michigan offense rated 31st. SP+ has Michigan as the 7th rated defense in the nation, and Illinois as the 51st rated defense.
I agree. Total offense includes both. Illinois appears to have a significantly better passing game. Michigan has a better running game. Somewhere in the wash, one total offense is better than the other.

Mdot21

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Re: #15 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at USC (2-1, 4-1) Game Week
« Reply #29 on: Today at 12:20:51 PM »
I agree. Total offense includes both. Illinois appears to have a significantly better passing game. Michigan has a better running game. Somewhere in the wash, one total offense is better than the other.
yeah definitely.

call me crazy but I just think if this Illinois team that can't really run the ball that well ran for about 175 on USC's defense- Michigan has a good shot at 250+ on the ground- especially if they actually use Underwood's legs in the game plan.

SuperMario

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Re: #15 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at USC (2-1, 4-1) Game Week
« Reply #30 on: Today at 01:47:54 PM »
We've done enough statistical analysis to say that HFA is definitely a real thing and travelling across multiple time zones makes it bigger. 

I disagree with your unsupported assertion that it "only makes a real difference" based on time/travel distance.  My argument, and the data bears it out, is that it makes the biggest difference in games like this that are relatively even matchups.  I agree with @ELA here in that I would take Michigan on a neutral field but USC is a legitimate challenge, close enough for HFA to push them over the top I think. 
Completely agree with this. 

SuperMario

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Re: #15 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at USC (2-1, 4-1) Game Week
« Reply #31 on: Today at 01:58:07 PM »
Sherrone Moore says Andrew Marsh is a starter at WR opposite Donoven McCulley going forward and has earned that right. No more Semaj Morgan or Channing Goodwin starting. Thank god. Moore said WR3 battle is still open and ongoing. Unfortunately Semaj is still their only little slot/gadget guy so he's still going to get real action.

Moore also says true freshman WR Jamar Browder is getting closer to seeing the field and showing him stuff in practice and picking up the playbook now and will be in the mix going forward. Browder is a big bodied 6'5, 215 jump ball merchant from South Florida. 

Per PFF, Michigan WR's/TE's have 14 drops on the season on passes they chart as catchable. That's a drop rate of 15.4%- which is highest in the nation- with Semaj Morgan (5) and Channing Goodwin (4) as the main culprits.
Wow, are brain cells starting to function up in Ann Arbor? It shouldn't have taken 5 weeks to see things that were clear after week 2 and some of the adjustments should have already been made at halftime or the middle of a game. Semaj Morgan is way overrated. He also shouldn't be returning punts. He has terrible hands and is going to cost them a turnover at some point. He also runs terrible routes and was easier to see watching the game live, that often he stopped on a route that he should have kept going and Underwood had to go up to him after the play and tell/teach him what should have happened with his route.

MCCulley and Marsh is a definite upgrade. McCulley is a decently average route runner, but he can go up and win balls. So give him a shot to do that more often. Marsh looks great to me. Looks like a young kid that should have been on the field since day one.  Those two with Klein and please rollout Underwood and add more play fakes than freaking bubble screens and it will help the running game, which let Haynes do his thing. Also, don't throw the ball to Bredeson. Dude is a beast and a bruiser, but don't throw him the ball. 

We're going to learn a lot about the Michigan secondary this week. My biggest concern is the secondary and teams that exploit the middle of the field.

Mdot21

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Re: #15 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at USC (2-1, 4-1) Game Week
« Reply #32 on: Today at 03:53:27 PM »
Wow, are brain cells starting to function up in Ann Arbor? It shouldn't have taken 5 weeks to see things that were clear after week 2 and some of the adjustments should have already been made at halftime or the middle of a game. Semaj Morgan is way overrated. He also shouldn't be returning punts. He has terrible hands and is going to cost them a turnover at some point. He also runs terrible routes and was easier to see watching the game live, that often he stopped on a route that he should have kept going and Underwood had to go up to him after the play and tell/teach him what should have happened with his route.

MCCulley and Marsh is a definite upgrade. McCulley is a decently average route runner, but he can go up and win balls. So give him a shot to do that more often. Marsh looks great to me. Looks like a young kid that should have been on the field since day one.  Those two with Klein and please rollout Underwood and add more play fakes than freaking bubble screens and it will help the running game, which let Haynes do his thing. Also, don't throw the ball to Bredeson. Dude is a beast and a bruiser, but don't throw him the ball.

We're going to learn a lot about the Michigan secondary this week. My biggest concern is the secondary and teams that exploit the middle of the field.
100%. it's yet another indictment on Moore as a coach that it took him this long to do something about the WR problem. I know everyone here hates former OSU coach Zach Smith- but he had a great All-22 film breakdown of Semaj Morgan- and needless to say Semaj Morgan is AWFUL. He is an awful route runner and can't catch a cold. 

McCulley and Underwood have been oh so close so many times all year- they have NOT been on the same page at all. Looks like they are starting to click- we'll see if they can continue to build on that chemistry. McCulley is sneaky underrated- good enough route runner and while not a burner faster than you think and he is a TERRIFIC 50-50 jump ball guy- his hands/ball skills are impressive- and of course it helps he's 6'5" with a nice vertical. 

Marsh looks like a future stud to me as well. Can definitely see why he was so highly rated as a recruit- if you're a composite high 4* top 100 overall player in the nation like he was- you're a bluechip recruit. And he looks the part. It was just a matter of him picking up the playbook and getting his shot. 

I'm 100% out on Semaj Morgan- he sucks. Still think there is some hope for Channing Goodwin- he's only a RS Frosh and he looks really good after the catch and he might be the most technical route runner they have and he blocks his ass off- but he HAS to start catching the football when it hits him in both hands. He's young and inexperienced though- so he has a tiny bit of an excuse. Semaj Morgan however is a SR I think and he's played plenty of snaps over the last 3 years- there is zero excuse for him to be this terrible. 

I hear what you're saying about Bredeson- but he's technically a TE/H-Back/FB hybrid- and they line him up as a TE in 12 personnel a lot- he's too valuable as a run blocker to take off the field- and while you shouldn't be throwing him the ball- Bryce scanned the field and went through his progressions to his 4th read- which was Bredeson- and he's got to catch that ball if it hits him in both hands. Easier said than done- oh don't throw it to him- especially with Hogan Hansen being out and not having another legit TE you trust to run 12 personnel. If Hogan Hansen was healthy- he's the 4th read there and he probably catches the ball. 

I'd change your line about the secondary and say we're going to learn a lot about Wink Martindale this game. Every time he tries his zone pressures he gets gashed to where the blitz was coming from. USC's OL is pretty iffy and it's missing I think 2 or 3 starters this game. There is no need to blitz so heavily here. Trust your front 4 to rush the passer and play zone coverage. If he does that- Michigan will be OK. If he doesn't- they will get gashed in the pass game.

Mdot21

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« Last Edit: Today at 04:05:55 PM by Mdot21 »

Mdot21

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Re: #15 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at USC (2-1, 4-1) Game Week
« Reply #34 on: Today at 04:04:23 PM »
PFF caveats apply, but yeah these EDGE rushers are REALLY good Wink. Stop blitzing so much, please.

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SuperMario

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Re: #15 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at USC (2-1, 4-1) Game Week
« Reply #35 on: Today at 04:29:31 PM »

I'd change your line about the secondary and say we're going to learn a lot about Wink Martindale this game. Every time he tries his zone pressures he gets gashed to where the blitz was coming from. USC's OL is pretty iffy and it's missing I think 2 or 3 starters this game. There is no need to blitz so heavily here. Trust your front 4 to rush the passer and play zone coverage. If he does that- Michigan will be OK. If he doesn't- they will get gashed in the pass game.
Ya know.. reading this made me think my initial perspective was wrong and this is probably closer to being accurate.

Mdot21

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Re: #15 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at USC (2-1, 4-1) Game Week
« Reply #36 on: Today at 04:44:02 PM »
Ya know.. reading this made me think my initial perspective was wrong and this is probably closer to being accurate.
yup. Wink has sent pressures through 5 games more than any other DC in the P4. the guy is fucking addicted to sending pressure- and he's got three plus experienced EDGE rushers in Barham, Derrick Moore, and TJ Guy and he's got a defensive tackle that can rush the passer too in Rayshaun Benny. 

there is just zero need for him to be blitz heavy this game. if he can't keep his dick in his pants here- Michigan probably loses the game. 

Jayden Maiva against the blitz? 

89.8 passing grade, 12 YPA, 87.5 Adjusted completion %, and only 1 sack taken. He's been sacked 3 times when not being blitzed. He's more susceptible to being sacked right now when he's not blitzed.

MrNubbz

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Re: #15 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at USC (2-1, 4-1) Game Week
« Reply #37 on: Today at 05:37:12 PM »
USC is the second-worst pass defense that Michigan has seen at 111th in the country, ahead of only New Mexico at 126th.
"Never delay kissing a pretty girl or opening a bottle of whiskey" - Ernest Hemingway

MrNubbz

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Re: #15 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at USC (2-1, 4-1) Game Week
« Reply #38 on: Today at 05:39:01 PM »
PFF caveats apply, but yeah these EDGE rushers are REALLY good Wink. Stop blitzing so much, please.
again that passes for Pffft,clickbait nowadays
"Never delay kissing a pretty girl or opening a bottle of whiskey" - Ernest Hemingway

Mdot21

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Re: #15 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at USC (2-1, 4-1) Game Week
« Reply #39 on: Today at 05:48:23 PM »
USC is the second-worst pass defense that Michigan has seen at 111th in the country, ahead of only New Mexico at 126th.
and their run defense ain't that good either. they do weirdly have a lot of sacks- but they haven't really played anyone with a competent OL. 

seems like a typical Lincoln Riley defense. their best defense is that high flying explosive offense.

 

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