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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6
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ohio1317 · « **on:** October 04, 2021, 09:17:41 AM »

Teams with 1st Loss Week 5:
Maryland
Mississippi
Arkansas
Oregon
Notre Dame
Baylor
Boston College
Army
South Alabama

Teams with 1st Win Week 5:
Florida State
Ohio
Navy

Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
9: Conference champs of every conference except the MAC and PAC-12, plus BYU
-We dropped 3 spots this week as we can no longer have an undefeated in the PAC-12 and independents Notre Dame and Army lost.

Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 41.53% (54 of 130)
Week 2: 34.21% (26 of 76)
Week 3: 32% (16 of 50)
Week 4: 23.53% (8 of 34)
Week 5: 34.62% (9 of 26)

Week 5 Thoughts:
-I added the 1-loss team list this year. Since the start of the BCS, every team to make the BCS National Championship or the College Football Playoff has been a 0 or 1 loss team except 2007 LSU. Every non-AQ/Group of 5 team to make a BCS/NY6 Bowl has also had 0 or 1 loss except for 1 year with Boise State. All of this will not hold indefinitely (many BCS years would have had 2 loss teams in with 4 teams), but it is a good things to watch for with these lists.

-Cincinnati defeating Notre Dame likely ends the Irish hope at the CFP and does put the Bearcats in the conversation. They need help still (most 1-loss power 5 champs will beat them out and a 1-loss non-champ from the SEC likely would too), but their current betting odds are probably about as high as we have seen a team from outside the 5 power conferences in the CFP era (maybe Houston was higher once). They also are getting some help in results across the country.

-The PAC-12 lost its last undefeated in Oregon. The Ducks have not looked very good since their win over Ohio State. They still have that as a major selling point if they can steady things, but they cannot lose another and get to the CFP bowls. PAC-12 will probably be in if its champion ends with just a single loss, but very real risk of conference eating up its top teams again.

-It was a fairly good week for the Big Ten as far as the CFP. Undefeated teams Michigan and Iowa dominated in games they were small favorites/underdogs in. Meanwhile Ohio State looked far more like its old self.

-The SEC continues to look like Alabama and Georgia and everyone else. Anyone not wanting both of these in the CFP needs to really root for a loss somewhere for at least one before the SEC Championship Game. I'd be amiss if I didn't mention right here the only other undefeated team in the SEC is Kentucky. The Wildcats are off to a fantastic 5-0 start after beating Florida.

-On the Group of 5 side, the spot is obviously Cincinnati's to lose. South Alabama losing a close one was a negative for the Sun Belt, which can now probably only realistically get in with Coastal Carolina unless we get a huge upset in a remaining non-conference game. San Diego State is sliding up this list of potential teams. They are one of 2 undefeated teams in the Mountain West, have 2 wins over PAC-12 teams, and just entered the rankings.

Week 6 Thoughts:

We only have 1 game between undefeated teams this week.

Undefeated Penn State @ undefeated Iowa: Top 5 match-up in the Big Ten. Winner will be #3 in the country. Also big deal for relative strength of Big Ten West.

Undefeated Oklahoma vs. 1-loss Texas: The Red River Shootout has a small line this year. Oklahoma has looked beatable, but continues to win. If past history is guide, they will likely drop one somewhere and then keep going.

Undefeated Georgia @ Auburn: The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry. Keeping SEC with 1 in the CFP means rooting for Auburn here. Auburn needs to win this to have a chance in the SEC and for the CFP.

Boise State @ Undefeated BYU: BYU not a huge favorite here, but keep winning and a NY6 bowl awaits. An off chance at a CFP is still in the cards if a lot of things break right. It would be nice for the Mountain West to have this win too even if Boise State is likely out of the NY6 picture.

Winless UConn @ winless UMass: One of the northeast teams will have their 1st win.

Undefeated UTSA @ Western Kentucky: Western Kentucky favored in this one. UTSA is the last undefeated in Conference USA and probably conference's only hope at the NY6.

Undefeated Wyoming @ 1-loss Air Force: Air Force is the slight favorite. Wyoming will start to get more attention if they win.

Undefeated Michigan @ Nebraska: Nebraska was kind of forgotten after their week 0 loss to a bad Illinois team, but they have been trending up since then. They need this game to stay in the Big Ten West race and are only a 3 point underdog. Michigan meanwhile blasted Wisconsin last week with a worse point spread. Win this like that and Michigan will feel much more like old Michigan.

1-Loss Notre Dame @ 1-loss Virginia Tech: ACC really needs a few decent wins to help their playoff picture. Notre Dame definitely has to be perfect now for a n outside chance at the CFP. For a NY6, they can't afford too many either.

LSU at undefeated Kentucky: Coming off the Florida win, Kentucky is favored in this game a bit. A chance Kentucky starts 6-0 and one of 3 undefeateds in the SEC.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 4, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 17
Wake Forest
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Cincinnati
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Penn State
Southern Methodist
Brigham Young
San Diego State
Wyoming
Georgia
Kentucky
Alabama
UTSA
Coastal Carolina

1-Loss Teams: ACC:4, American: 1, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 3. SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 3, total: 25
North Carolina State
Boston College
Pittsburgh
Virginia Tech
Houston
Texas
Baylor
Texas Tech
Ohio State
Maryland
UTEP
Western Michigan
Nevada
Air Force
Oregon State
Oregon
Arizona
Auburn
Arkansas
Mississippi
Appalachian State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Army
Liberty
Notre Dame

Remaining Winless Teams: ACC: 0, American: 0, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, independents: 2, total: 4
UNLV
Arizona
Massachusetts
Connecticut

Cincydawg · « **Reply #1 on:** October 04, 2021, 09:23:42 AM »

Great analysis and data, thanks always.

ohio1317 · « **Reply #2 on:** October 04, 2021, 10:24:51 AM »

Thanks Cincydawg.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #3 on:** October 04, 2021, 07:46:01 PM »

UConn and UMass play on Saturday.

So at least one quarter of the winless teams will get a win.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #4 on:** October 04, 2021, 11:31:51 PM »

Only two remaining undefeated teams not yet ranked, they are UTSA which is #33 going by "others receiving votes" and Wyoming which doesn't even have a single vote so far.

UTSA is 5-0 but they aren't ranked because their wins aren't very impressive:

37-30 at Illinois (currently 2-4).
54-0 vs Lamar (FCS).
27-13 vs MTSU (currently 2-3).
31-28 at Memphis (currently 3-2).
24-17 vs UNLV (currently 0-5).

UTSA plays WKU this weekend as @ohio1317 pointed out above and WKU is only 1-3 but the three losses were reasonably close and at the hands of Army, Indiana, and Michigan State so they look decent. A win this weekend might get UTSA off this list.

Wyoming is 4-0 but they aren't ranked because their wins aren't very impressive either:

19-16 vs Montana St (FCS)
50-43 at NIU (3-2).
45-12 vs Ball State (2-3).
24-22 at UCONN (0-6).

Wyoming plays Air Force this weekend as @ohio1317 pointed out above and Air Force looks pretty good (4-1). My guess is that the Falcons will destroy the Cowboys and knock Wyoming off this list.

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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6

ohio1317

Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6

Cincydawg

Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6

ohio1317

Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6

Brutus Buckeye

Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6

medinabuckeye1

Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6