#3 Ohio State (1-0) vs. #1 Texas (0-1) Post Game

[betarhoalphadelta]

And nobody is expecting to consistently beat those two teams.  But Texas is 0 for 4.  That's the opposite.

Methinks you're extrapolating too much from a sample size too small. 

[SuperMario]

do you disagree?

yes, been pounding Budweisers  on the golf course since 10am

lol. Contrarian but honest and a reasonable contrarian. We all need those in life. 

[utee94]

ya now that you correct me i remember it so ty. i think the overall point is the same though relative to his inexperience.
he may not be an all timer but sark appears to be a good coach capable of winning big imo.

Agree, Arch's experience in prior games against teams like Colorado State and Mississippi State did not do much to prepare him for this one.  What was strange though, was that even without pressure and with open receivers downfield several times, his footwork and his arm mechanics looked completely wrecked.  That is absolutely NOT how he looked last year or throughout the spring and summer drills.  His mechanics were always quite good.  This is what makes me speculate he might be injured.

As far as Sarkisian goes, well, I've seen him coach several big games against several top teams over the past 2+ seasons, and it's becoming pretty clear to me, what he is.  He's a good coach.  He's not a great coach.  And I think he's about reached his ceiling.  He is what he is.  He'll challenge for the SEC in some years, he'll make the CFP perhaps most years, and I don't think he'll ever win it.  

Just my opinion of course.

[MrNubbz]

Methinks you're extrapolating too much from a sample size too small.

You been watching the Mrs. skin care commericials?

[utee94]

Methinks you're extrapolating too much from a sample size too small.

Maybe so.  I just see the same patterns in every game against an elite team, and the same losses.

ETA: I realize these are first-world problems and Texas fans aren't going to get any sympathy.  Just talking about my own personal observations and feelings on these topics.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Maybe so.  I just see the same patterns in every game against an elite team, and the same losses.

ETA: I realize these are first-world problems and Texas fans aren't going to get any sympathy.  Just talking about my own personal observations and feelings on these topics.

Yes, and also discounting the 6 wins over then-ranked teams last year.

And while two of those losses were two-score games, Texas took Georgia to OT in the CCG last year and had the ball with the opportunity to tie OSU at the end of the game on Saturday--a game where they twice took chances deep in OSU territory to go on 4th down instead of settling for a FG or it might have been an even closer final score... 

[medinabuckeye1]

Yes, and also discounting the 6 wins over then-ranked teams last year.

And while two of those losses were two-score games, Texas took Georgia to OT in the CCG last year and had the ball with the opportunity to tie OSU at the end of the game on Saturday--a game where they twice took chances deep in OSU territory to go on 4th down instead of settling for a FG or it might have been an even closer final score...

Ohio State had a long period of having major RZ problems on both sides of the ball and the Buckeyes are now in the midst (I hope it continues) of a period of being extraordinarily good in the RZ.  

Aside on stats:
I hate that THE stat they use is % of scoring.  IMHO, the relevant stat is Points Per RZ Trip because would you rather be:

• 100% in 4 RZ trips with four FG's for 12 points, or
• 50% in 4 RZ trips with 2 TD's for 14 points?  

In any case, Ohio State has been phenomenal here of late.  There was a meme after the season last year that went around Buckeye Boards that showed a bunch (I think it was six) opponent 'and-goal' situations against Oregon, PSU, Michigan, Texas, etc and at the bottom said "these _ (6?) situations led to 7 points FOR Ohio State."  That is UNREAL.  

That RZ issue was the difference in both of these Texas/Ohio State games.  Texas ran MUCH better overall but they got inside the 10 twice and came away with zero points.  Ohio State didn't run well AT ALL overall but when they got in close, they closed the deal. 

[utee94]

Yes, and also discounting the 6 wins over then-ranked teams last year.

And while two of those losses were two-score games, Texas took Georgia to OT in the CCG last year and had the ball with the opportunity to tie OSU at the end of the game on Saturday--a game where they twice took chances deep in OSU territory to go on 4th down instead of settling for a FG or it might have been an even closer final score...

Again I'm not saying Texas can't be good, and beat good teams, and finish in the Top 10. 

[utee94]

That RZ issue was the difference in both of these Texas/Ohio State games.  Texas ran MUCH better overall but they got inside the 10 twice and came away with zero points.  Ohio State didn't run well AT ALL overall but when they got in close, they closed the deal.

Right.  Not elite.  Not good enough.  And no reason to think anything will be different going forward.  This is what Sarkisian does, this is who he is.

[utee94]

And I'll add, I'm not saying Texas should fire Sarkisian.  He's about 1000x better than the previous two coaches plus the final 3 years under Mack Brown.  I don't even know who Texas could realistically hire that would be better.

I just think Sark has hit his ceiling. Without some generational talent like Vince Young or something, this is as good as it's going to get for Texas under Sark.  And 98% of the programs out there would love to trade places with Texas.

[medinabuckeye1]

And I'll add, I'm not saying Texas should fire Sarkisian.  He's about 1000x better than the previous two coaches plus the final 3 years under Mack Brown.  I don't even know who Texas could realistically hire that would be better.

I just think Sark has hit his ceiling. Without some generational talent like Vince Young or something, this is as good as it's going to get for Texas under Sark.  And 98% of the programs out there would love to trade places with Texas.

I just have a couple things to say then I can move on.  

First, agree to disagree.  I tend to think that we fans and the media typically overreact to these "trends" but I agree with @betarhoalphadelta :

Methinks you're extrapolating too much from a sample size too small.

Ok fine, Sark has four straight losses to 'elite' teams and Day has a bunch of consecutive wins over elite teams.  I'd LOVE it if Day's run continued indefinitely but I don't think it will.  Day didn't suck when he lost to Michigan and he isn't invincible now that he has five consecutive wins over top-7 AP teams:

• vs #7 Tennessee, W
• vs #1 Oregon, W
• vs #4 Texas, W
• vs #3 Notre Dame, W
• vs #1 Texas, W

Day has lost some elite match-ups and, unfortunately, he will again.  I think that Sark will win.  

Remember when Stoops was "Big Game Bob", then he lost a bunch of those?  

Second, the single most underrated accomplishment in sports is beating the teams you *should* beat.  Day had an unbelievable streak in which he never lost to an unranked team and NOBODY gave him credit for it because he was "expected" to win those games but if it was easy then everybody would do it and they don't.  Day was phenomenal here for a while up until losing to unranked Michigan to end the 2024 season but then he catapulted that into beating elite teams.  Look at Texas' losses:

• AT #3 Ohio State by a TD
• VS #6 Ohio State by 14 in the semi-final
• VS #5 Georgia in the SECCG in Georgia
• VS #5 Georgia
• VS #2 Washington in the semi-final
• VS #12 Oklahoma in Dallas
• VS #12 Washington in the Alamo Bowl
• VS #4 TCU 
• AT #11 OkSU
• AT nr TxTech in OT
• VS #1 Bama

Texas hasn't lost to an unranked team in almost three years.  How many teams can say that?  On top of that, the TxTech loss was by a FG in OT in Lubbock.  Ohio State's most recent loss to an unranked team was also by a FG but it was at home and to a rival, much worse on both counts.  Bama's was last weekend.  

Ask Pete Carroll how easy it is to consistently beat the teams you *should* beat every single week.  He was famously near-perfect in Big Games but his teams also seemed to have a "WTF Loss" at least once a year.  

Texas, under Sark, is winning the games they *should* win plus plenty of games against quality opponents, last year they:

• Blew out #10 Michigan in Ann Arbor, ask Day how easy that is
• Blew out #18 Oklahoma in Dallas, ask Day how easy it is to blow out your rival
• Beat #25 Vandy in Memphis, ask Bama how easy that is
• Blew out Florida at home, ask Florida's next two opponents (LSU and Ole Miss) how easy that is
• Beat #20 aTm in College Station with the SECCG on the line
• Beat #12 Clemson
• Beat #10 ASU

On top of all of that it isn't like Texas has been completely outclassed by the elites that they have lost to.  The two games against Ohio State were both in contention DEEP into the 4th quarter and the SECCG went to OT.  To me, that isn't "not good enough to play those guys", that is coming up a little big short and the result will be different in other games.  

[utee94]

Rankings "at the time" are fool's gold.  Take a look at all of that using end-of-year rankings and it doesn't look quite the same.

But even so, again, I'm not saying Sark is "bad."  He's good.  Texas is good.

Texas isn't elite and the results prove that out.

[utee94]

  To me, that isn't "not good enough to play those guys", that is coming up a little big short and the result will be different in other games. 

Texas is good enough to not get blown out by elite teams.  Yes indeed.  But after going 0-5 in the last 5 games against elite teams, especially due to the same terrible redzone offense in each and every one of those games, I think it's fair to say there should be no expectation of the result being different in other games.

[utee94]

Anyway, Ohio State is definitely very good again.  Should be the favorite to win the NC again this year IMO.