#2 Ohio State (5-0, 8-0) at #13 Penn State (3-2, 6-2) Post Game

[medinabuckeye1]

this is a great podcast- College Football Nerds. Their computer model predicts Ohio State winning 31-19, and they both pick Ohio State to win, one co-host picks OSU 34-24 and the other OSU 31-17.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfrJLRiH2Jk

On this podcast they point out that we shouldn't have been so surprised by Michigan's success running the ball.  Penn State looked good but that was because most teams they had played have poor rushing offenses.  College Football Nerds uses a computer model in which the main input is % of average.  Let me try to explain that:

We typically look at average yards allowed per game and if we go deeper we look at average rushing yards and average passing yards allowed per game.  The problem with that is that it treats allowing 200 yards passing to Iowa as the exact equivalent to allowing 200 yards passing to Ohio State.  We all know that those are NOT equivalent.  

Their model goes by per-play numbers as a percentage of average.  Example:

• Ohio State (best in B1G) is averaging 10.5 yards per pass play.  
• Iowa (worst in B1G) is averaging 5.5 per pass play.  

In the College Football Nerds model if you play tOSU and allow 8.0 yards per pass play that is REALLY good because it is 76% of Ohio State's average.  Conversely, if you play Iowa and allow 8.0 yards per pass play that is REALLY bad because it is 145% of Iowa's average.  

Penn State's rushing defense BEFORE Michigan was allowing around 92% and after Michigan and Minnesota they are at 102%.  That is a VERY average rushing defense even if you ignore what Michigan did to them and it is below average if you include what Michigan did to them.  

I don't think that bodes well for Penn State.  After being held to 2.2 yards per carry against Iowa I think that the Buckeyes are going to want to establish the run and prove that they can do it.  Given PSU's average rushing defense, I don't think they can neutralize tOSU's rushing attack without bring extra defenders into the box.  That, I think, will leave PSU with two bad options:

• Stay back to minimize the tOSU passing threat and hope you don't get bowled over by tOSU's rushing attack, or
• Load the box to keep from getting bowled over and hope Stroud has a bad day.  

[FearlessF]

• Stay back to minimize the tOSU passing threat and hope you don't get bowled over by tOSU's rushing attack, or
• Load the box to keep from getting bowled over and hope Stroud has a bad day. 

I would NOT bank on Stroud having a bad day.  I'd stay back

[medinabuckeye1]

I would NOT bank on Stroud having a bad day.  I'd stay back

Oh I agree but against Michigan they allowed 7.6 yards per carry.

College Football Nerds pointed out that a big part of Penn State's problem was that they just had to defend too many plays against Michigan.

The two 60+ yard runs that broke the game open came on Michigan's 60-something plays in the game. Up until then Penn State's defense had been reasonably effective.

They had allowed a lot of yards but they had forced FG's on three of Michigan's four long drives so they had only allowed 16 points. Additionally, Penn State's defense had a pick-6 and that combined with two long drives by PSU's offense (FG, TD) made it 17-16 in favor of PSU early in the second half. Then the dam broke.

[FearlessF]

reasonably effective

and then the halftime adjustments

I agree that defenses get worn down, but after a halftime rest they should have been able to hold up better through the 3rd quarter IMO

[ELA]

BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK

#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 7-0) at #13 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-1, 6-1)

NOON - State College, PA - FOX

Penn State's "success" against Ohio State is a little overblown.  Yes, they had that 2016 comeback win to launch their Big Ten Championship run.  But that is their only series win since 2011, going 1-9 against Urban Meyer and Ryan Day.  But...this line seems a little high to me.  The Nittany Lions have struggled to get over the hump, but they have consistently played Ohio State better than anyone over the past six years.  Aside from that 2016 win, they lost by 1 in 2017 and 2018, 11 in 2019, and 9 in 2021.  The biggest loss in the past 6 years was by 13 in 2020, which was Penn State's worst team in that time span vs.  Ohio State's best.  There are no moral victories in Happy Valley, but just staying within 13 points of Ohio State 6 straight games, is actually an accomplishment.  In that same time period, Michigan only did it 3 times, Michigan State once.  So, Ohio State might have to play a game that is somewhat in doubt in the fourth quarter for the first time since their season opener against Notre Dame.  But can Penn State actually get over the hump?  It will be up to their back seven.  Against WR U, the pressure on the secondary is self explanatory, but I think this is on the linebackers.  The defensive line got (rightfully) roasted for getting bullied by the Michigan offensive line, but that was much more on the linebackers.  Michigan's game plan was to double Penn State's interior linemen, and trust their backs to beat linebackers one and one.  And they did, over and over.  Ohio State's offensive line isn't as good as Michigan's, but their running backs are pretty close.  If the linebackers don't make the Buckeyes pay for doing the same thing, this could get ugly.  If they do, that opens up the line to have more room to operate outside of those double teams.  Then if you start getting pressure like that, your safeties and linebackers can be more dedicated to slowing down that aerial attack.  I think much like all recent versions of this game, Penn State challenges the Buckeyes, but Ohio State's march to 11-0 moves on.

OHIO STATE 35, PENN STATE 24

[Cincydawg]

PSU looks good except for ...

[Cincydawg]

Keeps the crowd lively

[Brutus Buckeye]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uszQ-aeF-Jg

[Temp430]

Did anyone else think Ohio State looked beatable?

[Mdot21]

Did anyone else think Ohio State looked beatable?

It was a very close game vast majority of the way. 

OSU had some explosive plays on defense and offense late which helped them pull away. Probably can’t count on those defensive plays happening every week- but on offense- that’s what they are- explosive plays waiting to happen. 

[Honestbuckeye]

Did anyone else think Ohio State looked beatable?

Yes.  Every week almost. 

Michigan has also looked very beatable. 

I haven’t seen a team that looks unbeatable.  Have you?

I actually gained more optimism from that win than I had before.  It reminded me a lot of their loss in Ann Arbor last year.  In fact- same score at halftime. 

The difference being that they took control of the game on both sides of the ball when it mattered most, overcame a lot of their own boneheaded mistakes plus several extremely questionable calls by the officials, The only real large and hostile crowd they will see this whole season, and separated themselves by a wide margin when it really counted

Thats what the best teams do.  That doesn’t mean they always will but they showed me they have it in them. Last year they most certainly did not

[Mdot21]

Ohio State hasn't looked beatable to me every week. I'd say just in the ND and PSU games. But they pulled away late in both games and won both by double digits. They have the ability to make explosive plays- and that's what the college game is all about imo. 

I haven't really seen Michigan look beatable very much if at all. I think they've trailed maybe two times for very short periods of games all year. They were tied at the half with Indiana- but that 2nd half they flipped a switch and destroyed them. Michigan has been a 2nd half team- which I don't mind at all. DC Minter seems to make defensive adjustments every 2nd half and his defenses go into shutdown mode and feast.

But then again- their schedule hasn't been great with the exception of Penn State. They haven't really faced anyone that could beat them or stress them or get them out of their game and force them to play left handed- and they won't face that til they play Ohio State imo.

[Drew4UTk]

It's funny to me to hear the reasoning for tOSU to be regarded as they are.  The very same thing can be said for another team also regarded but considered lessor than tOSU.  

And stats be damned, UTs D isn't that bad.  Their run D is tight and their secondary works when it needs to work.  

I'm truly hoping for a tOSU and UT match up.... yall can't tell me that won't be an entertaining game.  The o/u would likely be 100pts opening... and by game time 110pts.  

UT has to get through UGA first... and its critical.. if they win they go to #1 over tOSU and UM, but if they lose? They'll drop a lot further than bama did when they lost to UT- and likely to 10 or 12.... thats the way the system works.  

[Mdot21]

It's funny to me to hear the reasoning for tOSU to be regarded as they are.  The very same thing can be said for another team also regarded but considered lessor than tOSU. 

And stats be damned, UTs D isn't that bad.  Their run D is tight and their secondary works when it needs to work. 

I'm truly hoping for a tOSU and UT match up.... yall can't tell me that won't be an entertaining game.  The o/u would likely be 100pts opening... and by game time 110pts. 

UT has to get through UGA first... and its critical.. if they win they go to #1 over tOSU and UM, but if they lose? They'll drop a lot further than bama did when they lost to UT- and likely to 10 or 12.... thats the way the system works. 

think it depends on how UT loses. If Georgia blows them out...they probably deserve a drop. But if it's a close 1 score game or OT game- UT probably only deserves to drop 2-3 spots max.