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Topic: Coronavirus update

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HK_Vol

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Re: Coronavirus update
« Reply #378 on: April 05, 2020, 04:02:33 AM »
https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/363724/#respond


YEP. AND AS NOTED, AN INTERESTING THING, DESPITE SIMILAR NUMBERS OF CHINESE AND SIMILAR CULTURE, THE PORTUGUESE WHO HAVE A PARALLEL, PRIVATIZED HEALTHCARE SYSTEM ARE FARING MUCH BETTER THAN ITALIANS AND SPANIARDS:  It was inevitable that socialized medicine gave up on the elderly with COVID-19.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus update
« Reply #379 on: April 05, 2020, 05:56:30 AM »
This was the very crude model I threw out 3 days ago with it doubling every 5 days or so:



The timing of Peak Death is obviously critical.  Italy may have passed that, but the curve there is coming down slower than it went up.  This graph need not be symmetric obviously.

Cincydawg

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus update
« Reply #381 on: April 05, 2020, 07:28:44 AM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

Another one I found interesting.  It does not present the President in a favorable light, so don't read it if that offends you.


Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus update
« Reply #382 on: April 05, 2020, 07:45:23 AM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/consider-possibility-trump-right-china/609493/

Also interesting, to me, and complementary to Trump, to some extent.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus update
« Reply #383 on: April 05, 2020, 09:58:33 AM »
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/491210-surgeon-general-this-is-going-to-be-the-hardest-and-the-saddest


“This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment and our 9/11 moment only it’s not going to be localized, it’s going to be happening all over the country,” Adams said.
He added, however, that there "is a light at the end of the tunnel if everyone does their part for the next 30 days.”
“There is hope but we’ve also got to all do our part.”




Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus update
« Reply #384 on: April 05, 2020, 11:10:45 AM »

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/04/826961777/u-s-may-get-more-ventilators-but-run-out-of-medicine-for-covid-19-patients


Patients on ventilators are usually heavily sedated.  We're running low on those medicines apparently.

And yes, this is NPR, if you read the article you probably will turn into a raving Leftist.

DunkingDan

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President Harry S. Truman said: “The fundamental basis of this nation’s laws was given to Moses on the Mount.  The fundamental basis of our Bill of Rights comes from the teachings…  If we don't have the proper fundamental moral background, we will finally wind up with a totalitarian government which does not believe in rights for anybody except the state.”

DunkingDan

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President Harry S. Truman said: “The fundamental basis of this nation’s laws was given to Moses on the Mount.  The fundamental basis of our Bill of Rights comes from the teachings…  If we don't have the proper fundamental moral background, we will finally wind up with a totalitarian government which does not believe in rights for anybody except the state.”

harvestalvol

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Re: Coronavirus update
« Reply #387 on: April 06, 2020, 11:34:52 AM »
Here is a more detailed breakdown on one of the models that the WH is using, and I am including it because it includes data on Alabama.  The modeling is projecting 91,000 deaths by June 1, and the numbers for Alabama actually look pretty bad, I assume because of the lack of a stay-in-place order.  This projects the peak for Alabama to hit 303 deaths on April 19.  In rural areas, you have natural social distancing, so the numbers shouldn't be as bad there, but if we hadn't taken these measures, it's possible every major city would be a hotspot with results like NYC.  We may never know the full impact, and I hope that in a few months, the numbers will be considerably less than the projections.  On another note, we had an employee in my company (different location) pass away from COVID-19 today. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-grim-death-toll-projections-the-white-house-offered-monday-have-already-been-revised-upward/ar-BB124S56?li=BBnbcA1
Projected death rate in AL declining rapidly.

https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/new-death-rate-projection-less-dire-for-alabama-no-longer-worst-in-nation.html


New projections released Sunday from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington paint a less frightening picture for Alabama as the state continues to face the COVID-19 pandemic.

The new projections show Alabama could still face anywhere from 378 to 1,996 coronavirus deaths by the middle of May, with a mean projection of fewer than 1,000 dead. Compare that with last week’s estimates, which were updated on April 1, and showed a mean projection of more than 5,000 deaths.

The projected death rate in Alabama fell from 11 in 10,000 people last week to a projection of fewer than 2 in 10,000 this week.

After the update, the projections cover two days that have already happened - April 4th and 5th. They projected Alabama to have had a range of total COVID-19 deaths between 44 and 98 on the 4th and between 50 and 128 on the 5th. Alabama had a total of 31 confirmed deaths by the 5th, and fewer than 41 reported or suspected coronavirus deaths.


Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus update
« Reply #388 on: April 08, 2020, 08:24:59 AM »
The UK, France, Italy, and Spain have 230 million residents and a projected death toll of 120,000.

The US has 330 million residents and a projected death toll of 82,000.

It could be worse here.

katmai

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Re: Coronavirus update
« Reply #389 on: April 08, 2020, 08:43:47 AM »
The UK, France, Italy, and Spain have 230 million residents and a projected death toll of 120,000.

The US has 330 million residents and a projected death toll of 82,000.

It could be worse here.
I saw where the US projection has been revised down to 60,000 by the end of August.  I hope that things improve enough that by the end of April, things can start returning to normal.  It may be a big mistake, but I have taken a chance and booked a trip to Canada in July.  I hope it works out.  The prices are really cheap right now. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus update
« Reply #390 on: April 08, 2020, 08:52:00 AM »
You should be able to cancel for a refund if it doesn't work out.  We still have a cruise in the Baltic in September on the books.  I will likely delay that one.

That is the only travel plans we have until a cruise in Greece in 2021.  The wife wants to do Hawaii over Christmas, I should check airline fares.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus update
« Reply #391 on: April 13, 2020, 12:01:24 PM »
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/13/833026903/hard-hit-spain-tries-a-gradual-easing-of-its-coronavirus-lockdown?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/13/833026903/hard-hit-spain-tries-a-gradual-easing-of-its-coronavirus-lockdown?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates

Several EU countries are looking to relax some of the shut down, so we should be able to monitor how this goes if they are two weeks ahead of us.

 

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