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Topic: Electricity Update Pt 7

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HK_Vol

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #28 on: February 28, 2019, 09:47:48 AM »
I'm running the numbers at present at work - but I'm at home so this is off the top of my head.

I think that five states will generate more than 1/3rd of their electricity from wind by 2021 with three of them generating more than 40% of their electricity from wind.

Texas is the largest producer of electricity of any state - and they'll be producing more than 20% of their electricity from wind and solar in three years' time.


Cincydawg

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #29 on: February 28, 2019, 10:01:35 AM »
I'm more interested in the projections nationally, and then globally.

Is it possible to double W/S by 2030?  Is that a realistic rough projection?  Could it triple?  

Taking coal down to single digits would be a good step in my view for a variety of reasons.

I think NG is going to be around for a while (and nuclear).

Cincydawg

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #30 on: February 28, 2019, 10:02:22 AM »



Cincydawg

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #31 on: February 28, 2019, 10:04:29 AM »
The AEO2018 Reference case projects natural gas to remain the leading source of electricity generation in the United States through 2050, accounting for 35% of electricity generation, an increase from 31% in 2017. Projected natural gas growth in electric power generation is supported by increased competitiveness with renewables after the expiration of renewable tax credits in the mid-2020s and the relatively low forecast natural gas prices throughout the projection.

So, the projection is for NG to grow as a fraction of the grid supply, albeit slowly.  


HK_Vol

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #32 on: February 28, 2019, 10:05:25 AM »
Yep.  Natural gas production up 50% in a decade.
As natty is often a byproduct of oil drilling, any money that a driller gets from the gas that comes out from the well is considered "free money."  So plenty of supply has emerged.

Fracking has been an amazing growth engine - in spite of the Obama Administration's efforts to stop it.  (New York State has actually been successful - watch for brownouts in the winter time as they have banned not only fracking, but any new pipelines crossing the state).


Cincydawg

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #33 on: February 28, 2019, 10:08:15 AM »
The rise in petrochemical production in the US was the example I would use to illustrate how a President may not be responsible for some things that happen during his term, for better or worse.  One poster seemed to think my question was a trick question, I think he views me as a Trump devotee.  Others view me as a Yankee liberal.

It's amusing at times.

HK_Vol

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #34 on: February 28, 2019, 10:10:17 AM »
As for solar, the numbers look as if by 2021, 1/6th (16.6%) of all electricity generated in the Southwest (California, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada & Utah) will be from solar.  Pretty amazing given that the number was close to zero less than a decade ago.

If I recall correctly, in a couple of years, 75% of the electricity produced in Oregon and Washington will come from wind, solar & hydro (mainly hydro - but over 10% wind in Oregon).

So the mantra that a Tesla is tethered to a coal plant carries no weight in the the Northeast or Northwest.  Both generate less than 3% of their electricity from coal plants.

Cincydawg

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #35 on: February 28, 2019, 10:12:48 AM »
One might argue we need no massive national investment because it's already happening on its own.

HK_Vol

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #36 on: February 28, 2019, 10:34:17 AM »
One might argue we need no massive national investment because it's already happening on its own.

This.....+100


DunkingDan

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #37 on: February 28, 2019, 06:04:36 PM »
Capacity retired and added in 2019 and 2020 (megawatts):

Capacity Retired:20192020Total
Coal3,9871,6985,685
Natural Gas2,0662,8994,965
Nuclear1,4822,5143,996
Total7,6967,14314,839
Capacity Added:20192020Total
Wind11,2938,95220,245
Natural Gas8,01015,39023,400
Solar4,8936,56111,454
Total24,73931,59256,331

Capacity Retired:20192020Total
Coal51.8%23.8%38.3%
Natural Gas26.8%40.6%33.5%
Nuclear19.3%35.2%26.9%
Total97.9%99.6%98.7%
Capacity Added:20192020Total
Wind45.6%28.3%35.9%
Natural Gas32.4%48.7%41.5%
Solar19.8%20.8%20.3%
Total97.8%97.8%97.8%
Most coal plants are so old it is to costly to properly maintain them and upgrade them to today's standards.
As a note there is still movement to try to keep TMI open and running.
Need to ck on the nukes that may be built at Oak Ridge. Still future plans for more units at Watts Bar. 
The attempted sale of Bellafonte (sp) has been mishandled. Hopefully it will go though at some point.
Browns Ferry was upgraded and each unit now produces ~ 200 more MW 
President Harry S. Truman said: “The fundamental basis of this nation’s laws was given to Moses on the Mount.  The fundamental basis of our Bill of Rights comes from the teachings…  If we don't have the proper fundamental moral background, we will finally wind up with a totalitarian government which does not believe in rights for anybody except the state.”

HK_Vol

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #38 on: March 01, 2019, 03:01:39 AM »
Average age of a coal plant today is 40 years old and the average age of a nuclear plant today  is 37 years old.

88% of all coal plants were constructed over 30 years ago.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30812

To be shuttered in the next two years (pct. of total capacity):
North Carolina - 4%
Kentucky - 5%
Ohio - 6%
Virginia - 11%
Michigan - 6%
Arizona - 50%
Washington - 50%

Oregon shuts down its only plant in January 2021.
Washington shuts down its last plant at the end of 2025.
The only coal plant on the west coast will be a 57 megawatt plant in California - a mere rounding error.

There are only 2 plants left in New England - one in Connecticut and one in New Hampshire.
And the Connecticut plant gets shuttered in two years.

25% of Colorado coal goes away in 5 years.
By 2025, the entire coal capacity from the Rockies to the Pacific coast will be about the same as West Virginia and Kentucky have today.  About 22,000 megawatts. That's not very much.


« Last Edit: March 01, 2019, 03:28:00 AM by HK_Vol »

HK_Vol

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #39 on: March 01, 2019, 03:37:28 AM »
Percent electricity coming from coal in 2018:

Northeast (New England plus New York and New Jersey):  0.9% (3.6% in 2015)
West Coast (Washington, Oregon and California):  1.9%

Texas is by far the biggest generator of electricity (11.5% of the national total).
By 2021, it is likely that Texas will get more electricity from solar and wind than they get from coal.

Kansas is likely to get more electricity from wind than coal by 2021.
Oklahoma gets nearly double the amount of electricity from wind than from coal.

I'd say there is a decent chance that coal produces less than 25% of US electricity in two years' time.

I doubt that hardly anyone would have predicted in 2008 that coal would produce less than half of the then current amount of electricity within 12 years.  But it is going to happen.

Will it disappear entirely within another 12 years?



Cincydawg

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #40 on: March 01, 2019, 08:23:40 AM »
Very interesting data and perspective.  I suspect the newest coal plants will be around in ten years, whatever they are.  I know Wyoming has some sited right at coal mines, easier to ship electrons than coal.  And we'll be exporting coal to China for their plants.

How much new NG generating capacity is in the offing in a decade?  

What will our energy mix look like in ten years?  BG 35%???  Coal 7%  Hydro 13% or whatever it is now  W&S  18%?  Nuclear 20%?  I don't get to 100% obviously unless W&S is MUCH higher.  And what portion of the auto fleet will be plug in?

HK_Vol

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Re: Electricity Update Pt 7
« Reply #41 on: March 01, 2019, 09:49:33 AM »
Natural Gas is adding about 18,000 megawatts in the next 2 years.
So it will grow, but probably not by more than a percentage or so.

My guess is that in two years, coal loses another couple of percentage points while Natural Gas picks up 0.5% to 1% while wind and solar pick up 1% to 1.5%.

Nuclear is finally being taken offline, so it will likely drop 1% as well - picked up by natty, solar and wind.

Hydro is pretty fixed, with its fluxuations dependent on rainfall that year. 
Should be a good year for California and other places as the snowfall was excellent this year - so the snowpack is large.

At the margin, solar and wind will push out natty & coal as the fuel costs for solar and wind is zero while coal and natty has costs to get up and running.  As battery storage becomes a viable alternative, it will be really interesting.    Especially as you can position batteries much closer to the end consumer than you can with a peaker natural gas plant.


 

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