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Topic: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...

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Cincydawg

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Cincydawg

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Re: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...
« Reply #57 on: December 14, 2019, 08:54:17 AM »
Yeah, once a thing has been built it costs money to shut it down if the investment was made for a 30-40 year life and it's being shut down after 10.

I think "we" should include the cost of taking out old wind turbines in the calculation as well.  I read the lifetime is about 20 years, and I have seen quite a few derelict abandoned turbines in CA in the fields.  

HK_Vol

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Re: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...
« Reply #58 on: December 14, 2019, 09:01:31 AM »
I think the presumed life of a wind turbine is 20 years, coal is around 50 years and nuclear is around 40 years.
So if those lifespans are calculated into the assumptions, then scrapping at the end of its lifespan is unexpected.
Nuclear oftentimes gets extensions to their original lives - much less so for coal...

Cincydawg

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Re: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...
« Reply #59 on: December 14, 2019, 09:07:33 AM »
Recent news is that a nuclear plant in Florida got approval for 80 years.  Life time extensions obviously are economically attractive, if they are done properly.

In Indiana near Chicago, the skyline is littered with abandoned steel mills.  Those areas can't be redeveloped because the owners abandoned the mills and there was no provision for "recycling" or remediation back then.

HK_Vol

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Re: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...
« Reply #60 on: December 15, 2019, 04:28:58 AM »
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HK_Vol

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Re: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...
« Reply #61 on: December 15, 2019, 04:44:51 AM »
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Cincydawg

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Re: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...
« Reply #62 on: December 15, 2019, 09:08:26 AM »
I find the scientific side of this story interesting, but the political side is boring, replete with misrepresentations on "both sides", who cherry pick constantly, and refuse to consider ALL of the information and data available.

https://judithcurry.com/?fbclid=IwAR0AJ6qn4oN1UYYTdoCoJ9YU09ELp2ZLSmIbA4-T31glEfQnthgbqBvJv34

I find her blog interesting, she cites a LOT of papers out there.  She is sort of "in the middle", I agree with a lot of what she says.  She has been a thorn in the sides of "both sides" at times.  And she does have some credentials in the area.

Obviously, I just looked at the numbers a while back and realized that "we" are not remotely going to reduce CO2 emissions anything like what would be required, so it makes the rest of the discussion somewhat moot.

Cincydawg

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Re: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...
« Reply #63 on: December 15, 2019, 12:49:52 PM »
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/02/Curry-2017.pdf

A mathematical "model" of some natural event can be useful to the extent it helps predict the future.  The problem with climate change models (CCMs) is that the response is slow to happen.  We don't really see much change even over a decade in "climate" that can be measured.  So, they are based on what has happened up until now.  And there are at least seven major models out there.  Each conforms to what we think has been happening over time as a function of CO2 generation (mainly).  That of course presumes we have measured whatever is happening properly, which is another issue.

It is possible these CCMs have been fit to the past but have no predictive value, it happens.  We simply can't know, ahead of time.  No climate measurement over the next 25 years is likely to be specific enough that one can state "OK, the CCMs were right all along, or close enough to it."

The other side of this of course is that things COULD be worse than the models forecast.  That would be really bad.

We're still not going to do much of anything about it, so the topic, for me, is academic and a bit moot.

Cincydawg

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Re: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...
« Reply #64 on: December 15, 2019, 04:45:21 PM »
https://judithcurry.com/2019/12/14/the-toxic-rhetoric-of-climate-change/

Interesting response to a young person seriously worried about dying because of CC.  The hysteria of this reminds me of the hysteria we encounter about a bunch of other stuff, people go looking for crises to worry about (and post about).  I understand being suitable aware and concerned of real risks, but many humans today seek out areas they can hype into some major issue and worry.

Why?  Why not vie for realism and a rational assessment of risk?  I suppose it's inherent in the day of Social Media such as this place.  

HK_Vol

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Re: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...
« Reply #65 on: December 16, 2019, 03:41:44 AM »
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billyboy75

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Re: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...
« Reply #66 on: December 16, 2019, 07:06:52 AM »
https://judithcurry.com/2019/12/14/the-toxic-rhetoric-of-climate-change/

Interesting response to a young person seriously worried about dying because of CC.  The hysteria of this reminds me of the hysteria we encounter about a bunch of other stuff, people go looking for crises to worry about (and post about).  I understand being suitable aware and concerned of real risks, but many humans today seek out areas they can hype into some major issue and worry.

Why?  Why not vie for realism and a rational assessment of risk?  I suppose it's inherent in the day of Social Media such as this place. 
I read her article, and I found it refreshing and, hopefully, accurate.  thanks for posting it.

Here is an interesting interview with a knowledgeable scientist.  When I posted it on facebook, it generated an automatic disclaimer declaring it to be incorrect.  The PC police, in other words, reject his conclusions:  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA5sGtj7QKQ

Cincydawg

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Re: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...
« Reply #67 on: December 16, 2019, 08:09:54 AM »
https://judithcurry.com/2019/12/14/the-toxic-rhetoric-of-climate-change/#comment-905069

Interesting comments, some of them.  I'd note again that Curry is not a "Denier" in the typical sense, she is just saying we can't know what some say we know here, and rather convincingly, to me anyway.  I think climate is simply too complex to model reliably.  Models can be contrived to fit what we think we know about the last century, but that doesn't mean they are predictive.  They MAY be close, it's possible, and things could be worse than they predict.


Cincydawg

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Re: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...
« Reply #68 on: December 16, 2019, 08:27:59 AM »
As I note many times, this is a topic ripe for cherry picking.  Trying to ingest and consider ALL of the information is really impossible.  So, it's easy to form your conclusion and then seek only the "studies" that support same while denigrating and discounting anything contrary.  Curry tries to take it all in and leaves one in a confused state if you are honest with it all.  And of course she gets derived by the True Believers who simply wish to diminish her message and render her without a voice.


Cincydawg

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Re: Yet Another Climate Meeting taking place ...
« Reply #69 on: December 17, 2019, 05:34:12 AM »
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/474654-climate-negotiators-postpone-decision-on-carbon-markets

The countries agreed to do something by 2050.  Yay.  I'm impressed.  not.

 

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