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Topic: #11 Indiana (1-0, 4-0) at Iowa (1-0, 3-1) Game Week

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FearlessF

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Re: #11 Indiana (1-0, 4-0) at Iowa (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
« Reply #28 on: September 25, 2025, 01:00:00 PM »
Quote from: ManHawk on September 25, 2025, 12:35:51 PM

End result:  Iowa will probably finish 8-4 again,  which means they will have to upset somebody.
Always count on an upset in Lincoln.   By 3 points 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: #11 Indiana (1-0, 4-0) at Iowa (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
« Reply #29 on: September 25, 2025, 01:33:25 PM »
Quote from: iahawk15 on September 25, 2025, 12:48:43 PM
The tl;dr = copy pasta from every other year: Somewhere between 9-3 and 4-8, but usually 7-8 wins.

Looks more like a 6-7 win landing spot this year, with the lower end of the total range looking more probable than the upper end.
It isn't just an every year thing.  I am referring to this schedule and specifically these six games:
  • VS Indiana
  • VS Penn State
  • VS Oregon
  • AT USC
  • AT Nebraska
  • AT Wisconsin

If you flipped the H/A I'd be very confident that Iowa would go 3-3 because I don't think they'd have much of a chance in Bloomington, Happy Valley, or Eugene and I would expect them to win home games against USC, UNL, and UW.  However, with the H/A as it is, I see these as six games that could all realistically go either way.  There is a lot of upside potential because 6-0 isn't a ridiculous pipe dream but there is a lot of downside risk because 0-6 isn't an unrealistic nightmare.  
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iahawk15

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Re: #11 Indiana (1-0, 4-0) at Iowa (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
« Reply #30 on: September 25, 2025, 03:22:34 PM »
Except it largely is an every year thing.

There's three basic components a typical Iowa Football Season:

B1G West + Iowa State = Little-to-no HFA.

Solid teams = HFA, with the further they travel, the less likely they win.

Elite teams = A loss, occasionally pulling one out at home.

So in my estimation, HFA advantage comes into play...


  • VS Indiana - Somewhat. If they're as good as advertised, not very much.
  • VS Penn State - Little-to-none
  • VS Oregon - Little-to-none
  • AT USC - A LOT! Ferentz is 0'fer West of Lincoln in the regular season.
  • AT Nebraska - Little-to-none
  • AT Wisconsin - Little-to-none


Ultimately, how good they are (I don't think all that good) will determine the outcomes of Indiana, Nebraska, and Wisconsin; not where the game is played.

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FearlessF

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Re: #11 Indiana (1-0, 4-0) at Iowa (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
« Reply #31 on: September 25, 2025, 08:01:27 PM »


Huskers 3-4 in Iowa City ///  0 fer 6 in Lincoln
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ManHawk

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Re: #11 Indiana (1-0, 4-0) at Iowa (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
« Reply #32 on: September 26, 2025, 09:07:14 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 23, 2025, 12:11:05 PM
As I see it, this game is HUMONGOUS for the Hoosiers.  Here are their eight remaining games sorted by my estimate of degree of difficulty from toughest to easiest:

  • At #6 Oregon (I have this first because it is a West Coast road trip)
  • At #3 Penn State
  • At Iowa
  • At Maryland
  • vs Michigan State
  • vs Wisconsin
  • at Purdue
  • vs UCLA
As a practical matter I believe that Indiana has no chance at the playoffs at 9-3.  Bama missed the playoffs at 9-3 last year, I don't think the Hoosiers are getting in with three losses.  For that matter, I'm not positive that they'd get in at 10-2.  Miami missed last year at 10-2 but their losses weren't very good.  The Hoosiers *MIGHT* get in at 10-2 if Oregon and Penn State both finished very highly ranked. 

If the Hoosiers lose in Iowa City then they can't realistically make the playoffs without a road winning in either Autzen or Happy Valley.

Yes if Indiana beats Iowa as expected it sets up an intesting round robin series between Indiana, Oregon and Penn St. 

This is so much better than last year when none of those 3 played each other in the regular season.  Although Oregon and Indiana dont need to play Ohio St this year,  so its not perfect this year either.
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