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For the first time since the Oregon loss I am now confident that Ohio State controls their own CFP destiny.  Winning out would mean beating the current #7 then the current #6, then probably the current #15 and clearly nobody behind the Buckeyes would jump them if they managed to accomplish that.  

I believe that the following teams control their own destiny:

• #1 Georgia, obviously
• #2 Bama:  If they win out they'll not only be in, they'll be #1
• #3 Oregon:  The Oklahoma loss was a HUGE boost to Oregon because they no longer have to worry about being behind the B12 Champion so long as they win out.  They would almost certainly be behind a 12-1 Michigan or Michigan State and possibly also a 12-1 Ohio State but it doesn't matter anymore because they'd still be in the top-4.  
• #4 Ohio State:  See above.  
• #7 Michigan State:  If they win out they'll obviously pass #4 Ohio State and they'll also leap-frog the Wolverines and Bearcats into the top-4.  

IMHO, that is it.  Everybody else needs help.  What do they need?

• #5 Cincinnati:  The Bearcats got help from Baylor but they still need more.  The path is still narrow but it is becoming more plausible.  
• #6 Michigan:  I know it is hard to root for your rival but the Wolverines REALLY need an Ohio State win this weekend.  With that they would take Michigan State's spot on the list of teams controlling their own destiny.  
• #8 Notre Dame:  I think Notre Dame needs everything that Cincinnati needs plus a Cincinnati loss so IMHO they are borderline hopeless.  
• #9 OkSU:  The Cowboys' best-case-scenario is 12-1 at B12 Champions with back-to-back wins over Oklahoma.  IMHO that would get them ahead of the Irish, the Bearcats, and at least two out of the three B1G teams ahead of them but that only gets them to #5.  They still need at least one more loss by somebody.  
• #10 Wake:  I think Wake needs everything that OkSU needs plus an OkSU loss and an OU loss.  
• #13 Oklahoma:  I think that the Sooners are in the same spot as OkSU.  

Everybody else, IMHO, needs an incredibly implausible series of unlikely upsets.  

For the first time since the Oregon loss I am now confident that Ohio State controls their own CFP destiny.  Winning out would mean beating the current #7 then the current #6, then probably the current #15 and clearly nobody behind the Buckeyes would jump them if they managed to accomplish that.

I disagree with the playoff rankings. Ohio State should jump Alabama and Oregon, or at least Alabama.
I would have
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
4. Alabama.
Georgia and Alabama will sort things out.  If Georgia wins Alabama should be out. By ranking Alabama #2, the Committee is saying if Georgia wins by something less than a blowout, Alabama is in the CFP.
Ohio State's schedule is challenging. #7 MSU, #6 Mich., and #15 Wisconsin(?) It is a murderer's row. Control over destiny is a bit shaky.
What if Ohio State loses once to MSU, and Alabama loses only to Georgia, both close games? Cincy is in???? 

Another scenario I wonder about if OSU wins out and goes to the CFP, then who goes to the Rose Bowl for the Big Ten?

MSU 10-2. Losses to OSU,  Purdue
Mich 10-2. Losses to OSU, MSU
Wisc 9-4. Losses to OSU, Mich, ND, PSU
Iowa 10-2 losses to Wisc, Purdue

You would have to think MSU would go based on h2h win over Mich,  but what if the CFP comittee ends up ranking Mich above MSU?  Would the Rose Bowl use that as justification to take Mich over MSU?

I am trying to imagine how the rankings work out if Mich St and Mich both win out.

MSU would win the Big Ten East tie-breaker and then win the CCG over probably  Wisconsin to finish as 12-1  and as Big Ten champs.

Mich would be 11-1, would not be Big Ten champs and would have a h2h loss to MSU.

That should be enough to put MSU ahead of Mich in the rankings,  but the CFP commitee can use weird logic sometimes to justify ranking 1 team over another that I don't always get. 

The committee has already said as is, UM is ahead of MSU.  So if they win out, then going into the CCG, I would imagine it would be the same.  But they have also consistently said they don't count conference championships until they happen.  So my guess is that if then MSU won the CCG, they would jump UM.  If they didn't, then they obviously wouldn't.

It would require some mental gymnastics to reward UM for not playing in a game that they didn't qualify for due to losing to MSU, but they have also pretty consistently not cared about that either.

I disagree with the playoff rankings. Ohio State should jump Alabama and Oregon, or at least Alabama.
I would have
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
4. Alabama.
Georgia and Alabama will sort things out.  If Georgia wins Alabama should be out. By ranking Alabama #2, the Committee is saying if Georgia wins by something less than a blowout, Alabama is in the CFP.
Ohio State's schedule is challenging. #7 MSU, #6 Mich., and #15 Wisconsin(?) It is a murderer's row. Control over destiny is a bit shaky.
What if Ohio State loses once to MSU, and Alabama loses only to Georgia, both close games? Cincy is in????

I'm not sure that I'd have tOSU over Oregon and Bama yet because they do not yet have any wins over teams ranked by the CFP.  They have a close loss to #3 and a bunch of strong wins over bad and mediocre teams.  Now if tOSU, Oregon, and Bama all win out then it would be time to reconsider.  

Another scenario I wonder about if OSU wins out and goes to the CFP, then who goes to the Rose Bowl for the Big Ten?

MSU 10-2. Losses to OSU,  Purdue
Mich 10-2. Losses to OSU, MSU
Wisc 9-4. Losses to OSU, Mich, ND, PSU
Iowa 10-2 losses to Wisc, Purdue

You would have to think MSU would go based on h2h win over Mich,  but what if the CFP comittee ends up ranking Mich above MSU?  Would the Rose Bowl use that as justification to take Mich over MSU?

In addition to the stated assumption that tOSU wins out, you are also assuming that:

• MSU beats PSU
• M beats UMD
• UW beats UNL
• UW beats MN
• IA beats IL
• IA beats UNL

None of those are guaranteed and really only M over UMD would even be a large favorite.  Upsets in #1 and either #5 or #6 would pretty clearly knock MSU and IA out of the discussion and leave it simply between UW and M. 

With all of your stated and unstated assumptions I honestly think it would likely come down to how close MSU, M, and UW's losses to tOSU were.  The Buckeyes would be a top-4 and probably a top-2 team so if one of those three REALLY pushed them while the other two got blown off the field that just might be the difference. 

Lets say that Michigan lost a heartbreaker to the Buckeyes in the final seconds or OT.  They'd be 10-2 with two VERY close losses to two highly ranked teams.  Meanwhile MSU would be 10-2 with a blowout to tOSU and a two-score loss to (currently) unranked PU.  I'd rank Michigan ahead of MSU in that scenario and I think the committee would too. 

I am trying to imagine how the rankings work out if Mich St and Mich both win out.

MSU would win the Big Ten East tie-breaker and then win the CCG over probably  Wisconsin to finish as 12-1  and as Big Ten champs.

Mich would be 11-1, would not be Big Ten champs and would have a h2h loss to MSU.

That should be enough to put MSU ahead of Mich in the rankings,  but the CFP commitee can use weird logic sometimes to justify ranking 1 team over another that I don't always get. 

I think the conference championship would get MSU the nod over UM. The committee has shown that they assign some weight to a conference championship, and I think that would overcome the "worse loss" metric. 

In general I agree with your post and not just in this situation but generally.  Why does a team ranked around ~19 drop when they lose to a team ranked around ~4 in any poll.  It should be expected so they should stand pat or even possibly move up if it is a close loss. 

That said, to play devil's advocate, maybe it was because Purdue was never in the game.  In the past the committee has talked about what they call "game control" and the first 20 minutes of the PU/tOSU game were just a disaster for Purdue.  I don't expect ~19 to beat ~4 but I do expect them to present something of a challenge and in those first 20 minutes at least, Purdue looked more like some early-season body-bag opponent than a legitimate challenge. 

FWIW:
I don't think that tOSU is as good nor Purdue as bad as it appeared in the first 20 minutes of the game but I also don't think that tOSU is as bad nor Purdue as good as it appeared for the last 40 minutes of the game. 

That's fair. And it was a 28-point loss, not what you'd call close. 

I kinda feel like the committee made their own bed with that one, though. They knew the schedule. They knew Purdue hasn't won in Columbus since before the Model-T was introduced. They should have known a blowout loss was a strong possibility. It would have been smarter to sneak Purdue barely into the rankings at say 23-24th instead of putting them all the way up at 19th and then having to drop them out completely the very next week.