Teams with 1st Loss Week 10:
Penn State
Iowa State
Pittsburgh
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 10:
Liberty
Texas A&M
Clemson
Kansas State
Memphis
Navy
Teams with 1st Win Week 10:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Week 4: 39.5% (17 of 43)
Week 5: 26.9% (7 of 26)
Week 6: 36.8% (7 of 19)
Week 7: 8.3% (1 of 12)
Week 8: 9.1% (1 of 11)
Week 9: 20% (2 of 10)
Week 10: 37.5% (3 of 8)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 4
-We are down one this week as we can no longer have 3 undefeated teams in the Big Ten before the championship game. If Oregon and Indiana win out, they'll play in the Big Ten Championship. Our remaining possibilities of undefeateds at the end of the regular season are Indiana/Oregon, Miami (FL), BYU, and Army.
Maximum Number of Games between Undefeated Teams in the Regular Season: 1
-We dropped two this week as we now only have one undefeated team in both the ACC and Big 12. Our only remaining possibility for an undefeated match-up in the regular season is if Oregon and Indiana win out and play in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Week 10 Thoughts:
-The Big 12 and the ACC odds at two in the playoff took a hit this week. In the Big 12, Iowa State lost for the first time and Kansas State for a 2nd. The only way the conference has a non-champ with less than 2 losses now is if BYU wins out, but loses the Big 12 Championship. There might be other paths to get two in, but that is the highest probability way to. If the Big 12 is relying on a 2-loss team to make it in (outside as a champion), they need a lot of upsets across the country.
-In the ACC, 1-loss SMU beat previously unbeaten Pitt. Because of that and the Clemson loss, SMU is now in position for the ACC Championship if they win out (a great story; although one I doubt the ACC is happy with in year 1). Clemson losing to Louisville was surprising, but not stunning as Louisville has played better than their record has shown. It takes Clemson out of control of their destiny for the ACC Championship. As Clemson was rising up the rankings before the game, the loss hurts the ACC. Clemson now needs a decent bit of outside help to make the top 11/12 without winning the conference. We do now have two possibilities left that will leave the ACC with a non-champ who has 1-loss. Those are Miami (FL) winning out, but losing the ACC Championship and Pitt winning out, but not making the ACC Championship (SMU winning out would leave them ACC Champs). Pitt isn't getting a ton of credit right now given the record, but they do still have games with Clemson and Louisville left. I am not sure whether as non-champs, a 2-loss Clemson or a 1-loss Pitt would stand a better chance, but I would lean to the latter and think by the end of the season, they would be close to where they need to be. A 2-loss SMU might be in the running if things break right as you could see them end up with two losses to a Big 12 champ BYU and an undefeated Miami.
-The Big Ten saw Ohio State beat Penn State in Happy Valley. This keeps Ohio State in control of their Big Ten race and continues the trend of Penn State doing well, but not quite able to get over the top. Penn State still does completely control their playoff destiny. Oregon for their part, went to Michigan and won convincingly at the Big House. Indiana demolished Michigan State to go to 9-0. They play Ohio State the week before the OSU/Michigan game in a game that might determine who goes to the Big Ten Championship as improbable as that would have sounded before the year. A ranked Illinois lost to a Minnesota team who has quietly had a good year and UCLA is kind of coming to life in the 2nd half of the season.
-In the SEC, we saw Texas A&M fall to South Carolina a week after taking the top spot in the conference by themselves. With two losses now (one out of conference to Notre Dame), they now have no margin for error to make the playoff. One more loss will probably do them in. Meanwhile, Georgia and Tennessee had 2nd half comebacks against rival Florida and Kentucky. The conference now has five teams with a single conference loss so the race is very open.
Group of 5 Playoff spot:
-In the American, we saw Army take a step to the Commander-in-Chief Trophy as they beat Air Force, but the conference had both its one loss teams lose with Memphis and Navy losing to UTSA and Rice respectfully. If Army does not win the conference, it will be a 2-loss or more champ in the American now. A two loss team can take the Group of 5 spot, but contenders will be looking around for help in other conferences.
-In the Mountain West, Boise State easily won. Winning out, they'll beat out anyone except an undefeated Army. 2-loss UNLV was off and 3-loss Colorado State won. Both of those two are still in the race, but need help from other conferences to get in (Colorado State would need a lot, but are undefeated in conference so far with decent out of conference losses).
-Louisiana won a close game against Texas State to remain with a single loss. They are likely the Sun Belt's only chance, but they did get help outside the conference this week so I think their odds are up a bit.
-The MAC and Conference USA are likely out of the playoff race, but I will note, as we enter November, we do see Western Michigan arrive as the only team undefeated in the MAC and Liberty does not have pull position in Conference USA again this year after back to back losses. Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky lead the conference; both at 4-0.
Week 11 Thoughts:
We have no games between undefeated and 1-loss teams this week or two 1-loss teams.
Ohio at winless Kent State (Wednesday): Kent State is still looking for their first win. They are 18.5 point underdogs here though.
Undefeated Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech: The Hurricanes are 11 point favorites. The ACC really needs them to keep winning.
1-loss Georgia at Ole Miss: This has a c lose spread and large implications. Ole Miss has two losses, but likely controls their playoff destiny. A loss here likely puts them out of playoff contention. Georgia could almost certainly afford a loss here for the playoff, but likely not for the SEC Championship. Georgia is a 2.5 point road favorite.
Michigan at undefeated Indiana: One team is undefeated and a two touchdown favorite. This still feels surreal. Indiana looking to go 10-0. On the other side, winning this would do a lot to bring confidence Michigan will be fine after this year.
1-loss Iowa State at Kansas: The Big 12 could really use Iowa State to get things back on track after a close loss to Texas Tech last week, but they may have been over-performing before. They are 3 point road favorites to a Kansas team that fought Kansas State to the end two weeks ago.
Undefeated BYU at Utah: BYU is the last of the undefeateds in the Big 12, and it has won repeatedly while being underdogs or small favorites. Now they try to beat their instate rival they have struggled against of late. Utah, for their part, has had a disappointing season, but ending BYU's perfect season would be a huge deal for them. BYU is a 4.5 point favorite.
Undefeated Army at North Texas: North Texas has been playing well this year but lost the last two weeks to Memphis and Tulane. Army controls their playoff destiny, but are only a 6 point favorite in this game. The American and Notre Dame are going to root hard for Army to keep things going. Other playoff contenders will be rooting the opposite way.
Arkansas State at 1-loss Louisiana-Lafayette: Louisiana is a big favorite here. For their playoff chances, it would help to win like it.
Virginia at 1-loss Pitt and Clemson at Virginia Tech: Pitt is a touchdown favorite. The ACC would prefer them to keep winning and move up the rankings. It could also give the conference a decent ranked showdown next week if Clemson beats Virginia Tech.
Alabama at LSU: Both have two losses but are in the playoff running still. LSU still only has one conference loss so is stronger in the SEC race. The loser is out of both races. Alabama is a 2.5 point favorite.
Colorado at Texas Tech: Both are still in the running for the Big 12. Colorado would have the easier time of it with just one conference loss so far. They are 3.5 point favorites here.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, total: 5
Miami (FL)
Indiana
Brigham Young
Oregon
Army
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 0, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 0, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total 12
Southern Methodist
Boise State
Washington State
Georgia
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
Tennessee
Ohio State
Texas
Penn State
Iowa State
Pittsburgh
Remaining Winless Teams: MAC: 1, total: 1
Kent State
