| It's been 11 months since these teams met, although in terms of football time, it seems like it has to have been a lot longer. The Hoosiers went into East Lansing and won 24-0, although the game wasn't even that "close". It was 24-0 midway through the 2nd quarter; and Indiana outgained the Spartans by 240 yards, were +2 in turnover margin, more than doubled up Michigan State in first downs, and held the ball for 40 minutes. That put Indiana at 4-0, ranked #10, and left the Spartans reeling at 1-3. Now Michigan State is 6-0, ranked in the top 10, while Indiana is 2-3, and with Ohio State up next, before road games at Maryland and Michigan, this might be the Hoosiers best shot to avoid an 0-6 start in conference play. Quarterback Michael Penix entered the season with a history of injuries, but when healthy, had never left any doubts. We voted him here as the preseason #1 quarterback in the conference. So what has gone wrong? You have to wonder if the injuries have finally caught up to him. His completion percentage is down marginally, but his yards per attempt is way down. Almost 2 yards per attempt, and over 3 yards per completion. Last year, in 220 attempts he threw 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions; this year, in 162, it's 4 and 7 respectively. That's a drop in Attempts per Touchdown from 15.7 to 40.5, corresponding with a rise in Attempts per Interception from 55.0 to 23.1. The rise in interceptions isn't the only glaring rise in negative plays, as he's getting sacked more often as well. So while it's unclear if he is going to play this week, signs point to no, it's not even a certainty that whatever version we've seen of him this year is necessarily their best option. Granted they had the lowest sack rate in the Big Ten a year ago, #9 nationally, so it was natural for that to drop a bit. Looking a bit more into that offensive line, while they aren't as good as last year, they do seem to vary greatly if they can stay ahead of the sticks. Their sack rate on standard down and distance is still #21 in the nation, but #60 in passing situations. Their line yards in standard downs, so when rushing on standard downs, is #93; but in short yardage power success rate, #25. For the Michigan State defense, it's a simple formula. You let Indiana stay in front of the sticks, they are tough to get off the field. They've struggled to do that though, which is why they've only converted 28.1% of their third downs in Big Ten play, third worst. In fairness, they've already played three top 9 SP+ defenses in Iowa (#4), Cincinnati (#9), and Penn State (#6). So getting to face Michigan State (#18) is actually a break. Problem for Michigan State with that third down stat is at 27.3%, they are one of the two that's worse. The offense has been far too dependent on big plays. 9 of their past 13 touchdowns have been on plays of 30 yards or more. That includes their four touchdowns in last week's win at Rutgers coming from 63, 63, 65, and 94. With 2019 or 2020 Michael Penix, the Hoosiers could make this a game. With either Jack Tuttle or 2021 Michael Penix, I'm not sure a bad running game can get enough going. |
