Two weeks ago it felt like reality had finally set in. The Buckeyes had seized control of the East Division, and Michigan State couldn't win every close game forever, and was about to begin a three game slide with Penn State and Ohio State to follow. But the Spartans bounced back and upset Penn State, while Ohio State, who had decimated all of the unranked teams on the schedule, were annihilated in Kinnick. So we are back to sort of where we have been more often than not since 2013, with the winner of MSU-OSU controlling their own destiny. Ohio State limps back home to the friendly confines of the Shoe, but in this series, that might not be the best thing. The Buckeyes have won six straight in East Lansing, their last loss coming in 1999; while Michigan State has won the last three played outside Spartan Stadium, two in a row in Columbus, plus the 2013 Big Ten Championship Game. One thing this series has frequently produced over the past six matchups, three wins by each, is defensive struggles. The winning team has failed to break 17 in 4 of those 6 matchups, including a 10-7 Michigan State win in 2011. J.T. Barrett had his coming out party against Michigan State in 2014, lighting the Spartans up deep over and over, which hasn't really been his game since. That might be a good thing, because unlike the last three incarnations of Dantonio's defense, this one excels guarding the deep ball. It's been the underneath stuff, particularly exploiting the tackling deficiencies that has proven most successful. Ohio State's secondary leaves much to be desired. It was thought the nation's best defensive line would help cover some of that up with an unrelenting pass rush. Instead the Buckeyes are only tied for 5th in the conference in sacks. For all the run game struggles, the Spartans line has done a good job keeping Lewerke upright, and when they haven't he has quickly developed a sense of when to bail. The playcalling, even in adverse weather, last week shows the level of confidence in the Michigan State run game. The offensive line is generating nothing, and when they do, L.J. Scott has repeatedly put the ball on the ground. For better or worse, the Spartans' three headed backfield is down to just Scott, with Gerald Holmes barely playing with an injury, and Madre London relegated to spot duty, not even registering a touch last week. If Scott avoids fumbles, he's the only one of the three that can make something of the nothing his line is providing. For Ohio State, Barrett needs to get back to being Barrett. Dantonio's plan is likely going to be to take away the backs and force Barrett to beat them, as has been the plan against Ohio State since Meyer arrived. The Spartan front seven is stout against the run, and for as bad as the back four are in tackling, the front seven has been that good. The problem is they lack the athleticism to get out in space. Even in the loss last week, Ohio State averaged 5.4 ypc. As well as Barrett had been playing, 4 picks seems tough to repeat.
OHIO STATE 34, MICHIGAN STATE 26
