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USC opens as a 1.5 point home favorite. Vegas thinks it's basically a pick 'em game- and Michigan would be the betting favorite if the game was in Ann Arbor or on a neutral site. O/U is 54.5 points.

USC is coming off the bye week after it's defense gave up over 500 yards to Illinois. Can USC stop the run and play physical B1G football? USC features one of the best WR's in the country in Makai Lemon and QB Jayden Maiava is playing great football and is one of the top QB's in the B1G. Michigan has not seen the type of passing attack yet that USC brings to the table, but USC also has not seen the type of defense or run game that Michigan brings to the table.

Sherrone Moore put the running training wheels back on Bryce Underwood vs Wisconsin. They called no designed runs or read options and Bryce didn't really scramble when he had open lanes. Moore needs to tell Underwood to cut it loose if he sees open run lanes and he needs to call run plays designed for Underwood and read options as well. Underwood could go for 100+ on the ground vs USC IF Sherrone Moore allows him to run the ball.

This is a huge game for both programs. USC has 5 game stretch after this where they go @Notre Dame, @Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, and then @Oregon. If they drop this one at home- have a tough time seeing them doing any better than 8-4 max. It's almost a must win game for them if Lincoln Riley wants any hope of making a playoff or B1G 'chip run. Can Lincoln Riley win a big game and can he coach a defense that isn't a sieve?

On the flip side for Michigan- can Sherrone Moore win a huge road game (other than Ohio State that is)? Is his true freshman QB ready for this moment? Will his WR's stop dropping the fucking ball? His overall road record is not great- but if they can pull off the minor upset and win and survive and continue to develop Bryce Underwood, their next 5 game stretch after this is home vs Washington, @Michigan State, home vs Purdue, @Northwestern, and @Maryland. They pull this off and go to 5-1 they'll have a great shot of building momentum and potentially heading into Ann Arbor 10-1 with a massive showdown vs Ohio State for all the marbles.

Biggest game thus far by far for both teams. USC and Lincoln Riley needs it more and it is at home- if it was anywhere else I'd pick Michigan, but because it's on the road and USC will be desperate and need it or they are done and Riley will be feeling the hot seat like no other- kind of has me leaning USC. One thing that has me holding out hope for Michigan though is USC is coming off a bye- and teams coming off byes usually slow to start and sloppy with rust to shake off- and the other thing of course is USC's defense- they haven't stopped anybody all season or really ever under Lincoln Riley.

Michigan just faced one of the best front 7's it will see all year and managed to run more than anyone has.

Michigan will run all over USC and that Charmin soft "defense" out there.

The only concern, as always, is the travel. Shouldn't be too bad for M - much closer than PSU or MD or Rutgers, for sure.

Really wish the expansion a) didn't happen or b) went to the South.

that is true, while Wisconsin struggles on the back end right now- Wisconsin does have a really good defensive front. They have lot of guys on that DL that Michigan tried recruiting. Michigan won't see a defensive front as good as Wisconsin's the rest of the year until they have to play Ohio State in Ann Arbor at the end of the season. And they ran for almost 180 on Wisconsin without involving Underwood in the run game plan. Sherrone threw the bubble wrap and training wheels back on Underwood running the ball soon as he got back. As good as Michigan's run is with Haynes and Marshall- it goes to a whole other level when you involve Underwood and when defenses have to account for the QB run.

The travel is definitely a concern. Going cross country changing 3 different time zones sucks. Thankfully it's a 7:30ET / 4:30PT kick.

PFF stats on Michigan's WR's....

Donoven McCulley:
29 Targets
19 Catches
309 Yards (16.3 YPC)
3 TD's
0 Drops
13.5 Yards Average Depth of Target

Semaj Morgan:
24 Targets
16 Catches
187 Yards (11.7 YPC)
1 TD
5 Drops
3.6 Yards Average Depth of Target

Channing Goodwin:
18 Targets
7 Catches
112 Yards (16 YPC)
0 TD
4 Drops
13 Yards Average Depth of Target

Andrew Marsh:
6 Targets
5 Catches
110 Yards (22 YPC)
0 TD
0 Drops
13.7 Yards Average Depth of Target


This tells me two things: Semaj Morgan sucks and Channing Goodwin might actually be a decent WR if he could hang onto the damn football. Nine drops between these two- both of whom have been starters until the Wisconsin game when Andrew Marsh got the start over both. A 3.6 yard average depth of target and 5 drops is insanely pathetic on Semaj Morgan's part. 11.7 YPC is also pretty pedestrian as well.

McCulley is a startable scholarship B1G WR at this level. He's not an Ohio State 1st round freak- but he's more than good enough for this level. Andrew Marsh was a hot-shot high 4* top 100 overall player in the nation recruit out of Texas- and it shows why. He's shown more in one start than Semaj Morgan has in 3 years of playing time. McCulley and Marsh are basically the only WR's you have on the roster that are playable right now. And this is incredibly scary.

How in the fuck these coaches actually recruited Semaj Morgan out of high school in the Metro Detroit area but not Deion Burkes (Oklahoma), Nick Marsh (MSU), CJ Sadler (UNC), or Samson Gash (MSU)- is motherfucking beyond me. Beyond me. I know they tried recruiting Nick Marsh a little- but it wasn't balls to the wall sell your sell like they did for Bryce Underwood- and that was a GIANT fucking mistake because that kid is a future NFL draft pick WR. The other 3 guys- they didn't even recruit at all- but they recruited Semaj Morgan heavily- and that literally boggles my fucking mind. WR coach Ron Bellamy has to be fired in the off-season and replaced. He just flat out has to be. You cannot waste Bryce Underwood with more poor WR recruiting and development- have to go hire the best WR coach money can buy and spend in the portal on WR's like there is no limit.

Goodwin *might* still become a player- he is still only a RS Frosh and he's got decent size/speed, runs nice routes, and blocks his ass off- he just has to catch the god damn ball when it hits both hands. And he's not doing that- which is a major problem. If you can touch it- you can catch it. Period. No excuses. Otherwise you don't belong at this level- you belong in the MAC or D2/D3 ball.

this is also pretty crazy... to go from dead last to #57 and in the top half of FBS with a true freshman QB AND with all the drops from these WR's is pretty wild. shows just how god awful the QB play was last year.


https://twitter.com/isaiahhole/status/1974985860102979688

I think this game is huge not just in the B1G but nationally. 

Starting in the B1G:
Michigan has a loss but it was OOC so they are still undefeated in the league and if they win this they'll be heavy favorites all the way until the Buckeyes come to town Turkey-Day weekend.  They just might win that again but even if they don't, 8-1 probably gets them into the B1GCG.  With a loss here, they'd need no upsets of themselves and a big upset of Ohio State to get to the B1GCG. 

The Trojans already have a league loss (Illinois) and they still have to play Oregon in Autzen so I see this as an absolute must-win for USC's B1GCG hopes.

Nationally this game might make the biggest difference to Notre Dame.  A lot of people objected to the Irish being ranked at 0-2 and I'm certainly no ND fan but it made sense to me.  You can say that they lost to the only two ranked teams that they played and that is true but in their defense they weren't bad losses:

• They lost by 3 on the road at night to the current #2 team
• They lost by 1 at home to the current #5 team. 

The problem for ND is that they desperately need a quality win.  As it stands today, they ONLY ranked teams on their schedule are the ones that they started 0-2 against.  A USC win over Michigan would seriously help the Irish in the quality win department, assuming that the Irish beat the Trojans. 

yeah, definitely a sneaky huge game with major implication for a game with one team only ranked 15th vs a currently unranked team. 

this is also a huge game for Lincoln Riley. he's under immense pressure there with that $100 million contract and it's year 4 and he wasn't won anything there, went 7-6 last year and 8-5 the year before that, never been to the playoff and has had some truly great offenses but comically bad defenses that couldn't stop a JV high school team. And @Notre Dame, @Nebraska, and @Oregon are all going to be tricky games for him to win with that defense. If he drops this one at home to Michigan he's 4-2 on the season staring at another potential 5 loss season and in real danger of losing his job. They lose 5 games this year there's a chance he's fired and if he's not he'll be coaching for his job every game in 2026. 

I’ve been underwhelmed by Michigan’s pass rush when it comes to containing and pressuring slippery QBs like Maiava.  Michigan’s DBs need to stick to USC’s ball catchers like peanut butter to the roof of your mouth because Maiava can extend plays.  Quick TDs on coverage busts can negate Michigan’s run game.

what are you going on about? Michigan's pass rush has faced exactly one QB all season that was mobile in John Mateer. They only sacked Mateer once- should've had him sacked at least 5 times and had him dead to rights more times than I can count and he Houdini'd out of that shit like the magician that he is. Every other QB they've faced they've gotten on the ground multiple times a game for sacks or TFL's.

Maiava is a really good QB with more mobility than you'd think- but he's not a run threat and he is NOWHERE near the twitched up explosive athlete that John Mateer is. Not even in the same universe. 

This game for Michigan on defense will come down to how smart Wink Martindale will call his defense. If he can keep his fucking dick in his pants and not bring blitzes every god damn fucking snap- Michigan will be fine. Especially with Rod Moore back at free safety patrolling the skies. Rush 4 90% of the time, SIMULATE pressure, play zone coverage with the DB's mostly cover 3 and quarters- Michigan will win the game comfortably imo. If Wink goes back to thinking he's Dr. Blitz AKA Don Brown then USC will absolutely GASH Michigan in the pass game. They do not have the type of CB's that thrive playing man to man right now. Make USC drive the length of the field- don't give them any free big plays. 

he's not lying. that stadium will be half Michigan fans. still a little dumb of him to say out loud to the media.