in your scenario, which is heavily leaned toward an answer you seek, doesn't matter one bit.
it's a RIGHT recognized by the CONSTITUTION. It isn't going anywhere.
and your odds be damned, IF I ever face an aggressor is all that matters. I'm not going to waste my time explaining to them or you about odds.
you're like a guy i once knew who smarted off to a stranger in a bar, and when the guy clocked him he stood there dumbfounded literally wondering out loud why the guy hit him... it isn't the way things were supposed to happen in his head... the odds were against it in his head... it was just SO unfair...
I'm not going to be a victim, Fuzz, because I accept responsibility for myself and family. odds be damned. likelihood not even measured.
and this isn't even delving into the 'tyranny of the government' aspect.
but..... just for fun.... if these things are SO unlikely in either case, why are you even arguing about who has or doesn't have a gun? Why do you care if the odds are so unlikely?