I don't get why everybody considers this a brilliant no-brainer move by Lanning.
Even though 4 seconds ran off the clock, there was a risk to automaticly giving Ohio St 5 extra yards on the play. If on the next play, Will Howard runs and takes a knee with 1 second left, calls time out and then Ohio St kicks the game winning FG, does it still look like a brilliant move by Lanning?
The way I look at it, Lanning took a calculated risk and it paid off, but he had no guaruntee it would pay off. In fact it could have easily back-fired on him.
In a way, I agree. This is what I was getting at with my question about why you would send ONLY one extra guy out there.
It obviously worked out but 12 vs 11 doesn't automatically guarantee that the Buckeyes can't complete a pass. Additionally, by running an extra guy out there you also give the Buckeyes an insurance policy against an INT because if anything bad (for the Buckeyes) happens on the play, the Buckeyes can simply take the five yard penalty thus negating the bad thing (int, for example).
In retrospect, the Buckeyes' response should have been either:
- Spike the ball, or
- Throw a reckless pass deep.
Spiking the ball:
When the play started it was 3rd and 25 at the Oregon 43 with 00:10 to go. From there it is a 58 yard FG. Spiking the ball shouldn't take more than 00:01 so you'd be at 3rd and 20 at the Oregon 38 with 00:09 to go. Oregon can't win that way. If you keep repeating that you get:
- 00:09 at the 38, 53 yard FG.
- 00:08 at the 33, 48 yard FG.
- 00:07 at the 28, 43 yard FG.
- 00:06 at the 23, 38 yard FG.
That math doesn't work for Oregon there because Ohio State gets close enough to just line up and kick the FG before they run out of time.
Throwing a reckless pass deep:
There are basically four possibilities here:
- Incomplete: Ok, take the penalty, line up and try again from five yards closer.
- Interception. Ok, take the penalty, line up and try again from five yards closer.
- Pass Interference: Now you get a bigger penalty and into FG range.
- Completion: You either score or get into FG range.
The first two are not bad for the Buckeyes and the second two almost certainly result in a tOSU win.