it's amazing that folks don't take note of these things.
thanks for the link!!!
a few years ago i had faith in a particular team to make a run. I'd done my due diligence and determined they had a shot much greater than any other in their conference to come out ahead- due not only to components and coaching, but also schedule. Then, I looked beyond their schedule and at their opponents schedule- and only did so because a fan of an opponent mentioned their team coming off a bye.
there was no shit four weeks in 'my' teams schedule where they were playing a quality opponent coming off a bye. the best statisticians can only offer 50/50 in such a condition... and guess how that ended? 25/75... My team dropped to third in the conference iirc.
it's these sneaky things that can derail what are often the better teams.
great post and thread, sir.