One thing I'll point out about 2004... That Purdue team was LEGIT. We had a hell of a defense, and the offense was positively humming. You can say we beat a Notre Dame team that didn't turn out to be that good, but we didn't just beat them. We utterly humiliated them, in South Bend.
During the Wisconsin game, I believe on the very play that produced "the fumble", Kyle Orton suffered a hip pointer. I believe he ended up suffering another on the opposite hip the next week. So for that four-game stretch of four close losses, he was playing hurt with one or two hip pointer injuries. And as you point out, three of those four losses were to teams that finished with 9 or 10 wins.
So don't sleep on that 2004 team. That team may have been better than the 2000 team that went to the Rose Bowl.
That 2004 game is hard to evaluate even with hindsight. Sometimes a game looks like an upset at the time but then looking back it doesn't. In this case it is just two teams in weird situations. If you evaluate it as Purdue at full strength against Ohio State's first half of 2004 team then it isn't an upset at all, the better team (by a wide margin) simply won the game. However, if you look at Ohio State's second half of 2004 team and compare them to Purdue with a gimpy Kyle Orton then I think it is fair to call it an upset because the Ohio State team that beat the league champions by 16, and beat IU, PSU, MSU, and OkSU should probably have beaten gimpy-Orton Purdue.
I guess I'll call the two teams something like about even with the caveat that it depends on which 2004 Purdue and which 2004 tOSU show up because it could be anything from Purdue being a much better team to Ohio State being a much better team. My point being that those two teams were a lot more up-and-down than normal.
You raise an interesting point about 2004 Purdue possibly being better than 2000 Purdue. At first glance that sounds borderline insane because 2000 Purdue is a legend as Purdue's only RoseBowl team in many decades while 2004 Pudue went to an also-ran Sun Bowl but I see what you mean. That 2004 team was oh-so-close to being so much more. Here are the final standings from 2004 with Purdue's result against each:
- 7-1 / 9-3 Michigan, Lost by 2 at home
- 7-1 / 10-2 Iowa, Lost by 2 on the road
- 6-2 / 9-3 Wisconsin, Lost by 3 at home
- 5-3 / 6-6 Northwestern, Lost by 3 on the road
- 4-4 / 8-4 Ohio State, Won by 7 at home
- 4-4 / 7-5 Purdue, n/a
- 4-4 / 5-7 Michigan State, DNP
- 3-5 / 7-5 Minnesota, DNP
- 2-6 / 4-7 Penn State, Won by 7 on the road
- 1-7 / 3-8 Illinois, Won by 8 on the road
- 1-7 / 3-8 Indiana, Won by 39 at home
It is odd that with the exception of Indiana, every league game for Purdue was a one-score game.
Imagine this clusterf*$k:
Change one play each in the PU/M and PU/IA games such that Purdue wins both. Now first place is a 4-way tie between:
- 6-2 Iowa beat UW, lost to PU and M, 1-2
- 6-2 Michigan beat IA, lost to PU, didn't play UW, 1-1
- 6-2 Wisconsin beat PU but lost to IA and didn't play M, 1-1
- 6-2 Purdue beat IA and M but lost to UW, 2-1
I *THINK* that based on the tiebreakers in effect at that time Purdue would have gone to the Rose Bowl based on their 2-1 H2H2H record.