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Topic: #11 Michigan (1-0) vs. #17 Florida (0-1) Post Game

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Mdot21

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #98 on: August 31, 2017, 05:24:32 PM »
Before the suspensions, I would have put $100 on Florida, and I think that I have made a grand total of 2 money sports bets in my life previously.

I think you are drastically underestimating the impact of losing 14 starters.  Yeah yeah....the brand new talent......blah blah blah.

A) You are assuming that the Michigan talent was worlds ahead of Florida.  It's better, but it's not THAT much better.

B) Both teams are going into an unknown environment.  When going to a neutral site, I'll take the more experienced team.

C) Michigan was good last year, no doubt, but their success was a bit of a product of their schedule.  They played exactly 5 games away from Michigan Stadium and lost three of them.  The two they won (@ Rutgers and @ MSU) had a combined record of 5-19 (really only 4-18 since one of MSU's wins was against Rutgers....).

Again, this was before the latest Florida suspensions and before they named the RS FS starting QB.  The first bout of suspensions was mostly freshmen.  It would have hurt depth, but it wasn't going to have a huge affect on the outcome of the game.  Now that more starters are suspended and the threat of future suspensions are coming, I agree that the team psyche could be shot and I no longer think that Florida has the edge it had.

So I'll stand by the original statement.  I thought Florida was going to roll Michigan.  Now?  Who knows, but I still believe it wont be a blowout.  We'll find out in a couple of days.
You've only made 2 sports bets ever in your life, and before the suspension you would've put $100 on toss-up game on a team that was a 3.5 point dog? Good thing you don't bet. There were/are far, far, far better CFB bets out there week 1 than this game.

Michigan "lost" 14 starters, but more than a few of those guys listed as starters were barely starters, and Michigan will be better off with them out of the program to be frank. RB Deveon Smith and DT Matt Godin immediately jump to mind. The guys replacing them- will be infinitely better. Obviously losing actual NFL talent level guys like Peppers, Lewis, Wormley, Charlton, Butt, Chesson, Darboh- that is always going to hurt like hell. But a good chunk of those "starters" they "lost" were pretty damn mediocre to put it bluntly. 2017 Chris Evans and Karran Higdon will be light years better than 2016 Deveon Smith. That is just a fact. And a lot of guys they have coming back got plenty of playing time on that defense last year- guys like Winovich, Gary, Hurst, Mone (when he was healthy), Bush, and Kinnel. Losing all those CB's are going to BLOW chunks- but they have a lot of young talent there and Florida doesn't have the QB/WR passing game to really exploit that youth. Florida is extremely young there themselves. It's a wash. Just because of the way the schedule sets up they'll have 6-7 games to learn on the fly before they are seriously tested.

A) Forget talent. I never once mentioned talent. I've been mentioning coaching. Why? Florida is at a pretty big coaching disadvantage in this ball game. Jim McElwain v. Jim Harbaugh is as big of a head coaching mismatch as there. The even greater mismatch is Don Brown v. Doug Nussmeier. Nussmeier is terrible at his job and he's going to be breaking in a freshman QB and is without like 80% of UF's offensive production last year in RB Jordan Scarlett and WR Antonio Calloway.

B) Experience is overrated. Florida was a bad offense last year. They'll be a bad offense this year. Experience isn't going to change that. They were light on offensive talent before the suspensions and they were even lighter on offensive coaching. You know what's better than experience? Talent that is being coached and developed by great coaches. Not sure there is a better maximizer of talent than Harbaugh. He gets every last ounce out of a player. He'll take cast-offs and turn them into real life football players. Seen him do it time and time again. Haven't seen McElwain ever do that once.

C) Forget the fricken bowl game which- which oh yeah by the way- they lost by 1 point. Have my doubts a lot of those guys even wanted to really be there. Not after the mantra was B1GCCG and playoffs or bust. We certainly know Jabrill Peppers didn't want to be there. He sat out when he could've easily played. They lost two conference games on the road by a combined total of 4 points AFTER their QB got his shoulder broken in half. You do realize that Wilton Speight finished that Iowa game- a night game in which they lost by ONE point on a last second FG- with a broken collarbone, right? And he played the Ohio State game with...yup...you guessed it- a broken collarbone. And he was horrific in both of those conference road games and honestly was the primary reason they lost games that they probably should've won by a total of 4 points. Won't get into the bad spot. If Speight doesn't have a broken collarbone- they win both of those games and are in the B1GCCG and playoffs.

You're right, we'll find out in a couple of days.

Cincydawg

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #99 on: August 31, 2017, 05:40:49 PM »
I usually don't get worked up when an opposing fan thinks his team will win.  I sort of expect that.  Or if some other fan thinks X will win and I think Y will win.  It happens, and I'm wrong about as often as right, at best.

I don't really know that much about either team, so I have a rather useless opinion which is mundane on this game.  I will find it interesting to watch if it's on TV.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #100 on: August 31, 2017, 11:42:03 PM »
Wow, mdot, I wonder why they're even bothering to play the game at all.  Right?!?

Florida's 70-man talent has improved the last couple of years.
The RS FR QB is starting for a reason.
The WR corps aren't new, the top 5 guys after Callaway have plenty of experience.

Now for some legit reasons Florida may lose, besides the suspensions:
The LB corps is razor thin, with only 3 healthy, legit guys.  
Multiple true FR DBs will play a lot, which should be able to be exploited.
Our big (now) backup RB has fumblitis, which could come into play. (#24)

2 big unknowns:
The OL has gotten a lot of love in practice, but that's practice.  They stunk at times last year, and may still.
The playcalling - either it will be different and better or the same and awful.  One or the other, we'll have to wait and see.

Michigan should win.  It would make sense if they won.  Florida could lose, get their players back, and have a great year (or not).  If Michigan loses to a depleted Gator squad, it could be a long year.  Again, I'm glad they play the games so we can see how it all unfolds.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Mdot21

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #101 on: September 01, 2017, 12:20:52 PM »
Wow, mdot, I wonder why they're even bothering to play the game at all.  Right?!?

Florida's 70-man talent has improved the last couple of years.
The RS FR QB is starting for a reason.
The WR corps aren't new, the top 5 guys after Callaway have plenty of experience.

Now for some legit reasons Florida may lose, besides the suspensions:
The LB corps is razor thin, with only 3 healthy, legit guys.  
Multiple true FR DBs will play a lot, which should be able to be exploited.
Our big (now) backup RB has fumblitis, which could come into play. (#24)

2 big unknowns:
The OL has gotten a lot of love in practice, but that's practice.  They stunk at times last year, and may still.
The playcalling - either it will be different and better or the same and awful.  One or the other, we'll have to wait and see.

Michigan should win.  It would make sense if they won.  Florida could lose, get their players back, and have a great year (or not).  If Michigan loses to a depleted Gator squad, it could be a long year.  Again, I'm glad they play the games so we can see how it all unfolds.
I am 100% certain there is a ton of raw talent on the Florida roster. There is a shit load of talent there. C'mon. It's Florida. There always is.
Not talking raw talent really. More or less talking about the development of said talent- aka the coaching.
Not sold on Jim McElwain. Never have been. What was his claim to fame? Going 10-3 at Colorado State in year 3? OC'ing a vanilla offense at Alabama where literally 80% of the roster is blue-chip 5* and 4* recruits? Besides- we all know that Saban is the one pulling all the strings there. Being a co-ordinator for Saban is basically like being a Hallway monitor. Even less sold on him after his stint at Florida. And last but not least- Doug Nussmeier. Saw with my own two eyes how horrible he really is when he was at Michigan for a single year. You want an offense ranked in the 100's? Hire Doug Nussmeier as your OC. That's a guarantee.

Mdot21

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #102 on: September 01, 2017, 01:08:47 PM »
sounds like frosh Tarik Black locked up a starting WR role. Not that surprised considering the way he looked in the spring. Very polished, smooth 6'4 ish with great catch radius. Showed a real knack of going up and snatching the ball and he's a more advanced route runner than the frosh WR's. Also sounds like Frosh WR Donovan Peoples-Jones will be the return man. Very excited if this is true. 6'2+, 200+ lbs- explosive athlete- just a freak of nature. Get him the ball and let him go. He has the ability to break some big returns this year.

Nolan Ulizio has won the battle at RT. Insider "word" is he's been a devastating run blocker all camp and they've tried him at both tackle spots and he's looked great. That right side could really punish people in the run game- especially with the noise that Mike Onwenu has been making. Onwenu is a devastating run blocker and he tips the scales at 6'3+ and 350+. Both of them have had high remarks from the "insiders" all fall about their run blocking- it's the pass blocking where they've shown some inconsistencies. Florida should be able to really exploit that. My hope is that Michigan runs the ball early and often and they do a lot of quick passes to slow that Florida pass rush down.

Also- sounds like Tyrone Wheatley Jr has won the starting TE role. Best blocking TE on the team and oh yeah, he's 6'7ish and 270+. And oh yeah, word is he's also the fastest TE on the team. Genetics. Really think he's a potential break-out star this year. Call it a gut feeling. A Harbaugh offense develops TE's. He's a lot faster than any 6'7, 270 pound human being has any business being.

MrNubbz

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #103 on: September 01, 2017, 04:58:41 PM »
Who is M's other starting WR?Jones?Collins?
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Mdot21

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #104 on: September 01, 2017, 05:22:30 PM »
Who is M's other starting WR?Jones?Collins?
sounds like it's Dylan Crawford as the other outside WR and Grant Perry and McDoom splitting time in the slot.
Crawford was the #126 player in the nation overall, #20 WR, and #18 player in the state of California in the 247Composite for the 2016 class. Listed at 6'2, 195, played on special teams and in a few games at WR last year as a true frosh hauling in 4 passes for 48 yards and 1 TD.
Good size, good speed. Tested very well at the nike opening event- had the 5th best SPARQ rating there- checked in at 6'1.5", 183 lbs, ran a 4.45 laser-timed 40, a 4.01 shuttle, with a 37.5" vertical. Knock on him coming out of high school was he was a little raw, more pure athlete than refined WR.

rolltidefan

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #105 on: September 01, 2017, 05:39:26 PM »
I am 100% certain there is a ton of raw talent on the Florida roster. There is a shit load of talent there. C'mon. It's Florida. There always is.
Not talking raw talent really. More or less talking about the development of said talent- aka the coaching.
Not sold on Jim McElwain. Never have been. What was his claim to fame? Going 10-3 at Colorado State in year 3? OC'ing a vanilla offense at Alabama where literally 80% of the roster is blue-chip 5* and 4* recruits? Besides- we all know that Saban is the one pulling all the strings there. Being a co-ordinator for Saban is basically like being a Hallway monitor. Even less sold on him after his stint at Florida. And last but not least- Doug Nussmeier. Saw with my own two eyes how horrible he really is when he was at Michigan for a single year. You want an offense ranked in the 100's? Hire Doug Nussmeier as your OC. That's a guarantee.
while you might be able to disparage his hc abilities (though i'd disagree), his oc job done at bama was by far the best one we've had under saban. call it vanilla, fine. but it was efficient and deadly. and creative within itself.
nuss, i won't disagree much, though his offenses at bama weren't in the 100's. far from it. but he's also not one i'd hope to be back at bama anytime soon, so... (it'd be a tough call on who i'd want less between him or kiff, though)
you seem to have quite the case of homeritis. i'm not sure i'd rank harbaugh outright better than mcelwain, and certainly not any kind of considerable measure better, aside from recruiting, which is mcelwains biggest flaw.
having said that, you are correct in that um looks focused and has a determination that the gators seem to be severely lacking at the moment.  um should win fairly convincingly, all things considered.

Mdot21

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #106 on: September 01, 2017, 05:49:02 PM »
while you might be able to disparage his hc abilities (though i'd disagree), his oc job done at bama was by far the best one we've had under saban. call it vanilla, fine. but it was efficient and deadly. and creative within itself.
nuss, i won't disagree much, though his offenses at bama weren't in the 100's. far from it. but he's also not one i'd hope to be back at bama anytime soon, so... (it'd be a tough call on who i'd want less between him or kiff, though)
you seem to have quite the case of homeritis. i'm not sure i'd rank harbaugh outright better than mcelwain, and certainly not any kind of considerable measure better, aside from recruiting, which is mcelwains biggest flaw.
having said that, you are correct in that um looks focused and has a determination that the gators seem to be severely lacking at the moment.  um should win fairly convincingly, all things considered.
Please. Anybody could OC those Alabama offenses with that kind of NFL talent they had at OL and RB. Not to mention oh um....Julio Jones and Amari Cooper. I sat through a year of Doug Nussmeier. He is horrible. Like Mike DeBord levels bad. I think DeBord is actually better.

Not sure you'd rank Harbaugh outright better than McElwain? Are you serious right now? Little tiny scholarship-less USD to back to back 11-1 years. The worst program in the P5- Stanford from 1-11 to 12-1 and a perennial powerhouse. San Fransisco 49ers from a lost decade of mediocrity in the NFL and no playoff appearances from 6-10 to 13-3, 11-4-1, 12-4 - 3 straight NFC chip games and a Super Bowl appearance. Michigan from 5-7 to 10-3 with a cast-off QB that wasn't good enough for friggin' Iowa's offense. Any of that ringing any bells?

Yeah, has nothing to do with homerism. One guy is about as good as it gets in the coaching ranks and if he was on the NFL coaching market he'd be the hottest commodity in years. The other guy? He'll be fired from Florida within a year or two and he'll never get a head coaching job again unless it's at like a lower tier MAC school or FCS school.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2017, 05:51:02 PM by Mdot21 »

FearlessF

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #107 on: September 01, 2017, 07:40:27 PM »
You've only made 2 sports bets ever in your life, and before the suspension you would've put $100 on toss-up game on a team that was a 3.5 point dog? Good thing you don't bet. There were/are far, far, far better CFB bets out there week 1 than this game.


really?  what games are better bets?  I took Michigan to cover the 3.5
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #108 on: September 01, 2017, 07:49:58 PM »
Please. Anybody could OC those Alabama offenses with that kind of NFL talent they had at OL and RB. Not to mention oh um....Julio Jones and Amari Cooper. I sat through a year of Doug Nussmeier. He is horrible. Like Mike DeBord levels bad. I think DeBord is actually better.

Not sure you'd rank Harbaugh outright better than McElwain? Are you serious right now? Little tiny scholarship-less USD to back to back 11-1 years. The worst program in the P5- Stanford from 1-11 to 12-1 and a perennial powerhouse. San Fransisco 49ers from a lost decade of mediocrity in the NFL and no playoff appearances from 6-10 to 13-3, 11-4-1, 12-4 - 3 straight NFC chip games and a Super Bowl appearance. Michigan from 5-7 to 10-3 with a cast-off QB that wasn't good enough for friggin' Iowa's offense. Any of that ringing any bells?

Yeah, has nothing to do with homerism. One guy is about as good as it gets in the coaching ranks and if he was on the NFL coaching market he'd be the hottest commodity in years. The other guy? He'll be fired from Florida within a year or two and he'll never get a head coaching job again unless it's at like a lower tier MAC school or FCS school.
I don't think your initial post on this was homerish, but this one certainly is.  You can go back to his coaching record from 10 years ago if you want, but I don't see the relevance.
Harbaugh
20-6 at UM, 13-4 in the B10.  Two 3rd-place finishes in a tough division
McElwain
19-8 at UF, 13-3 in the SEC.  Two division championships in a weak division 
*should be 20-8, but UF missed a cupcake game due to hurricane rescheduling
Harbaugh's resume is better overall, but they're nearly even at their current stops.  JH has a little better overall record in a tougher division, but JM won his division twice.  JH is playing OSU and PSU every year, but JM is playing FSU and Bama both years.
To suggest one is great and one sucks....is silly.
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FearlessF

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #109 on: September 01, 2017, 08:24:00 PM »
just think what Chip Kelly could accomplish at UF
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #110 on: September 01, 2017, 08:41:01 PM »
What coach would've been favored vs Bama the last 2 years in Atlanta?  Clemson wasn't favored in the NCG either of the past 2 years.  Urban Meyer and OSU wouldnt have been favored, not Harbaugh at UM, not anyone, anywhere.

So aside from not winning the NC and the SECCG, McElwain has reached the next-highest goal of any Florida HC:  win the East.  

I don't see the problem.  Would it be cool if we scored more?  Sure.  Would it be better if Bama didn't blow us out?  Yup.  But whattaya gonna do?  Can't go back in time.  13-3 in the SEC over 2 years is good enough.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

SuperMario

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Re: #11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida Game Week
« Reply #111 on: September 01, 2017, 09:37:24 PM »
Maybe I'm a giant homer, but predicting Florida would have rolled Michigan is pretty laughable, especially saying that and now hiding behind suspensions. It's a no lose situation to make that statement.


 

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