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Topic: 11/16/21 CFP Rankings

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Cincydawg

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Re: 11/16/21 CFP Rankings
« Reply #14 on: November 17, 2021, 10:32:14 AM »
Logically, one would expect a 7-3 team ranked say 15th to move UP if they lose a close road game against #2.  I've seen it happen, but very rarely.

Usually, as noted, it starts with number of losses, any team with 4 isn't going to get considered, generally, at this point.  Unless they are in the SEC.


rolltidefan

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Re: 11/16/21 CFP Rankings
« Reply #15 on: November 17, 2021, 10:38:55 AM »
I'm not sure that I'd have tOSU over Oregon and Bama yet because they do not yet have any wins over teams ranked by the CFP.  They have a close loss to #3 and a bunch of strong wins over bad and mediocre teams.  Now if tOSU, Oregon, and Bama all win out then it would be time to reconsider. 
bama is either going to be out or #1, depending on if they win out and beat uga. if they don't do both of those, they're out without some major major chaos. if they do win out and beat uga, i think they'll just flip them 1/2.jmo

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 11/16/21 CFP Rankings
« Reply #16 on: November 17, 2021, 11:02:31 AM »
it's simple, the committee looks at number of losses

when Purdue added an additional loss, it didn't matter if it was vs a top 4 team, it was just another loss
Unfortunately there is too much of this.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 11/16/21 CFP Rankings
« Reply #17 on: November 17, 2021, 11:07:50 AM »
bama is either going to be out or #1, depending on if they win out and beat uga. if they don't do both of those, they're out without some major major chaos. if they do win out and beat uga, i think they'll just flip them 1/2.jmo
Most people seem to be assuming that Bama at 11-2 is a lock to be in and while I don't agree, I think you are going too far the other way in saying that they are a lock to be out at 11-2.  

IMHO, if Bama finishes 11-2 with a loss to UGA in the SECCG they will probably get in but I could imagine a scenario where they missed the cut.  They'd obviously be behind Georgia and I think they'd also pretty clearly be behind any potential 12-1 B1G Champion (tOSU, M, or MSU).  There is also a good chance that they'd be behind a 12-1 Oregon with a P12 Championship and a "signature" win over tOSU but that might depend on how well tOSU finishes.  

After that it gets questionable.  I'd put them in over a potential 13-0 Cincinnati but then I'd probably put more than half of the SEC in over Cincinnati because I'd rather see good teams than tall midgets.  A lot of people disagree.  It might be a close call compared to a 12-1 ACC or B12 Champion.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 11/16/21 CFP Rankings
« Reply #18 on: November 17, 2021, 11:26:38 AM »
it's simple, the committee looks at number of losses

when Purdue added an additional loss, it didn't matter if it was vs a top 4 team, it was just another loss
I thought the entire purpose of the committee was that we were going to have "top men" working on this... Not idiot polls that just rank them by number of losses...



Abba

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Re: 11/16/21 CFP Rankings
« Reply #19 on: November 17, 2021, 11:28:46 AM »
I thought the entire purpose of the committee was that we were going to have "top men" working on this... Not idiot polls that just rank them by number of losses...




I think the reason was margin of victory.  I remember in 2014, the Buckeyes won 31-24 against Minnesota, who was ranked #25.  Their ranking remained the same, as it was a competitive game.

Cincydawg

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Re: 11/16/21 CFP Rankings
« Reply #20 on: November 17, 2021, 11:37:19 AM »
I bet if we took a ranking poll around here we'd get about the same ranking.


utee94

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Re: 11/16/21 CFP Rankings
« Reply #21 on: November 17, 2021, 11:37:57 AM »
I bet if we took a ranking poll around here we'd get about the same ranking.



Yup.

FearlessF

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Re: 11/16/21 CFP Rankings
« Reply #22 on: November 17, 2021, 01:06:51 PM »
yup, number of losses is a tough data point to ignore or overcome

it may be easy to say Nebraska is the best 3-7 team in the country, but they're not going to be ranked in the top 40
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: 11/16/21 CFP Rankings
« Reply #23 on: November 17, 2021, 02:54:21 PM »
Humans rank the same way, with different weightings.  Your first cut is number of losses.  Then you look at each loss and each significant win and throw the dice.  One 4 loss team is ranked, 25th, nobody is in the AP or Coaches.  And these three polls are  pretty much the same, and much the same as a poll we conducted around here.

The only "different" way of doing it would be a theoretical odds poll, based on who would be favored over who, and there would be some syllogistic issues with that.


 

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