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Topic: Why polls are wrong...

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Kingsvol

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Why polls are wrong...
« on: September 15, 2020, 10:04:06 PM »
... I think they do this to help discourage republicans. But as the election gets closer they use more correct methodology to show the race tight so they can claim they are accurate.

Trump isn’t losing if he gets the most black vote since Nixon and the most Latino votes ever.  Just ain’t happening


https://twitter.com/stevedeaceshow/status/1305989987897401344?s=21


HK_Vol

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fuzzynavol

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Re: Why polls are wrong...
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2020, 07:44:54 AM »
In 2016, older voters were one of Trump’s best demographics. According to exit polls, while Hillary Clinton won voters 45 and under by 14 percentage points, Trump won voters 45 and older—the larger age cohort—by 8 points. A separate Pew Research Center study of the electorate found that voters 65 and older were Trump’s strongest overall age demographic last time around. He won them by 9 points.

Cincydawg

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Re: Why polls are wrong...
« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2020, 07:47:43 AM »
The national vote of course is not that important and neither are national polls unless they show a large spread.

Trends may be interesting.

Beastdog

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Re: Why polls are wrong...
« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2020, 01:11:41 PM »
Rasmussen has Trump ahead by 1% nationally in his latest poll released today. On the same day, a CBS poll that MASSIVELY oversamples claims Sleepy Joe is up by 9 points. If you correct it for 2016 voter splits (36/33/31 D/R/I) he's ahead by 4.9%.

Truth is likely somewhere in between those extremes (+1  to -4.9).

Let's see where things are after the first debate. It's more likely this will create energy for a "replace Sleepy Joe" movement than it is that the polls WON'T move in DJT's direction after the debate.

 

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