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Topic: The Case for More Renewable Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: The Case for More Renewable Energy
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2019, 05:21:55 AM »
Very speculative, and I would doubt 18% wind power is causing these cut offs.  For one thing, that 18% is pretty well spread around, so even if a location has high winds, other would not, the drop might only be single digit percentages, and the grid should be able to compensate.  They still have one nuclear plant and NG plants, and the NG plants can be fired up quickly if wind power drops.  So, that 17.9% figure is misleading in terms of what power COULD be generated if all of that dropped out due to high winds.

It does highlight one issue with wind/solar, you still need considerable backup power from something, a mix of nuclear and NG being the best two options.  Utilities love NG because it can come on line very quickly and then go quiet quickly without strain.  They are basically like jet engines on aircraft with a few mods for ground use.


IMAVOL

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Re: The Case for More Renewable Energy
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2019, 08:26:39 AM »


Just a stab in the dark.  Given:
1. The above statement
2.  Your handle
3.  The statement you made in another thread that a poster would be surprised at your education 

You must be an engineer retired from GE Aviation

Cincydawg

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Re: The Case for More Renewable Energy
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2019, 08:44:10 AM »
Must be?  No other possibility exists?

HK_Vol

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Re: The Case for More Renewable Energy
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2019, 09:39:25 PM »
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Case for More Renewable Energy
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2019, 07:43:44 AM »
No grid can ever be 100% wind and solar unless it is truly massive and distributed.  The wind in a smaller region can die down below demand at night (or be o strong the turbines shut down).  You HAVE to have some means of backup.  Batteries are expensive obviously and the hydro idea is rarely employed because folks don't like dams.

That leaves NG, at least as backup power.

But the numbers don't lie, and many have published the facts around this but they are viewed as naysayers and don't get the publicity.  The world won't come anywhere near meeting these goals, which in any even are too limited if the models are close to correct.

HK_Vol

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Re: The Case for More Renewable Energy
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2019, 08:17:04 AM »
Battery costs are dropping dramatically.
Already economically feasible in high cost places like Hawaii.
Will become more economic in other areas as prices continue to drop.


Cincydawg

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Re: The Case for More Renewable Energy
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2019, 08:22:10 AM »
Battery prices may be dropping but the amount of power they would need to have stored strikes me as impracticable if we're talking about a major grid.

I have not run the numbers on this of course, but how large a battery would be needed to replace say one NG turbine?

I'd bet it would be huge, and expensive.

Cincydawg

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Re: The Case for More Renewable Energy
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2019, 08:26:42 AM »
The General Electric 9HA claimed 41.5% simple cycle efficiency and 61.4% in combined cycle mode, with a gas turbine output of 397 MW to 470 MW and a combined output of 592 MW to 701 MW. Its firing temperature is between 2,600 and 2,900 °F (1,430 and 1,590 °C), its overall pressure ratio is 21.8 to 1.

I found this quickly on wiki.

https://news.energysage.com/battery-backup-power-vs-generators-which-is-right-for-you/

The exact amount that you’ll pay to install backup power at your home or business depends on the amount of power you need and the equipment you choose. There are many standby generator options available in the $3,000 to $5,000 range that can power a standard American home. By comparison, a home backup battery will start at around $6,000 before installation costs, and in many cases, you’ll require multiple batteries to provide whole-home power. Altogether, you can expect to pay anywhere from $10,000 to $20,000 to install a battery backup system. If you use more energy than your neighbors, you’ll need to buy a bigger generator or more batteries, and you can expect the installation cost to add up to a few thousand dollars to your total price tag.

The NG turbine of course is far more efficient than a typical home gasoline powered generator.  I think the equation heavily favors the NG turbine.


HK_Vol

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Re: The Case for More Renewable Energy
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2019, 08:46:03 AM »
There will be the equivalent of two nuclear reactors worth of battery storage built in the next five years.
Not that much, but the trend is worth noting.


https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41813

SNIP:
At the end of 2018, the United States had 862 MW of operating utility-scale battery storage power capacity and 1,236 MWh of battery energy capacity. By either measure, more than 90% of operating battery capacity used lithium-ion based batteries. Increased demand for lithium-ion batteries in electronics and vehicles has led to continued performance improvements and cost reductions for those batteries.

Assuming currently planned battery system additions are completed and no current operating capacity is retired, total utility-scale battery storage power capacity in the United States could exceed 2,500 MW by 2023.

 

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