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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6

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ohio1317

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Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6
« on: September 29, 2025, 11:01:56 PM »
Teams with 1st Loss Week 5:
Florida State
Texas Christian
Washington
Penn State
Louisiana State
Georgia
Arizona
Mississippi State
Southern California
Central Florida


Teams with 1st Win Week 5:
Miami (OH)


Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Week 3: 29.1% (16 of 55)
Week 4: 23.1% (9 of 39)
Week 5: 33.3% (10 of 30)

Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
6*: No changes this week. That leaves us the possibility of one undefeated in each of the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12, American, and Mountain West.


Note:  For this, I am continuing to use assumption no conference ends up with more than 1 until schedules get a little clearer. Someone on another board did go a bit more into: https://csnbbs.com/thread-1017541-post-2...id20335480

Week 5 Thoughts:
-I added the 1 loss list this week. I would guess that every team with a bye and most with home field in the 1st round of the playoff will be on either this or the undefeated list. Also any power 4 conference team who ends on one of these is almost certainly safe regardless of schedule (2 losses will be more dependent on schedule and who else is available). The Group of 5 conference playoff team will also most likely be on one of these lists (although 2-loss is definitely possible).

-Huge week of football.

-The ACC had a less than ideal week at the top, but avoided disaster. Florida State losing a Friday game to Virginia takes a little luster off next weeks Florida State-Miami game. It also means Florida State has less margin of error the rest of the year (although the Alabama win keeps looking better and better which might make them fine with 2 losses). Fortunately for the conference playoff possibilities, ranked Georgia Tech came back and undefeated Louisville did as well.

-Arizona State beat TCU in a close game to keep themselves once again strongly in the Big 12 race. With a loss to Mississippi State they cannot afford many more losses without winning the conference, but they could definitely repeat. Meanwhile, Iowa State continues to win, Cincinnati shows they might be taking a step up this year, Utah remains in the race, and BYU stayed unbeaten late at Colorado. This is still the most wide open conference in my view.

-Oregon won close one in a white out in Happy Valley. That is a huge road wins and sets them up well for Indianapolis. They do not play Ohio State this year, but do Indiana. Indiana was ugly, but victorious the road at Iowa and Illinois recovered from their loss last week to win a close one vs. USC. Ohio State won on a west coast trip to Washington.

-Alabama won on the road at Georgia and, once again are in the position of being favored to win the conference. Ole Miss beat LSU to go to 3-0 in conference play and increasingly look like a team who could be playing in Atlanta. Tennessee won against a Mississippi State team who has looked pretty good this year which keeps their playoff hopes off life support.

-Notre Dame beat Arkansas convincingly. The Irish are definitely not out of the playoff race.

-The favorites mostly won in the games involving major Group of 5 conference playoff contenders. I'll note the MAC now has no teams with fewer than 2 losses which likely eliminates their chances. I don't see a huge change in playoff chances after this week with the American having the advantage, the Mountain West the next best, and a scattering of other teams looking for a decent bit of help to get there (but help we have seen before).

Week 6 Thoughts:
We have 1 game between undefeated teams this week.

Undefeated Texas Tech at undefeated Houston: Texas Tech is ranked 11th and getting more national attention. Houston hasn't quite got that yet, but will move into the ranking and way up Big 12 championship odds with a win.

Winless Sam Houston at New Mexico State (Thursday): Sam Houston is favored on the road while looking for their first win.

1-loss Western Kentucky at 1-loss Delaware (Friday): Western Kentucky is favored to win Conference USA, but are underdogs in this game against FBS transitioning and Conference USA newcomer Delaware.

Undefeated Iowa State at 1-loss Cincinnati: Iowa State is ranked #14 (2nd highest in Big 12 right now), but a small underdog against a Cincinnati team that beat Kansas last week.

1-loss Texas at Florida: It has been a rough start for Florida, but they haven't gotten killed by anyone. They are less than a touchdown underdog here. Ohio State and the Big Ten would love Texas to keep winning. Texas winning does set-up a very interesting Red River Shootout.

Undefeated Vanderbilt at 1-loss Alabama: Can Vandy beat Alabama after they beat Georgia two years in a row? Vanderbilt has turned into a different program. This would take it to another level with a win and you would have to legitimately be talking playoffs.

1-loss Boise State at Notre Dame: Very big game for many reasons. Notre Dame cannot afford another loss and make the playoff. Boise State is the Mountain West favorite, but their early season blowout loss to South Florida is going to hurt them and the conference's chances vs. the American. A win here would help counter that.

1-loss Virginia at undefeated Louisville: Virginia is ranked after the Florida State win, but they could certainly switch spots with Louisville if they lose. Both are kind of dark horse playoff type teams. Virginia has a loss to North Carolina State, but a manageable schedule the rest of the way and Louisville remains unbeaten.

1-loss Washington at undefeated Maryland: Has to be one of the longest distances for a conference game. Maryland has been kind of a surprise this year. Washington looking to rebound from Ohio State loss.

Winless Oregon State at Appalachian State: Oregon State slightly favored to get their first win.

Undefeated UNLV at Wyoming: The last unbeaten Mountain West team is a small road favorite here.

Undefeated Miami at 1-loss Florida State: Miami a small favorite in this rivalry that is looking bigger this year. Florida State will likely OK for the playoff with 2 losses due to the Alabama win, but they would have to win out the rest of the year and still might sweat a bit. The conference might prefer that anyway as Miami will stay toward the top of the national polls with a win. Two losses would definitely take Florida State out of control of their ACC hopes.

Undefeated Navy at Air Force: Navy is still unbeaten going into the start of the commander and chief trophy games. Another American vs. Mountain West game


Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 3, American: 3, Big 12: 4, Big Ten: 4, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 5, total: 20
Maryland
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
Iowa State
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Louisville
Indiana
Ohio State
Memphis
Houston
Brigham Young
UNLV
Oregon
Vanderbilt
Mississippi
North Texas
Navy

1-Loss Teams: ACC: 3, American: 2, Big 12: 6, Big Ten: 8, Conference USA: 3, Mountain West: 4, SEC: 6, Sun Belt: 4, total: 36
Virginia
California
Florida State
Tulane
South Florida
Arizona State
Cincinnati
Utah
Arizona
TCU
Central Florida
Michigan
Minnesota
Southern California
Illinois
Michigan State
Nebraska
Penn State
Washington
Louisiana Tech
Western Kentucky
(Delaware)
Fresno State
Boise State
New Mexico
San Diego State
Alabama
Georgia
Louisiana State
Tennessee
Texas
Mississippi State
James Madison
Old Dominion
Louisiana-Monroe
Texas State

Remaining Winless Teams: Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, MAC:1, PAC-12: 1, total: 4
UCLA
Sam Houston
Oregon State
Massachusetts
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ManHawk

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6
« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2025, 08:34:57 AM »
Looks like the Big Ten is down to just the Big 4.  Ohio St,  Oregon,  Indiana and....

Maryland?
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utee94

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6
« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2025, 09:37:56 AM »
Seems appropriate for this thread:


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MrNubbz

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6
« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2025, 10:24:30 AM »
Well Texas was
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6
« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2025, 11:35:58 AM »
Crazy formatting/data question:

Years ago you mentioned that the schools were listed by conference affiliation from long ago.

I noticed that on the undefeated list Maryland is listed with ACC and Oregon is listed where the PAC should be but . . .

On the one-loss list USC and Washington are listed with the B1G.

Just curious. 
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6
« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2025, 07:04:10 PM »
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6
« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2025, 07:06:52 PM »
Quote from: ManHawk on September 30, 2025, 08:34:57 AM
Looks like the Big Ten is down to just the Big 4.  Ohio St,  Oregon,  Indiana and....

Maryland?
Will Maryland fall off of a cliff, the instant the calendar flips from September to October? 
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FearlessF

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6
« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2025, 07:33:09 PM »
hope so, Huskers travel there soon
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ohio1317

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6
« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2025, 12:27:11 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 30, 2025, 11:35:58 AM
Crazy formatting/data question:

Years ago you mentioned that the schools were listed by conference affiliation from long ago.

I noticed that on the undefeated list Maryland is listed with ACC and Oregon is listed where the PAC should be but . . .

On the one-loss list USC and Washington are listed with the B1G.

Just curious.
The undefeated list I copy and paste every year and just put new teams on bottom which I kind of like as a nod to the past.  The 1-loss list with teams coming and going I just start from scratch.  This week it is perfectly by conference as I looked at the conference standing to generate but anyone who loses this week will just be put at the bottom next week not with other conference mates.  I could adjust that, but that's how I have always done it so far.
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ohio1317

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6
« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2025, 12:28:18 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 30, 2025, 07:06:52 PM
Will Maryland fall off of a cliff, the instant the calendar flips from September to October?
Been kind of a surprise team so far for sure to me.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 6
« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2025, 08:18:52 AM »
Quote from: ohio1317 on October 01, 2025, 12:27:11 AM
The undefeated list I copy and paste every year and just put new teams on bottom which I kind of like as a nod to the past.  The 1-loss list with teams coming and going I just start from scratch.  This week it is perfectly by conference as I looked at the conference standing to generate but anyone who loses this week will just be put at the bottom next week not with other conference mates.  I could adjust that, but that's how I have always done it so far.
Thanks, just curious 
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